I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

Western Bulldogs
FB: Tom Williams, Brian Lake, Jarrod Harbrow
HB: Lindsay Gilbee, Dale Morris, Ryan Hargrave
C: Daniel Cross, Ryan Griffen, Nathan Eagleton
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
FF: Shaun Higgins, Barry Hall, Jason Akermanis
Fol: Ben Hudson, Matthew Boyd, Adam Cooney
Int: Will Minson, Daniel Giansiracusa, Liam Picken, Callan Ward
In: Eagleton
Out: Josh Hill
Iffy: Williams, Hill, Picken, Ward
Waiting: Hill, Brodie Moles, Jarrad Grant, Andrejs Everitt
Injured: Christian Howard

I complained in the v1 post about the difficulty of leaving out one of Eagleton, Ward, Hill and Picken. Now that Eagleton looks like he has recovered from the early-season knee surgery, the task is even tougher. Add to that the emergence of mature-aged rookie Moles and the move of Howard to the LTI list to make way for the likely-looking ex-Cat, and coach Rodney Eade has an embarrassment of riches to pick from. No wonder the Dogs are just about flag favourites.

Hahn has been tried as a tall defender in the preseason with some success, suggesting a more permanent move. I suspect, however, that this is merely insurance in case the oft-injured Williams goes down again. He returned to the forward line in his accustomed bullocking role this week, and I think he benefits the team more there anyway.

Collingwood
FB: Harry O’Brien, Simon Prestigiacomo, Alan Toovey
HB: Heath Shaw, Nathan J. Brown, Nick Maxwell
C: Alan Didak, Luke Ball, Leon Davis
HF: Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Tarkyn Lockyer
FF: Leigh Brown, John Anthony, Paul Medhurst
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Josh Fraser, Sharrod Wellingham, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams
In: L. Brown, Beams
Out: Sean Rusling, John McCarthy
Iffy: Wellingham, Toovey, Sidebottom, McCarthy
Waiting: Shane O’Bree, Tyson Goldsack, Ben Johnson, Ben Reid
Injured: Brad Dick, Cameron Wood, Josh Thomas

I didn’t want to do it. I had to pencil Leigh Brown in. Yes, Michael Malthouse is a crazy man. His latest half-cut babbling is that he wants to turn Rusling into a halfback. In your feverish, deranged dreams, Mick.

I’m not confident that both Beams and Sidebottom will play. The strongest arugment for them is that the Pies are going to try to break the record for home & away bench rotations, especially with Ball in the mix now, so younger legs going through midfield will be more important than old stagers like O’Bree or Johnson.

Fremantle
FB: Alex Silvagni, Chris Tarrant, Roger Hayden
HB: Adam McPhee, Luke McPharlin, Stephen Hill
C: Michael Barlow, Paul Hasleby, Paul Duffield
HF: David Mundy, Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne
FF: Des Headland, Michael Johnson, Hayden Ballantyne
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Byron Schammer
Int: Kepler Bradley, Anthony Morabito, Greg Broughton, Matthew de Boer
In: Silvagni, Bradley, Barlow, Morabito, de Boer
Out: Antoni Grover, Rhys Palmer, Dean Solomon, Nick Suban, Garrick Ibbotson
Iffy: Schammer, Solomon, Ibbotson, Suban
Waiting: Ibbotson, Steven Dodd, Michael Walters, Zac Clarke
Injured: Tim Ruffles, Grover, Palmer, Scott Thornton
Retired: Solomon

To listen to Docker fans, you’d think Freo had lost every NAB game by 15 goals. Thread after thread carping about poor preseasons by Ibbotson, Suban, Crowley, Schammer, Dodd, McPhee, Headland… the list of mediocre names goes on. Like the Fremantle list itself, actually.

Okay, so everyone wants to know what the deal will be with the Dockers’ multitudinous rookies who are demanding elevations with hot NAB form. We know that Fremantle have one automatic elevation slot for having only one veteran outside their list, plus Ruffles and Solomon have injuries long enough to be declared LTIs. Grover just about qualifies with his 6-8 week knee injury, and then there’s Thornton whose groin problems are chronic enough to make him an LTI candidate too. de Boer is assured one elevation spot, and even though Grover himself may not go on LTI, Silvagni must take another to cover for him on a list that is bereft of tall defender depth.

The two competitors for the third spot are Barlow and Pearce. I was watching Pearce’s games as much as Barlow’s during the NAB Cup and I thought Pearce’s numbers were inflated somewhat by cheapness that wouldn’t apply during the regular season, especially in the game against North where he sat at full back and took multiple +6 marks-and-kicks acting in the Joel Bowden role, switching to the winger on the fat side. His game on Saturday, on the other hand, was poor enough for some fans to write him off. Barlow is the well-deserved favourite for mine, and should be elevated into the Freo senior list… and onto the benches (if not starting) for thousands of fantasy squads.

Suban has certainly has a preseason to forget, going so badly as to make one wonder if he’s carrying an injury. Crowley and Schammer, meanwhile, may just be carrying a lack of skill. I don’t think coach Harvey has much of a choice with those two though, they have to play because the options aren’t any better. Ibbotson is the subject of much conjecture, with some questioning his commitment, though he seemd to do an okay job on Montagna in the NAB Cup semi-final. It does raise the question of whether Harvey can put Crowley, Ibbotson and de Boer in the one team if they’re all doing tagging roles, though it’s not unheard of.

Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Simon Goodwin, Nathan Bock, Andrew McLeod
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield
HF: Tyson Edwards, Taylor Walker, Myke Cook
FF: Trent Hentschel, Kurt Tippett, Richard Douglas
Fol: Ivan Maric, Bernie Vince, Nathan Van Berlo
Int: Jonathan Griffin, Shaun McKernan, Brent Reilly, Michael Doughty
In: Stevens, Reilly, Griffin, Douglas, Cook, McKernan
Out: Brad Symes, Chris Knights, Brad Moran, Brett Burton, Jason Porplyzia, Phil Davis
Iffy: Davis, Moran, Doughty, Walker
Waiting: Jack Gunston, Davis, Rory Sloane, James Sellar
Injured: Andy Otten, Brodie Martin, Symes, Knights, Moran, Burton, Porplyzia

I have some bad news for Phil Davis owners. Despite the Adelaide injury list going past a dozen, there still isn’t a place in the 22 for the kid. Your dreams of multipositional flexibility are going to have to rely on a different rookie. He’s not ready.

The SANFL is going to be fairly strong in round 1, I feel, because the recovery times of a lot of these injuries coincide with the opening game against Fremantle at Subiaco, but if I was Neil Craig I wouldn’t be risking the likes of the Birdman or the Porpoise on the hard turf of the west. Craig is such a stickler for fitness that I can see him risking the trip over the Nullarbor with a very understrength side, focusing on youth and pace instead of bigger bodies. Round 2 back at Footy Park against the Swans will merit a very different squad.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

Sydney
FB: Heath Grundy, Craig Bolton, Martin Mattner
HB: Tadhg Kennelly, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Rhyce Shaw
C: Kieren Jack, Brett Kirk, Ben McGlynn
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Goodes, Jude Bolton
FF: Jesse White, Daniel Bradshaw, Lewis Jetta
Fol: Mark Seaby, Josh P. Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
Int: Shane Mumford, Paul Bevan, Nick Malceski, Daniel Hannebery
In: Jetta, Hannebery, Kennedy, Bevan, McGlynn
Out: Craig Bird, Trent Dennis-Lane, Patrick VeszpremiTed Richards, Nick Smith
Iffy: Kennedy, Richards, Malceski, Hannebery
Waiting: Richards, Smith, Ed Barlow, Daniel Currie
Injured: Bird, Kristin Thornton

I have been asked often in the FF chat about Vesz. There is something weird going on with him, that much seems obvious. Some think he came back from the summer break too fat. Others say he’s been on some funky diet and gotten too thin. Others say he’s too muscly so the physio crew is trying to smooth him out, like he’s a holiday suitcase that won’t shut until you reposition the bottle of duty-free goon stored within. I think he’s turning into the smoke monster from Lost. It’s too freaky.

Meanwhile, the Swan fans have worked themselves into a lather over the practice match form of Hannebery, who apparently earned three Brownlow votes in the NAB on the weekend. I jest you not. Perhaps the Blood faithful have turned a little crazy after so many years of nothing to talk about in the preseason, and have gone a little sideways in the head after seeing their team earn an actual honest-to-goodness NAB Cup victory.

Bradshaw’s preparation has been nowhere in the preseason and the rehabilitation from his knee injury has always been hovering at or just after the date of the Round 1 clash with the Saints. Mind you, he also had very little preparation before the 2008 season after missing all of 2007, and then proceeding to play at his former level as if nothing had happened to his knee. Those of us who bought him that year remember with fondness the hard-to-find match reports on him playing barely anything of the fourth NAB game and winning it with a late goal. Bradshaw doesn’t need a preseason! He’s the Chuck Norris of preseasons. He can deliver a roundhouse kick to the preseason WITH HIS BAD LEG. That’s how awesome he is.

St Kilda
FB: Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, James Gwilt
HB: Farren Ray, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Jason Gram, Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo
HF: Stephen Milne, Nick Riewoldt, Adam Schneider
FF: Andrew McQualter, Justin Koschitzke, Sam Gilbert
Fol: Steven King, Clinton Jones, Leigh Montagna
Int: Ben McEvoy, David Armitage, Brett Peake, Jarryn Geary
In: McEvoy, Geary, McQualter
Out: Raphael Clarke, Michael Gardiner, Jason Blake
Iffy: Geary, Peake, Gwilt, McQualter
Waiting: Sean Dempster, Luke Miles, Tom Lynch, Steven Gaertner
Injured: Clarke, Gardiner, Blake, Jesse W. Smith, Jack Steven, Robert Eddy
Suspended: Andrew Lovett (club)
Retired: Jarryd Allen

The big story at St Kilda for fantasy is Armitage ensconcing himself in the Saints 22. With Hayes hanging onto his round 1 spot by a thread with a corked calf on the weekend - the same calf that has hampered him all preseason, apparently - and the injuries to Eddy and Steven, Armitage’s spot is now secure, at least for now. Whether he will get the same kind of terrible TOG that Luke Ball used to is another question.

The injuries to Clarke and Blake are more interesting for structural reasons. Blake, who may yet return from the back soreness that kept him out on Saturday night, is rather important to the St Kilda backline because he frees up Fisher to be the loose man. Gwilt has had some pretty impressive results playing much the same sort of role in the preseason on the likes of Goodes and Pavlich, albeit that those two were probably only going at half rat power. If coach Lyon decides Gwilt is not the answer to Goodes at full steam in the real stuff, he may have to sacrifice someone like Gilbert who he would otherwise want as a lead-up forward. That might open up a spot for Lynch in the forward line, who has also looked handy in the NAB.

Port Adelaide
FB: Paul Stewart, Alipate Carlile, Jacob Surjan
HB: Nathan Krakouer, Chad Cornes, Domenic Cassisi
C: Travis Boak, Steven Salopek, Justin Westhoff
HF: Jason Davenport, Warren Tredrea, Kane Cornes
FF: Brett Ebert, Jay Schulz, Daniel Motlop
Fol: Dean Brogan, Robbie Gray, Danyle Pearce
Int: Matthew Lobbe, Matthew Broadbent, Mitchell Banner, Cameron Hitchcock
In: Banner, P. Stewart, Schulz, Hitchcock
Out: Hamish Hartlett, Michael Pettigrew, Jackson Trengove, Matt Thomas
Iffy: Pettigrew, Thomas, Broadbent, Hartlett
Waiting: Scott Harding, Jay Nash, Nick Salter, Trengove
Injured: David Rodan, Hartlett, John Butcher
Suspended: Troy Chaplin

That bench still looks a little young and inexperienced to me, but I’ll go with it for now. Perhaps I’ve been reading too many Power fan 22s, which routinely contain six fan fave kids that no one else has ever heard of.

I have gone with Paul Stewart over Trengove for reasons of age - Trengove is 19 while Stewart is 22. The Kangaroos have some experienced talls up forward and the Power will need some bigger bodies in the absence of Chaplin and Pettigrew, with the latter not fit apparently. Whoever it is is going to be hard to justify buying for fantasy teams, with Chaplin lurking in the wings to return from suspension in round 2.

Port fans are also agitating for the second Stewart brother to be given a black-white-and-teal V-necked guernsey, as Paul has also shown a bit in the NAB. I think Schulz and Tredrea are enough in that structure, especially with Westhoff drifting forward and Motlop also able to mark overhead.

As for Hitchcock, his resemblance to Wade Thompson last year for fantasy purposes may extend all the way to playing two games to start the season then retreating into the mists of oblivion, because round 3 is the first week that Rodan’s banishment to the LTI list can be lifted. By then, Rodan will be 13 weeks into ACL recovery using the LARS technique that helped Malceski play again after 12.

I am still projecting Lobbe to play as second ruck, as I don’t rate Westhoff’s ability to actually touch the ball in the ruck. It’s all very well being a small, mobile ruckman, but you have to show that you can be treated seriously in the ruck contest itself. The Hoff is no Paul Dear, let alone Patrick Ryder. I see Cameron Cloke as a second-half option for Port, after round 11 with the free rookie elevation.

North Melbourne
FB: Lachie Hansen, Scott D. Thompson, Scott McMahon
HB: Leigh Harding, Nathan Grima, Michael Firrito
C: Levi Greenwood, Andrew Swallow, Liam Anthony
HF: Brent Harvey, Aaron Edwards, Matt Campbell
FF: Lindsay Thomas, David Hale, Ben Warren
Fol: Hamish McIntosh, Daniel Wells, Jack Ziebell
Int: Todd Goldstein, Brady Rawlings, Ryan Bastinac, Corey Jones
In: Bastinac
Out: Gavin Urquhart
Iffy: Edwards, Jones, Rawlings, Warren
Waiting: Daniel Pratt, Ben Ross, Robbie Tarrant, Sam Wright
Injured: Ed Lower, Ben Cunnington
Suspended: Drew Petrie

In the first version of this column I said fantasy fans would be interested to hear about the gameplan under new coach Brad Scott. Perhaps not surprisingly, the gameplan is based around attack at the ball and the man with the ball, just as it was under Leigh Matthews at Brisbane where Scott learned his trade.

I am projecting both Edwards and Jones to play in round 1 but I expect one of those to make way for Petrie in round 3 - probably Jones. Grima is still under an injury cloud, and his direct replacement would be Tarrant, who is being converted from a forward to a back in the manner of Ryan Schoenmakers. I have picked Bastinac over Urquhart based on NAB form, though I am not prepared to also insert Cunnington as I expect him to graduate through North Ballarat.

Pratt has had a terrible preseason, while Rawlings was mooted to play a bit of a quarterback role, but if so Scott didn’t show his hand in the NAB. Wright was the one who performed that sweeping role to great effect, though opposition coaches quickly worked it out and manned him up. In the Freo match, in particular, it became clear that Wright needs more tuition at VFL level to round out his game so that he doesn’t get exploited like that again.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

Melbourne
FB: Jared Rivers, Matthew Warnock, Cameron Bruce
HB: Joel Macdonald, James Frawley, Aaron Davey
C: Jack Trengove, Brent Moloney, Jack Grimes
HF: Brad Green, Matthew Bate, Colin Sylvia
FF: Austin Wonaeamirri, Brad Miller, Ricky Petterd
Fol: Mark Jamar, James McDonald, Nathan Jones
Int: Stefan Martin, Tom Scully, Jamie Bennell, Addam Maric
In: Scully, Bennell, Wonaeamirri
Out: Liam Jurrah, Cale Morton, Colin Garland
Iffy: Scully, Bennell, Maric, Trengove
Waiting: Garland, James Strauss, Rohan Bail, Lynden Dunn
Injured: Jurrah, Morton, Paul Johnson, Jack Watts, Sam Blease, Luke Tapscott, Max Gawn, John Meesen, Daniel Bell

The switches from Morton to Scully and Jurrah to Wonaeamirri seem obvious enough, but dropping Garland from this team will raise the heckles of the small (but vocal) minority who seems to think he’s at all fantasy-relevant this year. Newsflash: he’s not. The reason I have swapped him for Bennell in this team is the lack of Franklin for the Hawks makes the Demons backline too top-heavy for what is likely to be a smaller Hawthorn attack. Garland is the odd man out among the five tall backs due to his relatively short preseason, plagued by foot troubles. Martin stays in as #2 ruck, rotating back to spell the three tall defenders.

Mystery surrounds the severity of Jurrah’s shoulder dislocation so I’m erring on the side of caution. Wona is hardly a like-for-like, though if Bailey is looking for a third marking tall, Green or Petterd could approximate that role. The other, less likely option is bringing in Dunn as a marking forward in place of Maric, though I suspect the Hawks have a good matchup for his body shape in Gibson.

So yes, I am projecting both Trengove and Scully to make their debuts in round 1. I expect Trengove to play more games and score more points. Plenty of fantasy coaches are with me on that thought, evidently. Given Melbourne’s eternally long injury list, though, who is to say that they won’t both play many more games than planned? With Connors lurking at around the same price, the choices at that bracket pull at the heartstrings.

Hawthorn
FB: Josh Gibson, Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra
HB: Xavier Ellis, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Beau Muston, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF: Michael Osborne, Beau Dowler, Luke Hodge
FF: Garry Moss, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli
Fol: Brent Renouf, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Wayde Skipper, Campbell Brown, Rick Ladson, Jarrod Kayler-Thomson
In: Kayler-Thomson, Skipper, Moss
Out: Simon Taylor, Brad Sewell, Rhan Hooper
Iffy: Muston, Rioli, Burgoyne, Kayler-Thomson
Waiting: Clinton Young, Matt Suckling, Jarryd Morton, Carl Peterson
Injured: Max Bailey, Cameron Stokes, Taylor, Sewell, Brendan Whitecross, Luke Lowden,
Suspended: Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman
Retired: Trent Croad

Three rookie elevation spots for the Hawks with Croad, Bailey and Taylor all making way. Skipper must be elevated to cover for Taylor, Moss is pretty much assured so the last spot is down to either Kayler-Thomson or Peterson. Training watchers are divided on who it should be, depending on your opinion of whether the Hawks need another outside-running left-footer or a mercurial forward/on-baller. In other words, a Young type or a Rioli type. The other option is to consign Whitecross to the LTI list and promote both. Things are that bad down at Waverley… again.

I’m sorry to sound like a broken record on this. Yes, Hawthorn are going into a second consecutive season with multiple senior players carrying niggles into round 1 that have interrupted their preseason. Rioli, Burgoyne, Lewis, Ladson, Renouf, Guerra, Young, Osborne, Dowler… all have been on the injury list at some point this year already. It is a huge concern for fantasy, because the injury curse may consign the Hawks to another underperforming season and drag down its premiums again.

Brisbane
FB: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jed Adcock, Matt Maguire, Josh Drummond
C: Cheynee Stiller, Daniel Rich, Travis Johnstone
HF: Jared Brennan, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
FF: James Polkinghorne, Brendan Fevola, Amon Buchanan
Fol: Mitch Clark, Simon Black, Michael Rischitelli
Int: Matthew Leuenberger, Jack Redden, Tom Collier, Tom Rockliff
In: Rockliff, Redden
Out: James Hawksley, Brent Staker
Iffy: Collier, Rockliff, Maguire, Redden
Waiting: Troy Selwood, Sam Sheldon, Albert Proud, Staker
Injured: Xavier Clarke, Callum Bartlett, Luke Power, Jamie Charman

Hawksley has not shown enough in the NAB despite early hype. Those who expected Staker to waltz into the Lions best 22 only have to have seen his NAB form - or more to the point, not seen it. Or seen him at all. Rockliff, on the other hand, has been a NAB superstar and deserves a spot on form in front of a host of candidates. I have inserted Redden but this spot could easily be taken by Proud or Sheldon.

Power’s preseason has been shrouded in mystery, with a lingering groin problem bringing up predictable rumours of osteitis pubis. There are enough younger legs with enough quality on the list that coach Voss can afford to take it easy with his old premiership teammate.

I expect Maguire to hold down CHB, not necessarily because he’s so scintillatingly good himself, but more to free up other backmen into more productive roles, similar to how Harry Taylor has become so important at Geelong and Zac Dawson at St Kilda. His presence will take the pressure off Patfull, and allow more time for the likes of McGrath, Adcock and Drummond to rebound.

West Coast
FB: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Matt Spangher
HB: Adam Selwood, Mitchell Brown, Shannon Hurn
C: Tom Swift, Daniel Kerr, Brad Ebert
HF: Mark LeCras, Josh J. Kennedy, Sam Butler
FF: Ben McKinley, Quinten Lynch, Mark Nicoski
Fol: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Chris Masten
Int: Nick Naitanui, Andrew Embley, Matt Rosa, Luke Shuey
In: Shuey, Spangher
Out: Bradd Dalziell, Eric MacKenzie
Iffy: Rosa, Butler, McKinley, Shuey
Waiting: Dalziell, Brad Sheppard, Brett Jones, Ashley Hansen

Dalziell has done his dash in the preseason in the eyes of most watchers. The Eagles are the only AFL club to be picking from a full list with no injuries at the moment - interrupted preseasons to Kerr, Priddis and MacKenzie aside - so Dalziell is currently not in the best 22 for West Coast.

With three runners on the bench, I am expecting both ruckmen to deputise back and forward to provide height when KPPs are resting. This does not mean I think Naitanui will become startable as a #2 ruck. I am still of the opinion that NicNat is the ultimate nuffie pick of 2010. If you have him starting in your fantasy team, you are a nuff-nuff. Unless Cox gets injured, in which case all bets are off.

Waters played in the forward pocket in the NAB Cup but reverted back to his normal half-back role in this weekend’s NAB Challenge match, which makes one wonder what his role is going to be in the regular season. It seems like Nicoski is not a bad option to fill the hole as second small forward beside LeCras, so where is a clearly underdone Waters really needed? Given his rustiness, he may be best suited to a pinch-hitting reduced-TOG role in the manner of Stuart Dew in 2008, which by definition would be poor for fantasy. Too many question marks still hang over Waters for me to have any confidence in him as a starter. Given the depth of cheap backs this year I could certainly see him as a #8 back for your bench, if you can stomach the extra cost.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, Kelvin Moore, Will Thursfield
HB: Shane Edwards, Luke McGuane, Daniel Connors
C: Richard Tambling, Trent Cotchin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Ben Cousins, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
FF: Robin Nahas, Graham Polak, Mitch Morton
Fol: Troy Simmonds, Brett Deledio, Shane Tuck
Int: Tyrone Vickery, Matt White, Dean Polo, Mitch Farmer
In: Polak, Farmer, Connors, Thursfield
Out: Angus Graham, Jordan McMahon, Alex Rance, Nathan Foley
Iffy: Thursfield, Farmer, Tuck, White
Waiting: Foley, Jayden Post, Tom Hislop, Adam Thomson
Injured: David Astbury, Benjamin Griffiths

Martin is the most locked-in of any rookie in 2010, and will also be locked into most fantasy teams as well. I have included both Polo and Farmer here - even though they are the sort of back pocket players who would normally fight for one spot with a tall such as Post taking the other bench spot - due to the large number of small forwards that Carlton will roll out in their midget forward line. Beware, thusly, of Farmer’s job security.

Polak will most likely get a senior list spot and a start on the opening Thursday, but I expect him to be very poor for fantasy purposes. I am projecting Foley to be fit for the start of the season but to start at Coburg due to his complete lack of preseason match practice. I expect Hardwick to use Vickery instead of Graham to exploit the lack of pace and flexibility among Carlton’s ruck stocks beyond Kreuzer.

As I said on the Coaches Box this week, it does look like Connors will be the second rebounding halfback alongside Edwards with Tambling moving to the wing, but what did Edwards do last year? Bugger all. Connors is a better player than Edwards, but I would be tempering my expectations, given that it’s Richmond we’re talking about here. Connors’ production will be somewhere between that of Edwards and Bling last year, and my bet is that it’s closer to Edwards than Bling.

Carlton
FB: Bret Thornton, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Jordan Russell, Paul Bower, Heath Scotland
C: Kade Simpson, Brock McLean, Andrew Carrazzo
HF: Andrew Walker, Jarrad Waite, Chris Yarran
FF: Setanta O’hAilpin, Lachie Henderson, Eddie Betts
Fol: Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Richard Hadley
Int: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Ryan Houlihan, Mitch Robinson
In: Waite
Out: Shaun Grigg
Iffy: Waite, Murphy, Joseph, Warnock
Waiting: Shaun Hampson, Grigg, Kane Lucas, Dennis Armfield
Injured: Brad Fisher
Suspended: Chris Judd

Waite got through his first big test of the preseason with about a half of football on the weekend, so he deserves to be put back in the round 1 projected team. The same goes for Murphy though he still may not be quite right in time. I wouldn’t be picking either of them from the start of the season, though, as you just can’t be sure that they will (a) play 22 games given their lack of preseason and (b) score enough early not to go down in value. I like Waite as a second-half pick-up due to his multi-positional eligiblity to stave off donuts, though again you may run into the problem that players usually take two years, not one, to fully regain confidence after an ACL, so his ceiling may be a little low.

I am putting in Warnock over Hampson at this stage more for politics than form, as the Blues have invested a lot of money in the ex-Docker. His place could easily be replaced by Hampson or Sam Jacobs depending on the whim of coach Ratten.

Geelong
FB: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Andrew Mackie
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Josh Hunt
C: James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Ling
HF: Shannon Byrnes, Cameron Mooney, Steve Johnson
FF: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly
Fol: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett jnr
Int: Mark Blake, Travis Varcoe, David Wojcinski, Tom Lonergan
In: J. Hunt, S. Johnson, Podsiadly, Lonergan
Out: Mathew Stokes, Max Rooke, Joel Corey, Ryan Gamble
Iffy: Lonergan, T. Varcoe, Wocjinski, Podsiadly
Waiting: Nathan Djerrkura, Steven Motlop, Mitchell Duncan, Jeremy Laidler
Injured: Mitch W. Brown, Rooke, Corey, Gamble, Marcus Drum, Simon Hogan
Suspended: Stokes (club)

Just quietly, the Cats are going into the season with a rather long injury list. It has gotten to the stage where Duncan might even be a realistic chance for round 1, especially if another small forward goes down. He looked fabulous in round 1 of the NAB, though he would be a longshot to keep his place in the side for any length of time, barring cascading disasters elsewhere on the list.

The Geelong hierarchy have been talking about a three-tall structure up forward all preseason, and they might be forced into using it from the get-go with the lack of Rooke and Gamble. That is where Podsiadly comes in, as the obvious elevation for Brown’s LTI.

Essendon
FB: Henry Slattery, Tayte Pears, Dustin Fletcher
HB: Andrew Welsh, Cale Hooker, Courtenay Dempsey
C: Ricky Dyson, Brent Stanton, Brent Prismall
HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Kyle Reimers
FF: Mark Williams, David Hille, Angus Monfries
Fol: Patrick Ryder, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich
Int: Jason Laycock, Heath Hocking, Bachar Houli, Sam Lonergan
In: Hille, Hooker, Houli
Out: Jay Neagle, Michael Hurley, David Myers
Iffy: Dyson, Houli, Hocking, Lonergan
Waiting: David Zaharakis, Jarrod Atkinson, Darcy Daniher, Kyle Hardingham
Injured: Leroy Jetta, Myers
Suspended: Nathan Lovett-Murray, Mark McVeigh, Hurley (club)

Some of the same old Bombers have the same old problems. Myers with yet another hammy on the weekend. Neagle just not fit. Gumbleton held together with fishing wire. Dempsey looking flashy but then going missing. This team is missing a lot of what you would call best 22 players through injury or suspension, but since when has Essendon ever been able to put its best 22 on the park all at once? Not under Matthew Knights’ watch, sadly. List cloggers like Dyson and Henry Slattery will continue to get games until Knights finds a magic potion… something to stop the rot.

On the bright side, it does look like Hille will be ready to play in round 1, though I suspect through lack of fitness he’s not going to be able to do anything in the ruck and thus will be completely pantsed by Scarlett as a stay-at-home full forward.

First, I’ll list the four teams out of dozens and dozens that had no marks taken off under my marking system, which consists of me giving 10 marks to start with and then subtracting marks for bad player choices or structures that are poorly thought out. In addition, I will include some “hindsight” comments, as some feedback from the previous DT-flavoured article led some to wonder why I was giving 10s to teams with injured and out-of-form players - the reason being that the teams were posted before the injuries and NAB form slumps happened.

Hommus (posted February 8 )

Original review: “I declare this team to be tasty as a lamb kebab. My only quibble is in starting TDL, but the rest of the team is full of tzatziki flavour so I’ll let that go.”

Hindsight: Preseason injuries to Palmer and Dennis-Lane make them uncertain early starters, but the structure is essentially sound. The main reason I gave this 10, despite starting a back and a forward rookie, is that he nailed the mid-pricers that the top-shelf coaches had researched before the NAB started and have since shown their wares to the general public… much to the chagrin of those who put in the research hours.

Brendon Goddard, Simon Goodwin, Corey Enright, Josh Hunt, Levi Greenwood, Rick Ladson, Matt Maguire
Jackson Trengove, Phil Davis

Gary Ablett jnr, Leigh Montagna, Brett Deledio, Rhys Palmer, Dustin Martin, Jack Trengove
Ryan Bastinac, Jake Melksham

Dean Cox, Kurt Tippett
Robert Warnock, Wayde Skipper

Adam Goodes, Ryan O’Keefe, Tarkyn Lockyer, Lance Franklin, Barry Hall, Jack Ziebell, Trent Dennis-Lane
Luke Tapscott, James Podsiadly

saborn (posted February 9)

Original review: “Swan is good enough for a captain. I can’t find a hole in that team, to be honest. Your structure is excellent.”

Hindsight: Vince is now injured, but he’s easily replaced and elsewhere this squad is top notch. Not a lot of surprises but no weaknesses either.

Enright, Luke Hodge, Andrew Carrazzo, Greenwood, Hunt, Tadhg Kennelly, Adam McPhee
Davis, Jake Carlisle

Dane Swan, Bernie Vince, Brent Prismall, Tom Swift, Trengove, Martin
Anthony Morabito, Bastinac

Aaron Sandilands, Matthew Kreuzer
Warnock, Matthew Lobbe

Nick Riewoldt, Pavlich, Franklin, Ziebell, Patrick Dangerfield, Tippett, Robbie Gray
Dennis-Lane, Cameron Hitchcock

Keetah (posted February 11)

Original review: “Okay, you’re starting three rookie mids which is risky, but I think you’ve nailed everything else so you get the gold star.”

Hindsight: Keetah was an early rider on the bandwagon of starting three midfield rookies, which is starting to pick up serious steam now with a host of options bobbing up in the NAB. Knights is replaceable and Dalziell’s form may see a change there too.

Goddard, Enright, Sam Fisher, Hodge, Kennelly, Hunt, Ladson
Brad Sheppard, Maguire

Ablett jnr, Adam Cooney, Bradd Dalziell, Trengove, Martin, Anthony Morabito
Michael Barlow, Bastinac

Sandilands, Darren Jolly
Warnock, Lobbe

N. Riewoldt, Pavlich, Franklin, Chris Knights, Barry Hall, Dangerfield, Ziebell
Davis, Tapscott

Ladsy (posted February 13)

Original review: “Cale Morton is now injured but you didn’t know that at the time you posted this team. Otherwise I can’t find fault with your structure. You would be getting cold feet about Polkinghorne now I suppose.”

Hindsight: His weaknesses - with the benefit of two weeks of form and injury news - are in areas replete with good options. While I think Masten is a bit of a sheep pick, I love Macdonald as a unique.

Goddard, Paul Duffield, Hodge, Joel Macdonald, Hunt, Ladson, Greenwood
Davis, Jeromey Webberley

Ablett jnr, Matthew Boyd, Cale Morton, Chris Masten, Trengove, Martin
Morabito, Bastinac

Sandilands, Kreuzer
Warnock, Lobbe

N. Riewoldt, Pavlich, Franklin, Tippett, Dangerfield, Ziebell, James Polkinghorne
Tapscott, Dennis-Lane

In today’s Dream Team v2 post I detailed a list of common mistakes that submitters were making, which pertain equally to SuperCoach.

Enter your teams in the comments below and I promise to eventually rate all of them (though only once per coach). Please, format them as I have listed above in that 8-line style, and take out the prices so they don’t take up 60 lines.

First, I’ll list the two teams out of dozens and dozens that had no marks taken off under my marking system, which consists of me giving 10 marks to start with and then subtracting marks for bad player choices or structures that are poorly thought out.

Bartel (posted February 6)

Original review: “While I personally wouldn’t have many of your players, I respect your choices and I can’t see anything wrong with your side structurally, except perhaps for a lack of a second 115 captain (though that’s minor).”

Brendon Goddard, Grant Birchall, Lachie Henderson, Tadhg Kennelly, Matthew Broadbent, Simon Buckley, Rick Ladson
Brad Sheppard, Phil Davis

Leigh Montagna, Joel Selwood, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Hodge, Jack Trengrove, Dustin Martin
Luke Shuey, Ryan Bastinac

Matthew Kruezer, Kurt Tippett
Robert Warnock, Matthew Lobbe

Nick Riewoldt, Adam Goodes, Jonathan Brown, Matthew Pavlich, Lance Franklin, Adam McPhee, Patrick Dangerfield
Trent Dennis-Lane, Luke Tapscott

DoctorE (posted February 11)

Original review: “That is a fine looking squad you have there. Stylistically, I personally wouldn’t be taking the chance on two mid-price midfielders like that, and I think there may be scope for you to downgrade one of your premium backs to fund an upgrade or two. If Armitage and Redden do come off, though, you have an outstanding platform for 2010.”

Goddard, Corey Enright, Andrew Carrazzo, Hodge, Marcus Drum, Kennelly, Broadbent
Josh Hunt, Davis

Gary Ablett jnr, J. Selwood, David Armitage, Jarred Redden, Trengove, Martin
Shuey, Bastinac

Darren Jolly, Kreuzer
Warnock, Lobbe

N. Riewoldt, Pavlich, Shaun Higgins, Franklin, Jack Ziebell, Polkinghorne, Dangerfield
Tapscott, Dennis-Lane

There are a number of mistakes that kept cropping up again and again with the submitted teams.

Don’t pick injury-riddled players. I can’t remember the amount of times I had to take marks off for the likes of Scott Gumbleton, Jarrad Waite, Michael Hurley and Beau Waters. Even if they do make it to round 1, it’s a poor decision to buy them anyway, because they don’t have the fitness base over the preseason that their competitors for spots in your team have enjoyed. Think Franklin of last year.

Don’t pick players who are LTI. Xavier Clarke, anyone?

Don’t skimp on your starting rucks. I have heard people hemming and hawing about whether to choose David Hille, Brad Ottens or Nic Naitanui. The answer should be: none of the above! Fantasy coaches have been sucked in by the Troy Simmonds story of 2008. No, I don’t think there is a Simmonds type in this year’s crop. Shell out the clams for two premium rucks and hope to God they don’t fall victim to LTIs.

Don’t pick mid-priced key position players. This is a rule that can be broken sometimes for up-and-coming CHFs such as Tom Hawkins or Josh J. Kennedy, but the likes of Ryan Schoenmakers, Colin Garland, Mitchell Brown, Tyrone Vickery and Lachlan Hansen just don’t have enough upside for their price to make it all the way to premium status.

Don’t pick spuds. I would have thought this would be self-evident, but some teams included the likes of Michael Newton, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey and Nathan Jones. Bleurgh.

Don’t get too enamoured of the new dual-position rule. Yes, it is going to be handy, but not in your starting side in round 1. You should be looking to exploit this rule towards the second half of the season, when the donuts start rolling in. Don’t pick the likes of Goddard or Goodes in the centres, especially if you haven’t got a matching mid-priced dual-position player to swap with them.

Don’t start a rookie anywhere other than the midfield. The only possible exception to this rule would be Maguire in the backs and Rockliff in the forwards - who are rookie-priced without being rookies - but otherwise I can’t see any of this year’s draftees outside the centres being startworthy.

Don’t skimp on your captain choices. I am seeing a lot of coaches who expect the likes of Bryce Gibbs and Joel Selwood to shoulder captaincy duties from round 1. This is a mistake. At least one midfielder from Bartel upwards is mandatory to ensure a 110+ captaincy average.

Enter your teams in the comments below and I promise to eventually rate all of them (though only once per coach). Please, format them as I have listed above in that 8-line style, and take out the prices so they don’t take up 60 lines.

Those of you who are new to FanFooty may not know all of the features we have tucked away in nooks and crannies around the site. The one thing you should know is that the Exteam feature is the most important of these, and is the one that most FanFooty users want to have to enhance their fantasy footy fix, not only on weekends but during the week. And it’s open for business for 2010!

The Exteam feature allows you to enter in the details of your fantasy team from most major and minor competitions, like AFL Dream Team, Supercoach, MyFantasyFooty, Yahoo and a host of others, which gives you easy access to a list of your players for research purposes via FanFooty’s player profiles. Most importantly, it allows you to see a page each weekend with live scoring for your team, including the possibility of seeing live head-to-head scores with anyone who also loads their team into FanFooty.

Loading your AFL Dream Team or Supercoach squad into the Exteam feature is particularly easy, as you can simply enter in the email and password from the real site and FanFooty will instantly load your team into our databases - without saving any of your login details, of course. Once you have created an Exteam you will also be able to see pages for Dream Team and Supercoach player popularity, as well as browse a list of teams whose owners have agreed to be made public by checking an option on the team list page.

There will be additional features for Dream Team and Supercoach leagues which will be added later on.

Similar to the overhyped players post a couple of days ago, I have been looking through the teams in the Fanplanner and see a few names way down popularity charts who I think should be given more consideration by fantasy coaches.

The Unloved Premiums

Paul Duffield, Brad Symes, Kane Cornes, Leigh Montagna, Andrew Embley, Hamish McIntosh and Leon Davis are all almost non-existent in the list of popular players in the Fanplanner. A significant amount of coaches I know choose every player with upside in mind, even rolled gold premiums like most of these blokes are. I can see why those sort of coaches might look askance at these players. Duffield, Tags, H-Mac and Neon Leon have just gone through a big jump in average last year, so the thinking may be that their value the year after such a rise will not be nearly as undersold. I think there is still some upside left, particularly in Duffman. I am surprised at the lack of H-Mac love since he was so good to a lot of coaches last year, and the uncertainty over Dean Cox means that if you’re going with a two-premium strategy for your rucks, McIntosh should be right up there behind Aaron Sandilands as a safe pick.

Symes is an example of the sort of player who has teased us before but has dropped off the radar. Coaches who picked him up last year in the hope that the likes of Andrew McLeod and Tyson Edwards might take a back seat as their bodies age were disappointed to find these evergreen champions had at least one more good year left in them. Most coaches bypassed Shannon Hurn last year for much the same reason, but Hurn finally delivered on the promise he had shown for years with a start-worthy year of 22 full games. I still think Symes has 10 or more points of improvement left in him, and the old codgers might not last out the season.

Kornes and Embley have been reliable warhorses for fantasy coaches for years now, but this seems to be the year that they get the flick, judging by the numbers. Both have gone through role changes at their clubs, and will probably change again this year, with Kane mooted for forward rotations. You can bet that Chad Cornes settling at halfback means that he’ll be waxing a lot of rebound pill with his brother, nonetheless. Embley seems to be a spare parts man but with the advent of Bradd Dalziell to permanently take a wing, Embley may settle into the lucrative half back line, in the manner that Sam Mitchell did last year with sexy results.

The Maligned Mid-Pricers

Bachar Houli, James Hawksley, Cale Morton, David Mackay, Chris Yarran, Ben Warren and Sam Wright are the mid-priced players that I think are underappreciated. Houli has been on the outer at Windy Hill for a while now, but the reports I have heard from the Essendon intra-club match were good and it seems Houli has pulled his head in and has the coach’s confidence again, for the moment. I have liked him as a SuperCoach specialist for a while now, and with the rise of Jobe Watson and Brent Prismall there is room for another inside midfielder at Bomberland who won’t get the tags. Hawksley is mooted for a back pocket role this year at the otherwise top-heavy Lions, and while he may not set any houses on fire he could deliver respectable returns in the mould of Kyle Cheney - though hopefully with better job security.

Morton has gotten lost a bit amongst the draft hype at Melbourne. While he is priced rather highly, his upside is great considering that the Demons will actually be trying to win this year, thus will theoretically get more of the ball. His game is built for Dream Team, with the hallmarks of a highly outside (80% according to the Prospectus) Joel Bowden type appetite for uncontested marks and kicks, with little in the way of defensive assignments to interrupt his DT sluttiness. Mackay is a quiet, unassuming type who nonetheless used his permanent wing spot to slide into the top five in running bounces last year, underlining the outside nature of his game, tending towards the front half. Both Morton and Mackay are going into their third years and while the third year is not as important in AFL as it is in fantasy NFL, the graph of both of these lads is pointing towards them reaching premium status this year, a la Bernie Vince last year.

Yarran is a bit more of a long shot. Someone has to kick goals for Carlton, surely? Most conjecture revolves around the tall timber but Yarran seems to have been forgotten as a marking target. His undoubted quality is tempered by injury susceptibility, of course, but he seems to be getting through his second pre-season just fine. Don’t be surprised if he bobs up in the NAB with some tasty numbers. As for Wright and Warren, these two were the third and fourth mentioned on afl.com.au last month as being part of the flotilla of younger Roos being injected into the midfield, with Jack Ziebell and Levi Greenwood the others. Jay-Z continues to get the most love, but don’t take you eye off the others in the NAB.

The Hazy Rookies

Actually, I can’t fault the way that coaches have gone with rookies on the Fanplanner much, as information on early selections are impossible to come by. David Astbury is barely there but he’s no lock for round 1, though his stocks are rising. Mitch Banner is perhaps a little low, but again he’s got a mountain to climb. Phil Davis is still winning the battle for fantasy popularity over Shaun McKernan and Ricky Henderson but if that contest swings on the Adelaide training track then it will quickly reverse itself in fantasy too. It’s way too early to be locking in rookies anyway at this early stage, as the NAB will throw all the sticks up in the air again.

After many requests for an update on this blog post last year detailing carryover points for the upcoming season, I have decided to pull the finger out and write the code to turn this into a permanent feature. Thus we now have a Tribunal page which will update itself throughout the season with a list of which current AFL players have carryover points and/or loading from previous suspensions.

I will do the same for the Bubble Boy and Rollercoaster features on the blog after round 3, which will save me a lot of naffing around for me in future if nothing else!

I remain open to suggestions for new features like this, which are merely summations of existing data. In particular, I still haven’t seen a good suggestion for a player comparison page. I think I mentioned that in the last housekeeping post. If anyone has any good ideas, don’t hesitate to comment and I’ll probably shoot them down in a ball of flames. No no, I mean I shall be receptive and thankful! Yes, that.

Now that the AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach competitions are open, the popularity of certain players is starting to grate on me. Here’s a look at some of the players who I think don’t merit the attention that fantasy coaches are lavishing on them.

The Band-Aid Brigade

Jarrad Waite, David Hille, Beau Waters, Rhys Palmer, Shaun Burgoyne, Brad Ottens, Clinton Young, Austin Wonaeamirri and Robert Murphy are all on modified programs in the pre-season. I don’t like the thought of any of them in my fantasy team. Palmer has already been ruled out for round 1 by his coach. Burgoyne has been quoted on hawthornfc.com.au talking down his early season prospects. Hille struggled in the intra-club during the week from what I heard, notwithstanding the glowing endorsement given to his performance on essendonfc.com.au.

Even if some of these players do manage to make it to the start of the season, I don’t expect them to come out of the gates running like greyhounds. The smart play, I think, is if you want some of these guys - and there are advantages to having the likes of Waite and Ladson for dual-positioning purposes - you can wait until they gain full fitness and return to posting startable scores.

The Celebrities

Sure, Adam Cooney won the Brownlow Medal. Everyone knows who Alan Didak is after his escapades in and out of Heath Shaw’s car. Sam Mitchell lifted the premiership cup a few years ago. Brett Burton has won a car or two himself from his Birdman leaps. I don’t like how high these four are in the lists of who has been picked in the Fanplanner, however.

Cooney I see as an SC specialist, where he’s #2 most popular for starting midfielders, but he’s also #6 in Dream Team. I can see why, as he’s priced at 90 in DT and 91 in SC, yet after round 9 he came home averaging 100 in DT and SC. Is that supposedly-guaranteed 10 point increase enough to justify him being that popular? My problem with that is that even if he does lift his average back to 100, he’s still not in the top 15 midfielders for average. It’s a safe, solid pick that’s not going to win you any cars. I’d rather search for a Bernie Vince type who is going to rise from 75 to 100, not 90 to 100.

On Didak, my feeling is that he got a bump last year due to trying harder post the suspension, and there’s not a lot of upside there. You can’t argue durability for Dids since he has only managed more than 18 games a season twice in nine years. On Mitchell, his move back into midfield this year will not do good things for his fantasy numbers, as halfback was more lucrative for him in 2009. He has significant downside potential. Finally on Burton, with the rise of Kurt Tippett Burton’s days as a fantasy premium are well and truly gone. There won’t be a Simon Goodwin-style late resurgence of value for the Birdman.

The Bridges Too Far

Daniel Kerr sure is cheap, isn’t he? Paul Medhurst, he won the Anzac Medal a few years ago, what a champ. Sean Rusling, he’s supposed to be the future of Collingwood. There’s a reason these blokes are underpriced. Apart from a historicaly prodigious talent for soft tissue injuries, Kerr has 97.88 points and a 50% loading on his next tribunal offence, so if he so much as sneezes at an opponent he’ll get weeks. I also don’t like talk of Kerr spending time on the forward line as that would further curtail his scoring ability, I think. Medhurst has looked terrible at preseason training, from reports I have read, and Rusling hasn’t fronted for the scratch matches. There are too many question marks over these kinds of players for you to be comfortable starting them. I can possibly see Rusling being used as a bench forward, but if you want a perpetually injured tall who will let you down every time, why not save money and buy Scott Gumbleton?