THE LUCK FACTOR

[ronl]

 We all like to pat ourselves on the back for being true wise men of the sport, but is our fate, at least to some degree, in the lap of the gods? Example: Brisbane Lions - Jonathan Brown absolutely explodes out of the blocks and blows the Brown/Fev theory to smithereens in 2 weeks, whilst 10 feet away  Mitchell Clark, a $500,000 premium ruckman plays the first 2 games like a spud rookie.  Months and months of planning could not have predicted either of these events.  So how big a part does Luck really play in our successes or failures? I'd guess about 30% overall. Any thoughts?

[Resch]

I agree at ~30%.

I reckon your final score is related to....

30% initial team selection
40% trading
30% luck

Not based on anything but experience and gut feel though 

[ossie85]

Player selection is almost always luck, player structure is skill (rookie placements, how many premiums and where).

[Pravis]

Hmm..I don't know about 30%, If i review my decision with going with Clark, i didn't research properly and the notion why he got big scores also evaded me. There was no one else to chop him out and his TOG was around 80% last year (that was a appx amount) I also didn't consider him being under done in terms of a pre season. I should of realised he had a shower pre season. Again Lack of researching.

I can also pick apart my decision not to select Brown. I was afraid they would be taking kicks of each other. Although Bradshaw is no Fev, he is a very serviceable FF and Brown was always posting  big scores then. I also didn't consider that teams wouldn't be lining up the best defender on Brown every week either. This is obviously to his advantage as well. And thirdly Fev takes away the 2 on 1 factor which has haunted brown for most of his career.

I would say 10 - 15% is luck. If you really break down your choice's and know the proper pro's and cons you will find what you considered luck to be oversight on your behalf.

[korza]

One of my last decisions was Brennan vs Gray.
With a shortfall of about 30k, i was stuck with the latter do we agree on bad luck.
Come first trade week i decided to downgrade Mackay to Butler and upgrade Gray to Brennan. I finally got my man with a return of 119pts. So  is that luck.
I agree you need a bit of luck,however you have to expect bad luck with injuries reports.
So in the long run it all balances out.

[DamenS]

I agree with Pravis - of course luck does play a big part, but Brown starting well (moving further up the field, Fev taking some of the defensive pressure off him, successful hip surgery, Brisbane easy start to season as regards opposition/fixturing) was utterly predictable as was Clark's slump (mainly uncertainty as regards his role in the team with Leunberger also fit), though Clark's 2 game slump has been larger than I predicted.

[ronl]

I see what a lot of you guys are getting at - and it's true - what seems like luck is really disappointment and poor planning  disguising itself as luck.  Disappointment in not doing our research properly.  Pravis, your analysis of Clark's poor start makes perfect sense in hindsight - poor research on my part.  Real "luck" is probably around 10-15% and centers on injuries, suspensions etc.

[Fenno]

Luck comes into it but not sure luck has come into how brown and clark have performed.
I picked brown from the start because my thinking was fev was going to get the extra little bit of attention and brown  could push up the ground a little bit and take some easy marks and I always had faith he would score well not this well but ave 100+
and Clark for me never came into consideration I thought he could maybe score like last year but I was more thinking having that extra ruckman come into the side would take points and TOG from him and this would send his ave closer to 70 than 100.
I spose its kind of lucky I thought this way but Im not calling it luck im calling it smart thinking

[Alex7089]

Luck comes into it but not sure luck has come into how brown and clark have performed.
I picked brown from the start because my thinking was fev was going to get the extra little bit of attention and brown  could push up the ground a little bit and take some easy marks and I always had faith he would score well not this well but ave 100+
and Clark for me never came into consideration I thought he could maybe score like last year but I was more thinking having that extra ruckman come into the side would take points and TOG from him and this would send his ave closer to 70 than 100.
I spose its kind of lucky I thought this way but Im not calling it luck im calling it smart thinking

Great minds think alike. I think for sure luck plays a part, but I think if you did the right research during the pre-season you would've realized about these two players, especially Brown. I was lucky in a way because on the Tuesday before round 1 I traded out Clark for Hille because I wanted the extra cash, well so far it hasn't payed off but I'm sure Hille can score well. Although i think something a lot of people haven't considered with Hille is his situation is similar to Clarks.
Hille was probably the second best ruckman in the league in '07, although in 2007 Ryder wasn't even thinking about going into the ruck, he was focusing on becoming a premier back. Well now Hilles back but he's got some competition this time. I think Hille will average 70-80 but should still be able to get within 50k of Cox about round 8.

[MissPiesFF]

Player selection is almost always luck, player structure is skill (rookie placements, how many premiums and where).

Ok good call ossie but do we want to win for our league and have our place in nice..or do we go for the weekly and go high on hype and in all be all and get that SCORE!!! that wins us the real $$$?

[ossie85]

Go for gold, but you should know by round 3 whether you're any chance! Then decide what you want to do.

I.e. I already know I'm out of the running, so I'm going for league wins

[brownmans muffins]

Go for gold, but you should know by round 3 whether you're any chance! Then decide what you want to do.

I.e. I already know I'm out of the running, so I'm going for league wins

interesting take O; how do you figure you're out of the running - too many poor scores already (thank you harvey, ziebell, clark this round; clark again last week...) and/or a few selections awry?? just interested.

[ossie85]

500 points behind the 8-ball after round 1, I imagine that will only increase after round 2 Also, I'm a pessimist

[ronl]

I think some percentage of those currently averaging 2400+ are there because of the luck factor.  You know, Brown instead of Pavlich, O'Keefe instead of Goodes, Higgins instead of Gian, Murphy instead of Hall - you know, the selections that could easily have gone either way.  When the horsetrading starts later on in round 8 or so, when teams need to be restructured as the cash cows start to be traded for premium upgrades, in a sense (no offence MP) the men will be separated from the boys.  Those who make the right decisions in that phase of the game, with a bit of luck re injuries etc. can rise rapidly.  So, Os, don't write yourself off just yet.  Of course, smart players who know what they're doing and currently averaging 2400+ admittedly will be hard to rundown.

[Hellopplz]

Go for gold, but you should know by round 3 whether you're any chance! Then decide what you want to do.

I.e. I already know I'm out of the running, so I'm going for league wins

well so am i. going for a top 10k ranking like last year so i'm happy with my first up 49k ranking. i make all my big moves come trade time.

luck always plays a part. not a huge part but can decide alot on your scores. alot of people got lucky they ran with the crowd and scored highly last round. but when they crash, they panic .