Note: I am not going to be blogging regularly in 2012, but this issue necessitates a long explanation.

As many of you would know by now, the AFL has decided in its wisdom to welcome the new 18-team competition with a new way of distributing byes. Instead of stringing them throughout the season as they did last year, now they will be concentrated in three weeks, across round 11, 12 and 13. This is a much more NFL way of doing it. Unfortunately, for fantasy purposes this brings up all sorts of problems in how to deliver a solid fantasy experience.

Dr Dream Team let slip the essentials of the new rules today in a tweet. In short, there will be a return to a squad of 30, the positions reverting to 7-6-2-7 with two bench players per position, with trades left at 24 but three trades allowed in round 11, 12 and 13. For a detailed rundown on the new rule changes for season 2012, go to the Dream Team Talk blog and read their analysis, which is excellent as always. Now, let’s get on with the implications.

For those of you who try to avoid donuts like Cyril avoids tacklers, all hope is not yet lost. It is going to be possible to avoid the dreaded donut in 2012, even with this restrictive trade system and six teams missing each week through the bye period. It can be done in as few as six trades, assuming you get lucky with availability and injury of players in your squad.

The first thing to understand is that you should not have to trade in the week before round 11 to avoid a bye donut. This is the mistake that many noobs will make, especially when they realise with a panic that they haven’t structured their teams correctly. By that time, it’s too late.

Structure – that hated new AFL buzzword – is the key to minimising the necessary trades. The structure you need to aim for going into round 11 is as follows:

Backs: two R11 byes, three/four R12 byes, four/three R13 byes
Mids: two R11 byes, three R12 byes, three R13 byes
Rucks: two R11 byes, one R12 bye, one R13 bye
Forwards: two R11 byes, four/three R12 byes, three/four R13 byes

As you can see, for round 11 you will theoretically be able to get away with no trades in the week preceding, and have a full 22 players to run out on the park, albeit with no emergency cover. Remember: every emergency you enjoy in rounds 11 through 13 in 2012 means a donut elsewhere in your team somewhere during the bye period.

Now, here’s where it gets more complicated. To survive in round 12 and 13 with no donuts, you have to set up three of your positions for players with ruck and forward positional designations. One of these must go in the rucks and have a round 11 bye, and the other two in the forwards with a round 12 bye and a round 13 bye respectively. This is required because otherwise in rounds 12 and 13 you have a “wasted” emergency slot, which would mean two donuts in other positions.

Let’s use an example team that I prepared using the Fanplanner.

12 Monkeys Fanplanner squad in the Dream Team competition coached by m0nty. Salary cap left: $23,400.

Brendon Goddard, Heath Shaw, Brett Deledio, Matt Suckling, Greg Broughton, Brian Lake, Matthew Buntine
Billie Smedts, Jordan Lockyer

Dane Swan, Gary Ablett jnr, Sam Mitchell, Marc Murphy, Michael Barlow, Anthony Morabito
Anthony Miles, Dylan Shiel

Ben McEvoy, Drew Petrie
Jonathan Giles, Orren Stephenson

Lance Franklin, Dayne Beams, Nick Riewoldt, Patrick Ryder, Matthew Kreuzer, Israel Folau, Jason Porplyzia
Tommy Walsh, Ahmed Saad

This team has been set up with a bye structure of 2/4/3 – 2/3/3 – 2/1/1 – 2/3/4 = 8/11/11 (in the format of R11/R12/R13). Note that Petrie is the R11 R/F in the rucks, while Ryder is the R12 R/F and Kreuzer is the R13 R/F in the forwards. So, in round 11, with all eight bench players having R11 byes and no trades required (cross fingers), we have the following team and bench players.

Brendon Goddard, Heath Shaw, Brett Deledio, Matt Suckling, Greg Broughton, Billie Smedts, Jordan Lockyer
Brian Lake, Matthew Buntine

Dane Swan, Gary Ablett jnr, Sam Mitchell, Marc Murphy, Michael Barlow, Anthony Morabito
Anthony Miles, Dylan Shiel

Ben McEvoy, Orren Stephenson
Jonathan Giles, Drew Petrie

Lance Franklin, Dayne Beams, Nick Riewoldt, Patrick Ryder, Matthew Kreuzer, Tommy Walsh, Ahmed Saad
Israel Folau, Jason Porplyzia

All well and good. But what about R12? We have four backs with R12 byes, three midfielders, one ruck and three forwards. Ah, but one of those forwards with a bye is Ryder, so he can be covered by Petrie. The three available trades can be used to cover two of the four backs and one of the three mids, by trading in players with R11 byes. Our R12 team would look a little something like this:

Trades: Smedts => Sierakowski, Lockyer => Adcock, Morabito => Rockliff.

Brendon Goddard, Brett Deledio, Matt Suckling, Brian Lake, Matthew Buntine, Jed Adcock, Will Sierakowski
Heath Shaw, Greg Broughton

Gary Ablett jnr, Sam Mitchell, Marc Murphy, Tom Rockliff, Anthony Miles, Dylan Shiel
Dane Swan, Michael Barlow

Ben McEvoy, Jonathan Giles
Patrick Ryder, Orren Stephenson

Lance Franklin, Nick Riewoldt, Drew Petrie, Matthew Kreuzer, Israel Folau, Jason Porplyzia, Ahmed Saad
Dayne Beams, Tommy Walsh

I’m going with a rather unlikely best case scenario that you can make two upgrades versus one downgrade, but you get the idea. Now we come to R13. We have three backs with R13 byes, three mids, one ruck and four forwards. Again, one of those forwards is Kreuzer with R/F eligibility, so we can cover him with Petrie. Thus we have a R13 that goes like this:

Trades: Suckling => Grimes, Mitchell => Pendlebury, Saad => Dell’Olio.

Heath Shaw, Greg Broughton, Jack Grimes, Brian Lake, Matthew Buntine, Jed Adcock, Will Sierakowski
Brendon Goddard, Brett Deledio

Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Michael Barlow, Tom Rockliff, Anthony Miles, Dylan Shiel
Gary Ablett jnr, Marc Murphy

Orren Stephenson, Jonathan Giles
Matthew Kreuzer, Ben McEvoy

Dayne Beams, Drew Petrie, Patrick Ryder, Israel Folau, Jason Porplyzia, Tommy Walsh, Cory Dell’Olio
Lance Franklin, Nick Riewoldt

Thus it can be shown that it is theoretically possible to get away with as little as six trades to avoid a donut, and maybe half or more of those can be legitimate team-building trades as opposed to “wasted” sideways trades.

As to whether it is worth it to structure your side so harshly just to avoid donuts, that’s a whole other question. Best left to the comments, actually. So, will you be following this strategy, or do you not care so much about donuts? Do you think you can get a better overall ranking by bypassing the need to have three R/F players and eating the donuts? Is the winner of DT/SC going to follow this technique or not? This will be a hot button issue in the fantasy offseason, so let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Collingwood
FB: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Nick Maxwell
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury
FF: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Alan Didak
Int: (sub to be chosen) Leon Davis, Ben Johnson, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair

In: Davis, Maxwell
Out: Simon Buckley, Brent Macaffer

Carlton
FB: Jeremy Laidler, Michael Jamison, Matthew Watson
HB: Nick Duigan, Bret Thornton, Jordan Russell
C: Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs, Heath Scotland
HF: Marc Murphy, Jarrad Waite, Chris Yarran
FF: Eddie Betts, Shaun Hampson, Jeff Garlett
Fol: Robert Warnock, Andrew Walker, Chris Judd
Int: (sub to be chosen) Andrew Carrazzo, Mitch Robinson, Andrew Collins, Ed Curnow

In: Collins, Jamison
Out: Dennis Armfield, Simon White

Western Bulldogs
FB: Brennan Stack, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Liam Picken, Tom Williams, Robert Murphy
C: Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Justin Sherman
HF: Josh Hill, Barry Hall, Shaun Higgins
FF: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jordan Roughead, Jarrad Grant
Fol: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
Int: (sub to be chosen) Lindsay Gilbee, Callan Ward, Lukas Markovic, Tom Liberatore

In: Lake, Gilbee
Out: Nathan Djerrkura, Liam Jones

Gold Coast
FB: Michael Coad, Nathan Bock, Campbell Brown
HB: Sebastian Tape, Karmichael Hunt, Nathan Krakouer
C: Jarrod Harbrow, Daniel Harris, Michael Rischitelli
HF: Harley Bennell, Charlie Dixon, Danny Stanley
FF: Jared Brennan, Daniel Gorringe, Brandon Matera
Fol: Zachary Smith, Gary Ablett jnr, David Swallow
Int: (sub to be chosen) Maverick Weller, Alik Magin, Trent McKenzie, Dion Prestia

In: Coad, Weller, Gorringe
Out: Josh Fraser, Marc Lock, Joshua Toy

Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Richard Tambling, Phil Davis, Brad Symes
C: Nathan Van Berlo, Andy Otten, Brodie Smith
HF: Chris Knights, Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield
FF: Ricky Henderson, Kurt Tippett, Richard Douglas
Fol: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly
Int: (sub to be chosen) Bernie Vince, Brodie Martin, Shaun McKernan, Matthew Jaensch

In: Symes, Tippett, Martin, Jaensch
Out: Michael Doughty, Jason Porplyzia, David Mackay, Rory Sloane

Fremantle
FB: Ryan Crowley, Antoni Grover, Michael Johnson
HB: Greg Broughton, Luke McPharlin, Paul Duffield
C: Nathan Fyfe, Matthew de Boer, David Mundy
HF: Kepler Bradley, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill
FF: Hayden Ballantyne, Chris Mayne, Jayden Pitt
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Adam McPhee, Nick Lower
Int: (sub to be chosen) Rhys Palmer, Nick Suban, Michael Walters, Dylan Roberton

In: Pitt
Out: Jay Van Berlo

Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Reece Conca
HB: Brett Deledio, Daniel Connors, Jake Batchelor
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Mitch Morton, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
FF: Bradley Helbig, Jack Riewoldt, Bachar Houli
Fol: Angus Graham, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley
Int: (sub to be chosen) Matt White, Jake King, Robin Nahas, Dylan Grimes

In: Grimes
Out: Luke McGuane

Hawthorn
FB: Rick Ladson, Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Cameron Bruce
C: Chance Bateman, Sam Mitchell, Liam Shiels
HF: Clinton Young, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
FF: Michael Osborne, Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis
Fol: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
Int: (sub to be chosen) Xavier Ellis, Shane Savage, Matt Suckling, David Hale

In: Ellis
Out: Cyril Rioli

West Coast
FB: Mitchell Brown, Darren Glass, Shannon Hurn
HB: Sam Butler, Eric MacKenzie, Scott Selwood
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley
HF: Brad Ebert, Josh J. Kennedy, Luke Shuey
FF: Mark Nicoski, Quinten Lynch, Jack Darling
Fol: Dean Cox, Adam Selwood, Daniel Kerr
Int: (sub to be chosen) Will Schofield, Nic Naitanui, Patrick McGinnity, Andrew Gaff

In: Butler, MacKenzie
Out: Beau Waters, Brad Sheppard

Sydney
FB: Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
HB: Rhyce Shaw, Heath Grundy, Alex Johnson
C: Ben McGlynn, Kieren Jack, Nick Smith
HF: Jude Bolton, Samuel Reid, Adam Goodes
FF: Ryan O’Keefe, Jesse White, Daniel Hannebery
Fol: Shane Mumford, Josh P. Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
Int: (sub to be chosen) Craig Bird, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta, Andrejs Everitt

In: Johnson
Out: Brett Meredith

Melbourne
FB: Luke Tapscott, James Frawley, Clint Bartram
HB: Jared Rivers, Colin Garland, Jamie Bennell
C: Colin Sylvia, Jack Grimes, Rohan Bail
HF: Austin Wonaeamirri, Stefan Martin, Jack Trengove
FF: Brad Green, Liam Jurrah, Jordan Gysberts
Fol: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Aaron Davey
Int: (from) Lynden Dunn, Nathan Jones, Matthew Warnock, Ricky Petterd
Cale Morton, Jack Watts, James Strauss

In: Warnock, Morton, Wonaeamirri, Strauss, Gysberts
Out: Addam Maric, Neville Jetta

Brisbane
FB: Jed Adcock, Daniel Merrett, Cheynee Stiller
HB: Pearce Hanley, Joel Patfull, Ashley McGrath
C: Tom Rockliff, Simon Black, Jack Redden
HF: Luke Power, Ryan Lester, Jesse O’Brien
FF: James Polkinghorne, Mitchell Clark, Todd Banfield
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Andrew Raines, Daniel Rich
Int: (from) Tom Collier, Aaron Cornelius, Amon Buchanan, Claye Beams
Broc McCauley, Jared Polec, Rohan Bewick

In: Collier, Cornelius, Polec
Out:

Geelong
FB: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Taylor Hunt
C: Steve Johnson, Cameron Ling, James Kelly
HF: Travis Varcoe, Cameron Mooney, Mathew Stokes
FF: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Jimmy Bartel
Fol: Brad Ottens, Joel Corey, Joel Selwood
Int: (from) James Podsiadly, Mitchell Duncan, Daniel Menzel, Allen Christensen
Tom Gillies, Trent West, Josh Cowan

In: Mooney, Scarlett, West, Selwood, Gillies, Cowan
Out: Andrew Mackie, David Wojcinski, Cameron Guthrie

Port Adelaide
FB: Tom Logan, Alipate Carlile, Jackson Trengove
HB: Hamish Hartlett, Troy Chaplin, Paul Stewart
C: Travis Boak, Matt Thomas, Kane Cornes
HF: Matthew Broadbent, Chad Cornes, Robbie Gray
FF: Jarrad Irons, Justin Westhoff, Daniel Motlop
Fol: Dean Brogan, Danyle Pearce, David Rodan
Int: (from) Jason Davenport, Mitchell Banner, Cameron O’Shea, Jasper Pittard
Steven Salopek, Daniel Stewart, Jacob Surjan

In: D. Motlop, Surjan, Salopek, Hartlett, Banner
Out: Domenic Cassisi, Cameron Hitchcock

St Kilda
FB: Farren Ray, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Sam Gilbert, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt
C: Jason Gram, Brendon Goddard, Leigh Montagna
HF: Jack Steven, Nick Riewoldt, Brett Peake
FF: Nick Dal Santo, Daniel Archer, Stephen Milne
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Sean Dempster, David Armitage
Int: (from) Justin Koschitzke, Clinton Jones, Adam Schneider, Rhys Stanley
Alistair Smith, Nick Winmar, Ryan Gamble

In: Schneider, Koschitzke, Steven, Smith, Stanley, Winmar
Out: Jason Blake, Lenny Hayes, Steven Baker

Essendon
FB: Kyle Hardingham, Dustin Fletcher, Courtenay Dempsey
HB: Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker, Heath Hocking
C: Jason Winderlich, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton
HF: Jake Melksham, Patrick Ryder, Leroy Jetta
FF: Stewart Crameri, Michael Hurley, David Zaharakis
Fol: Tom Bellchambers, Ben Howlett, Mark McVeigh
Int: (from) Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Angus Monfries, Alwyn Davey
Scott Gumbleton, Brent Prismall, Travis Colyer

In: Monfries, Prismall, Gumbleton, Colyer
Out: David Myers

St Kilda
FB: Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Sam Gilbert, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Jason Gram, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
HF: David Armitage, Nick Riewoldt, Brett Peake
FF: Nick Dal Santo, Ryan Gamble, Stephen Milne
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Farren Ray, Clinton Jones
Int: (sub to be named) Jason Blake, James Gwilt, Sean Dempster, Daniel Archer

In: Archer
Out: Andrew McQualter

Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, Daniel Connors, Reece Conca
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Mitch Morton, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
FF: Matt White, Jack Riewoldt, Bachar Houli
Fol: Angus Graham, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley
Int: (sub to be named) Jake King, Jake Batchelor, Robin Nahas, Bradley Helbig

In: King
Out: Alex Rance

North Melbourne
FB: Brady Rawlings, Nathan Grima, Scott D. Thompson
HB: Michael Firrito, Robbie Tarrant, Cameron Richardson
C: Leigh Adams, Liam Anthony, Brent Harvey
HF: Daniel Wells, Lachlan Hansen, Scott McMahon
FF: Sam Wright, Drew Petrie, Lindsay Thomas
Fol: Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Cruize Garlett
Int: (sub to be named) Aaron Edwards, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Shaun Atley

In: Petrie, Goldstein, Grima
Out: Ben McKinley, Ben Warren, Cameron Pedersen

Collingwood
FB: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury
FF: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Alan Didak
Int: (sub to be named) Ben Johnson, Brent Macaffer, Jarryd Blair, Simon Buckley

No change

Port Adelaide
FB: Tom Logan, Alipate Carlile, Jackson Trengove
HB: Jasper Pittard, Troy Chaplin, Paul Stewart
C: Danyle Pearce, Domenic Cassisi, Cameron O’Shea
HF: Daniel Stewart, Justin Westhoff, Kane Cornes
FF: Jarrad Irons, Chad Cornes, Robbie Gray
Fol: Dean Brogan, Travis Boak, Matt Thomas
Int: (sub to be named) Steven Salopek, David Rodan, Matthew Broadbent, Cameron Hitchcock

In: C. Cornes
Out: Jay Schulz

West Coast
FB: Will Schofield, Darren Glass, Shannon Hurn
HB: Beau Waters, Mitchell Brown, Scott Selwood
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley
HF: Brad Ebert, Josh J. Kennedy, Luke Shuey
FF: Mark Nicoski, Quinten Lynch, Jack Darling
Fol: Dean Cox, Adam Selwood, Daniel Kerr
Int: (sub to be named) Nic Naitanui, Patrick McGinnity, Brad Sheppard, Andrew Gaff

In: Kerr, McGinnity, Naitanui
Out: Mark LeCras, Chris Masten, Ashton Hams

Gold Coast
FB: Sebastian Tape, Nathan Bock, Campbell Brown
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Karmichael Hunt, Nathan Krakouer
C: Trent McKenzie, Daniel Harris, Michael Rischitelli
HF: Danny Stanley, Charlie Dixon, Alik Magin
FF: Jared Brennan, Zac Smith, Brandon Matera
Fol: Josh Fraser, David Swallow, Gary Ablett jnr
Int: (sub to be named) Marc Lock, Joshua Toy, Harley Bennell, Dion Prestia

Carlton
FB: Jordan Russell, Bret Thornton, Matthew Watson
HB: Nick Duigan, Simon White, Jeremy Laidler
C: Kade Simpson, Chris Judd, Heath Scotland
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jarrad Waite, Chris Yarran
FF: Eddie Betts, Shaun Hampson, Andrew Walker
Fol: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs
Int: (sub to be named) Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield, Mitch Robinson, Edward Curnow

In: Watson
Out: Kane Lucas

Fremantle
FB: Greg Broughton, Antoni Grover, Michael Johnson
HB: Rhys Palmer, Luke McPharlin, Paul Duffield
C: Nathan Fyfe, Nick Lower, David Mundy
HF: Kepler Bradley, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill
FF: Hayden Ballantyne, Chris Mayne, Jay Van Berlo
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Adam McPhee, Nick Suban
Int: (sub to be named) Ryan Crowley, Michael Walters, Matthew de Boer, Dylan Roberton

In: de Boer
Out: Jayden Pitt

Geelong
FB: Andrew Mackie, Tom Lonergan, Josh Hunt
HB: Joel Corey, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright
C: Joel Selwood, Cameron Ling, David Wojcinski
HF: Travis Varcoe, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman
FF: Mathew Stokes, James Podsiadly, Steve Johnson
Fol: Brad Ottens, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly
Int: (sub to be named) Darren Milburn, Tom Hawkins, Taylor Hunt, Mitchell Duncan

In: Ling, Chapman, Podsiadly
Out: Matthew Scarlett, Daniel Menzel, Cameron Guthrie

Western Bulldogs
FB: Brennan Stack, Lukas Markovic, Dale Morris
HB: Robert Murphy, Tom Williams, Liam Picken
C: Justin Sherman, Matthew Boyd, Daniel Cross
HF: Shaun Higgins, Liam Jones, Josh Hill
FF: Jarrad Grant, Barry Hall, Daniel Giansiracusa
Fol: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
Int: (from) Will Minson, Callan Ward, Jordan Roughead, Brodie Moles
Nathan Djerrkura, Mitch Wallis, Tom Liberatore

In: Minson, Moles, Roughead, Wallis
Out: Easton Wood

Brisbane
FB: Jed Adcock, Daniel Merrett, Pearce Hanley
HB: Cheynee Stiller, Matt Maguire, Ashley McGrath
C: Jack Redden, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff
HF: Todd Banfield, Mitchell Clark, Rohan Bewick
FF: Ryan Lester, Joel Patfull, James Polkinghorne
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Andrew Raines, Daniel Rich
Int: (from) Luke Power, Tom Collier, Amon Buchanan, Jesse O’Brien
Claye Beams, Broc McCauley, Jared Polec

In: Power, Maguire, Collier, McCauley, Polec
Out: Brent Staker, Jonathan Brown

Sydney
FB: Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
HB: Rhyce Shaw, Heath Grundy, Andrejs Everitt
C: Lewis Jetta, Kieren Jack, Nick Smith
HF: Jude Bolton, Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn
FF: Ryan O’Keefe, Samuel Reid, Daniel Hannebery
Fol: Shane Mumford, Josh P. Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
Int: (from) Jesse White, Brett Meredith, Craig Bird, Mike Pyke
Gary Rohan, Byron Sumner, Luke Parker

In: Meredith, Bird, Pyke, Parker
Out: Mark Seaby

Essendon
FB: Cale Hooker, Dustin Fletcher, Kyle Hardingham
HB: Courtenay Dempsey, David Myers, Mark McVeigh
C: Jake Melksham, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich
HF: Leroy Jetta, Michael Hurley, Brent Stanton
FF: Stewart Crameri, Patrick Ryder, David Zaharakis
Fol: David Hille, Heath Hocking, Dyson Heppell
Int: (from) Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Alwyn Davey, Kyle Reimers
Tom Bellchambers, Brent Prismall, Ben Howlett

In: Prismall, Davey, Reimers, Bellchambers
Out: Angus Monfries

Hawthorn
FB: Rick Ladson, Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Cameron Bruce
C: Chance Bateman, Sam Mitchell, Shane Savage
HF: Clinton Young, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
FF: David Hale, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli
Fol: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
Int: (from) Xavier Ellis, Brent Guerra, Jordan Lewis, Michael Osborne
Brendan Whitecross, Liam Shiels, Matt Suckling

In: Guerra, Hodge, Ellis
Out:

Melbourne
FB: Jared Rivers, James Frawley, Clint Bartram
HB: Luke Tapscott, Colin Garland, Jack Grimes
C: Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia, Jamie Bennell
HF: Liam Jurrah, Lynden Dunn, Rohan Bail
FF: Jack Watts, Brad Green, Aaron Davey
Fol: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones
Int: (from) Matthew Warnock, Ricky Petterd, Addam Maric, Stefan Martin
Jake Spencer, Neville Jetta, Joel Macdonald

In: Warnock, Frawley, Spencer
Out:

Carlton
FB: Chris Yarran, Bret Thornton, Nicholas Duigan
HB: Jordan Russell, Simon White, Kane Lucas
C: Heath Scotland, Bryce Gibbs, Jeremy Laidler
HF: Kade Simpson, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Walker
FF: Jeff Garlett, Shaun Hampson, Eddie Betts
Fol: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Chris Judd
Int (sub to be named): Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield, Mitch Robinson, Edward Curnow

Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, David Astbury, Reece Conca
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Mitch Morton, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg
FF: Matt White, Jack Riewoldt, Bradley Helbig
Fol: Angus Graham, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley
Int (sub to be named): Bachar Houli, Jake Batchelor, Robin Nahas, Daniel Connors

Geelong
FB: Corey Enright, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan
C: James Kelly, Mitchell Duncan, Joel Corey
HF: Travis Varcoe, Cameron Mooney, Mathew Stokes
FF: Daniel Menzel, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson
Fol: Brad Ottens, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood
Int (sub to be named): Darren Milburn, David Wojcinski, Taylor Hunt, Cameron Guthrie

St Kilda
FB: Jason Blake, Zac Dawson, Steven Baker
HB: Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sam Gilbert
C: Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo
HF: Stephen Milne, Nick Riewoldt, Andrew McQualter
FF: David Armitage, Ryan Gamble, Raphael Clarke
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Jason Gram, Clinton Jones
Int (sub to be named): James Gwilt, Sean Dempster, Farren Ray, Brett Peake

Collingwood
FB: Heath Shaw, Chris Tarrant, Alan Toovey
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Andrew Krakouer, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas
HF: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Scott Pendlebury
FF: Steele Sidebottom, Leigh Brown, Travis Cloke
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Alan Didak
Int (sub to be named): Simon Buckley, Jarryd Blair, Ben Johnson, Leon Davis

Port Adelaide
FB: Tom Logan, Alipate Carlile, Jackson Trengove
HB: Steven Salopek, Troy Chaplin, Paul Stewart
C: Danyle Pearce, Domenic Cassisi, Matthew Broadbent
HF: Matt Thomas, Justin Westhoff, Kane Cornes
FF: Cameron Hitchcock, Jay Schulz, Robbie Gray
Fol: Dean Brogan, Travis Boak, David Rodan
Int (sub to be named): Jarrad Irons, Jasper Pittard, Daniel Stewart, Cameron O’Shea

Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Nathan Van Berlo, Phil Davis, Michael Doughty
C: Richard Tambling, Rory Sloane, David Mackay
HF: Chris Knights, Taylor Walker, Richard Douglas
FF: Jason Porplyzia, Shaun McKernan, Bernie Vince
Fol: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly
Int (sub to be named): Andy Otten, Patrick Dangerfield, Brodie Smith, Ricky Henderson

Hawthorn
FB: Rick Ladson, Stephen Gilham, Matt Suckling
HB: Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C: Clinton Young, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Shaun Burgoyne, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli
FF: Michael Osborne, Jarryd Roughead, Cameron Bruce
Fol: Brent Renouf, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis
Int (sub to be named): David Hale, Liam Shiels, Shane Savage, Brendan Whitecross

Brisbane
FB: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Pearce Hanley
HB: Jed Adcock, Joel Patfull, Cheynee Stiller
C: Jack Redden, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff
HF: Luke Power, Mitchell Clark, Jesse O’Brien
FF: Brent Staker, Jonathan Brown, Todd Banfield
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Daniel Rich, Andrew Raines
Int (sub to be named): James Polkinghorne, Ryan Lester, Amon Buchanan, Rohan Bewick

Fremantle
FB: Greg Broughton, Antoni Grover, Jay Van Berlo
HB: Ryan Crowley, Luke McPharlin, Paul Duffield
C: Nick Lower, David Mundy, Nathan Fyfe
HF: Kepler Bradley, Matthew Pavlich, Michael Johnson
FF: Hayden Ballantyne, Chris Mayne, Stephen Hill
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Adam McPhee, Nick Suban
Int (sub to be named): Rhys Palmer, Jayden Pitt, Dylan Roberton, Michael Walters

Essendon
FB: Kyle Hardingham, Cale Hooker, Dustin Fletcher
HB: Dyson Heppell, David Myers, Courtenay Dempsey
C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Jake Melksham
HF: Angus Monfries, Michael Hurley, Jason Winderlich
FF: Stewart Crameri, Patrick Ryder, Leroy Jetta
Fol: David Hille, Heath Hocking, Mark McVeigh
Int (from): (from) David Zaharakis, Ben Howlett, Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Brent Prismall, Travis Colyer, Tom Bellchambers

Western Bulldogs
FB: Easton Wood, Lukas Markovic, Dale Morris
HB: Robert Murphy, Tom Williams, Brennan Stack
C: Ryan Griffen, Matthew Boyd, Callan Ward
HF: Shaun Higgins, Liam Jones, Daniel Giansiracusa
FF: Jarrad Grant, Barry Hall, Adam Cooney
Fol: Ben Hudson, Daniel Cross, Tom Liberatore
Int (from): (from) Ed Barlow, Nathan Djerrkura, Josh Hill, Will Minson, Liam Picken, Justin Sherman, Mitch Wallis

Melbourne
FB: Clint Bartram, Jared Rivers, Joel Macdonald
HB: Jack Grimes, Colin Garland, Jamie Bennell
C: Nathan Jones, Brent Moloney, Luke Tapscott
HF: Rohan Bail, Colin Sylvia, Liam Jurrah
FF: Jack Watts, Brad Green, Addam Maric
Fol: Mark Jamar, Lynden Dunn, Aaron Davey
Int (from): Neville Jetta, Stefan Martin, Ricky Petterd, Jake Spencer, James Strauss, Jack Trengove, Matthew Warnock

Sydney
FB: Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
HB: Rhyce Shaw, Heath Grundy, Andrejs Everitt
C: Daniel Hannebery, Kieren Jack, Nick Smith
HF: Lewis Jetta, Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn
FF: Ryan O’Keefe, Samuel Reid, Jesse White
Fol: Shane Mumford, Josh P. Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
Int (from): Jude Bolton, Trent Dennis-Lane, Brett Meredith, Jarred Moore, Gary Rohan, Mark Seaby, Byron Sumner

West Coast
FB: Brad Sheppard, Darren Glass, Shannon Hurn
HB: Beau Waters, Mitchell Brown, Scott Selwood
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley
HF: Brad Ebert, Josh J. Kennedy, Luke Shuey
FF: Jack Darling, Nic Naitanui, Mark LeCras
Fol: Dean Cox, Chris Masten, Adam Selwood
Int (from): Andrew Gaff, Ashton Hams, Quinten Lynch, Patrick McGinnity, Mark Nicoski, Will Schofield, Callum Wilson

North Melbourne
FB: Brady Rawlings, Cameron Pederson, Scott D. Thompson
HB: Michael Firrito, Robbie Tarrant, Cameron Richardson
C: Daniel Wells, Liam Anthony, Brent Harvey
HF: Shaun Atley, Lachlan Hansen, Scott McMahon
FF: Sam Wright, Ben McKinley, Lindsay Thomas
Fol: Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Cruize Garlett
Int (from): Ben Warren, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Leigh Adams, Gavin Urquhart, Aaron Edwards, Daniel Pratt

I am not quite sure why footylover18 is getting me to do this, but it will make for an interesting podcast this evening, due to start at 7:30 Melbourne time.

Brendon Goddard, Bryce Gibbs, Corey Enright, Cameron Bruce, Brett Deledio, Dyson Heppell Nick Lower, Andy Otten
Jeremy Laidler (e), Michael Coad, Danny Stanley

Dane Swan (c), Leigh Montagna (vc), Jimmy Bartel, Nathan Foley, Andrew Krakouer, Rohan Bewick
Michael Hibberd Dyson Heppell, David Swallow, Daniel Harris Reece Conca (e)

Dean Cox, Aaron Sandilands
Rhys Stanley Joel Tippett, Zac Smith

Lance Franklin, Nick Riewoldt, Steve Johnson, Mitch Morton, Luke Tapscott, Jack Darling, Cameron Richardson
Drew Petrie, Brandon Matera, Charlie Dixon

I retain the right to change it before lockout. In particular, this side was made before Luke Hodge opened his big yap this morning and nominated Bruce as an ideal substitute. Be listening at the Coaches Box live chat for tonight’s show.

EDIT: The three changes I made to my side have been made above.

I am in the middle of preparing my Dream Team for tomorrow’s Coaches Box episode with Footylover18, where I reveal my team and he shoots it down in a hail of gunfire. It’s what he does. Anyway, I looked up in the middle of working my plan team (can’t rely on the official site, it was down the other day and people couldn’t update their teams! oh noes!), and realised that in addition to the suspended Drew Petrie, I was working with nine Gold Coast Suns in my starting squad of 33.

Now, I realise that I have been going harder with Suns in my plan team than most people this preseason, judging from conversations in both public and private forums. Even I can see that starting round 1 with a single playing emergency may be taking the Vitamin D policy a little too far, though. I still think a strong case can be made to stash three Suns on your bench in at least one of the three positions with three bench players. With every Gold Coast rookie, though, you have to keep in mind what I am going to call the Suns Projection Factor (SPF): the percentage likelihood that these proto-stars are going to play every game from rounds 2 through 8 with enough scores to qualify as a legitimate cash cow.

This preview article on the GC web site recently, without a byline but presumably written by some AFL apparatchik, covers some of the issues that fantasy coaches are canvassing, but nailing the Suns rookies is going to be a big part of getting close to the cars this year so it’s time to drill down through the photosphere.

Backs

Joshua Toy (SPF 70) has been completely underwhelming in the preseason with scores of 17 and 37 in the two half games in week 1, followed by 37 and 39 in weeks 3 and 4. Nevertheless, the AFL article had him pencilled in a back pocket, via the expedient method of moving Jarrod Harbrow to a wing. I’m not sure that’s the structure they will go with during the season, since the reason they recruited defender so heavily at the top end of their list was to have a strong backline. Nevertheless, fantasy coaches seem to be placing their faith in reports rather than numbers where Toy is concerned.

If you accept Toy’s anointment in the 21, Michael Coad (SPF 80), Jack Hutchins (SPF 40) and Sebastian Tape (SPF 30) seem to be fighting for one spot at most. It’s hard to go past Coad with his size and experience. I suspect that we will see a lot of Hutchins and Tape, but more towards the second half of the year – thus Coad is someone you would not be locking in as a bench keeper.

Then there’s Danny Stanley (SPF 90), who was inexplicably left out of the AFL site’s 22. It is true that Luke Russell (SPF 30) played early in the NAB in a small forward role and didn’t look out of place, even though he is nominally a midfielder, but Stanley’s performances in the preseason surely merit him a red guernsey in Round 2.

All in all, if there is a position you can afford to take three Suns in, I think the backs are it.

Midfield

The late news of injuries to Daniel Harris (SPF 95) and Sam Iles (SPF 50) puts the spanner in the works here. The AFL site has Iles as a sub, which is hard to argue with given his interrupted preseason. With so little coming out of the Suns camp and not enough action on fan sites – similar to the Lions in respect of it being terribly hard to figure out what is going on at some stages, showing the lack of a gossiping football community in Queensland relative to other states – we don’t know what’s going on with Harris’ back, but in the absence of any concrete bad news I think the upside is great enough to hold the line.

One thing I have been surprised about is the lack of love by fantasy coaches for David Swallow (SPF 100). What’s not to like about the number 1 draft picks in recent years? Apart from Jack Watts, who gave us plenty of warning not to pick him a couple of years ago, every #1 pick has been a solid fantasy option even with the price premium. As for Harley Bennell (SPF 60), he is obviously a quality kid but might struggle to keep up with the pace and physical demands of the midfield in senior footy, being a smaller body type without much in the way of blockers around him.

It’s obviously harder to make cases for Marc Lock (SPF 30), Hayden Jolly (SPF 10), Maverick Weller (SPF 15), Trent McKenzie (SPF 20) and Josh Caddy (SPF 20) in the centres. Some of you out there are believers, but if you throw Iles with the others in the big pile of Suns whom we don’t really know enough about in terms of job security, it’s easy to limit your Sun exposure to two at most in the midfield.

Ruck

While every man and his robo-dog are on Zac Smith (SPF 40) even with his preseason injury concerns, I think there’s a solid case to make for including no Suns in the rucks. I have this funny feeling that Smith is going to have a fairly even game share with Daniel Gorringe (SPF 5) and Tom Nicholls (SPF 10), which will limit the ability of any of them to earn cash cow money or provide bye/injury cover at crucial times.

Forwards

Obviously Brandon Matera (SPF 95) is in most sides, and plenty are also pencilling in Charlie Dixon (SPF 60) for JS reasons as a Scott Gumbleton type, especially in SC. Dion Prestia (SPF 50) is another one of those ones in the too-iffy basket for me, but again there are adherents out there. I like Liam Patrick (SPF 50) but he’s a player who will go missing for entire quarters, especially when the Gold Coast are getting flogged, as they will a lot this year. Sam Day‘s (SPF 30) injury concerns have been a concern, but with other options going down in the forward benches he’s starting to look good in comparison to what’s left.

After all of that, I’m still left with somewhere between six and nine Suns. What about your side, how many are you considering and what’s your upper limit? Do you disagree with my SPF ratings on any of the players mentioned above?

A reminder on the structure of these posts: they are intended as a guide to the players who are in consideration for the first game of the season for each team. Please note that the “iffy” and “waiting” lists are always four names long – thus some players are named who you would think are locks in the 21 just to fill out the numbers – and they are not listed in order of likelihood. Also, the “injured” list sometimes includes players who are not still injured, technically, but will not be considered for selection because they have not yet recovered sufficient fitness in rehab from a previous injury.

Melbourne
FB: Clint Bartram, Matthew Warnock, Colin Garland
HB: Jack Grimes, Jared Rivers, Luke Tapscott
C: Aaron Davey, Brent Moloney, Tom Scully
HF: Brad Green, Jack Watts, Ricky Petterd
FF: Lynden Dunn, Liam Jurrah, Addam Maric
Fol: Mark Jamar, Jack Trengove, Colin Sylvia
Int: Stefan Martin, Nathan Jones, Matthew Bate
Sub: Jamie Bennell

Iffy: Bartram, Jones, Bate, Bennell
Waiting: Joel Macdonald, Rohan Bail, Neville Jetta, James Strauss
Injured: James Frawley, Cale Morton, Jordie McKenzie, Austin Wonaeamirri, Robert Campbell, Troy Davis, Jack Fitzpatrick, Tom McNamara, Michael Newton

The injury list looks massive, but it should clear up by round 3 or thereabouts. Bail should be in this side on exposed form alone, but it’s hard to fit him into that midfield.

Tapscott is going to be tried at halfback, apparently. The Demons didn’t seem to want to kick it to James Strauss in the NAB when he sagged off for cheap rebound link work, so we’ll have to wait and see whether Tapscott can have any more luck attracting the attention of his teammates in a backline where Grimes steals all the oxygen.

Jones and Bate to me have drifted well towards the floor of this 21, and should have their places attacked by the kids. If Melbourne is going to challenge for the eight this year, either these two are going to have to lift their game or Dean Bailey will have to find someone who does.

Bennell seems the default subs pick, though I could see Martin reverting back there when Frawley returns, swapping with Jake Spencer.

Sydney
FB: Nick Smith, Ted Richards, Andrejs Everitt
HB: Martin Mattner, Heath Grundy, Rhyce Shaw
C: Daniel Hannebery, Jarrad McVeigh, Lewis Jetta
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn
FF: Trent Dennis-Lane, Jesse White, Jarred Moore
Fol: Shane Mumford, Josh P. Kennedy, Kieren Jack
Int: Mark Seaby, Gary Rohan, Jude Bolton
Sub: Byron Sumner

Iffy: Smith, Everitt, Dennis-Lane, Sumner
Waiting: Craig Bird, Brett Meredith, Paul Bevan, Mike Pyke
Injured: Craig Bolton, Daniel Bradshaw, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Tadhg Kennelly, Nick Malceski, Campbell Heath

Most of this side is locked in, but there are a few interesting little positional battles. Smith versus Bevan, Seaby versus Pyke and White versus Lewis Johnston will result in only one spot each, but I am projecting Rohan versus Sumner for the vacant HBF will be shared from the subs bench.

TDL’s spot may be under threat from Bird or Meredith for structural reasons, if new coach Longmuir thinks the Swans don’t need another Michael O’Loughlin type against Melbourne with their strong spoiling backline.

West Coast
FB: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Patrick McGinnity
HB: Brad Sheppard, Eric MacKenzie, Shannon Hurn
C: Andrew Embley, Matt Priddis, Matt Rosa
HF: Mark Nicoski, Josh J. Kennedy, Andrew Strijk
FF: Jack Darling, Callum Wilson, Mark LeCras
Fol: Dean Cox, Brad Ebert, Chris Masten
Int: Quinten Lynch, Scott Selwood, Will Schofield
Sub: Andrew Gaff

Iffy: Schofield, Lynch, Nicoski, Gaff
Waiting: Ashley Smith, Bradd Dalziell, Luke Shuey, Tom Swift
Injured: Mitchell Brown, Sam Butler, Nic Naitanui, Adam Selwood, Daniel Kerr

I’m cheating a little bit here by assuming that all of the players struggling to get fit for R1 stay out. However, with North’s selection woes being even more pronounced, the opening game is looking like a bit of a bye for the Eagles, so they might be able to afford to give their senior players an extra week to prepare.

What West Coast will need to do is stop the Roos’ pocket dynamoes, which is why McGinnity and Scott Selwood play together to combat Thomas and Harvey. The Eagles backline is a little short, but then again so is North’s forward line.

Gaff was used off the subs bench multiple times in preseason and that’s where I think he’s suited to start with. Especially for Subiaco games, West Coast is likely to try to use the position to inject pace in the second half.

North Melbourne
FB: Daniel Pratt, Scott D. Thompson, Brady Rawlings
HB: Michael Firrito, Robbie Tarrant, Cameron Richardson
C: Liam Anthony, Daniel Wells, Leigh Adams
HF: Sam Wright, Lachlan Hansen, Brent Harvey
FF: Lindsay Thomas, Aaron Edwards, Ben Warren
Fol: Todd Goldstein, Jack Ziebell, Andrew Swallow
Int: Cruize Garlett, Gavin Urquhart, Ben McKinley
Sub: Shaun Atley

Iffy: Pratt, McKinley, Urquhart, Warren
Waiting: no one worth mentioning
Injured: Ryan Bastinac, Nathan Grima, Hamish McIntosh, Levi Greenwood, Matt Campbell],, Ed Lower, Marcus White, Ben Mabon, Ben Ross
Suspended: Drew Petrie
LTI: Ayden Kennedy

Cox could set a record for hit outs, as Goldstein will have little to no help at all. North have already hinted they are not going to promote Majak Daw off the rookie list and have made no mention of doing the same for Cameron Pederson, so for the round or two that Petrie and McIntosh are absent, it will be Hansen et al to pinch hit in ruck support.

I am concerned about the lack of run on that bench, but North is not a quick side at the best of times. Atley wouldn’t last a full game on the WACA, which is why he starts in the green bib. There is precious little behind him in the battle for round 1 selection, though.

Let me know in the comments what you disagree with in these projections. Who do you turf out to give Bail a much-deserved guernsey for round 1? Do Rohan and Sumner both play full games, or are they subs fodder at best? How about Gaff and Atley, can they escape the green or red bib?

A reminder on the structure of these posts: they are intended as a guide to the players who are in consideration for the first game of the season for each team. Please note that the “iffy” and “waiting” lists are always four names long – thus some players are named who you would think are locks in the 21 just to fill out the numbers – and they are not listed in order of likelihood. Also, the “injured” list sometimes includes players who are not still injured, technically, but will not be considered for selection because they have not yet recovered sufficient fitness in rehab from a previous injury.

Brisbane
FB: Joel Patfull, Daniel Merrett, Brent Staker
HB: Jed Adcock, Matt Maguire, Pearce Hanley
C: Jack Redden, Daniel Rich, Jared Polec
HF: Ashley McGrath, Jonathan Brown, James Polkinghorne
FF: Rohan Bewick, Mitchell Clark, Todd Banfield
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Tom Rockliff, Simon Black
Int: Luke Power, Ryan Harwood, Amon Buchanan
Sub: Cheynee Stiller

Iffy: Polkinghorne, Buchanan, Stiller, Harwood
Waiting: Bryce Retzlaff, Ryan Lester, Andrew Raines
Injured: Josh Drummond, Xavier Clarke, Callum Bartlett, Jamie Charman, Mitchell Golby

Geez, there’s not much in the way of competition for those last half dozen spots. Most fan 21s include Raines, but I couldn’t stomach it. Please, no! If Raines is a best 22 player for an AFL club, that’s a sign that expansion has made lists too shallow.

The most pressing concern is what is in Michael Voss’s head. How soon does he give the season up for dead and play the kids? Judging from preseason form, the earlier the better. Young players like Beams, Green, Retzlaff and Lester are not ready, but is it better for the club long-term for Voss to officially give up on the experiment that brought the likes of Raines, Buchanan and Staker to Brisbane in favour of getting games into the future of the franchise?

My initial judgment is that he’ll try to manage his way to a win or two early to keep fans at least moderately interested, thus Buchanan and Stiller will play their roles. The sub position at Brisbane this year will increasingly be used to blood youth, though.

Fremantle
FB: Nick Lower, Antoni Grover, Alex Silvagni
HB: Greg Broughton, Luke McPharlin, Nick Suban
C: Stephen Hill, Paul Duffield, Adam McPhee
HF: Chris Mayne, Matthew Pavlich, Nathan Fyfe
FF: Michael Johnson, Jack Anthony, Hayden Ballantyne
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Rhys Palmer, David Mundy
Int: Viv Michie, Dylan Roberton, Ryan Crowley
Sub: Kepler Bradley

Iffy: Lower, Michie, Roberton, Crowley
Waiting: Jonathan Griffin, Michael Walters, Jay Van Berlo, Peter Faulks
Injured: Michael Barlow, Tendai Mzungu, Roger Hayden, Matthew de Boer, Clayton Hinkley, Joel Houghton, Garrick Ibbotson, Tim Ruffles, Byron Schammer
LTI: Anthony Morabito

It’s a sign of the strength of Fremantle these days that even with that shockingly long injury list, there’s still a decent amount of competition for spots.

Lower is a monty to be elevated after an eye-catching NAB. Michie I’m not so sure about with regards to JS (job security), because as a small forward he has a lot of similar players to contend with. Under normal circumstances he’d be playing WAFL as depth for Fyfe and Mayne, but with both of those two in fine fettle I’m not sure he’ll get a consistent run. Faulks is still behind Silvagni and Roberton at this stage, despite Roberton not appearing in the NAB.

The subs position at Fremantle will be used to support 211, I think. Bradley is the sort of player who could platoon with Johnson, or even Silvagni, who was tried in the ruck in the NAB Challenge on the weekend.

Essendon
FB: Mark McVeigh, Dustin Fletcher, David Myers
HB: Michael Hibberd, Cale Hooker, Dyson Heppell
C: Courtenay Dempsey, Heath Hocking, Jake Melksham
HF: David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley, Angus Monfries
FF: Patrick Ryder, Mark Williams, Leroy Jetta
Fol: David Hille, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton
Int: Brent Prismall, Ben Howlett, Jason Winderlich
Sub: Kyle Hardingham

Iffy: Prismall, Melksham, Howlett, Jetta
Waiting: Kyle Reimers, Tom Bellchambers, Stewart Crameri, Scott Gumbleton
Injured: Darcy Daniher, Alwyn Davey, Tayte Pears, Henry Slattery, Andrew Welsh
LTI: Anthony Long

There are a lot of question marks about Essendon’s personnel for me. Not about their structure, just on which players will fill which positions. Same as last year, it’s hard to fit Monfries, Zaharakis, Jetta, Davey and Reimers into three small forward spots.

Crameri is currently still on the rookie list, but there are one or two LTI propects in Walsh and Daniher who could open the elevator door. Gumby’s form in yet another interrupted preseason has been average, while Williams has not been consistent either.

The most glaring weakness in that side is a lack of height, which is why Hardingham is probably the weakest pick of mine because Nathan Lovett-Murray is probably a better player of that versatile switch hitter sub role. But Hardingham’s NAB form is undeniable, while NLM played two underwhelming half-games in the first round.

Western Bulldogs
FB: Dale Morris, Brian Lake, Easton Wood
HB: Robert Murphy, Tom Williams, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Callan Ward
HF: Justin Sherman, Jarrad Grant, Patrick Veszpremi
FF: Shaun Higgins, Barry Hall, Daniel Giansiracusa
Fol: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
Int: Will Minson, Liam Picken, Josh Hill
Sub: Brodie Moles

Iffy: Hill, Moles, Sherman, Lake (knee/hip/shoulder)
Waiting: Nathan Djerrkura, Brennan Stack, Zephaniah Skinner, Lukas Markovic
Injured: Ryan Hargrave
Suspended: Dylan Addison

You will no doubt notice the absence of Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore from the waiting list. That’s because I just can’t see how the Dogs name them if they are picking their best 22 each week, particularly after the recruitment of Djerrkura and Sherman. There are probably only two full spots and two half-spots (sub and to-be-subbed) for Ward, Hill, Moles, Wallis, Liberatore, Sherman and Djerrkura to fight over, given the stability of the rest of the structure.

Stack and Skinner are contending for back and forward spots respectively, where competition is a teensy bit less fierce than the midfield. This forward line is a little small – as is traditional for the Bulldogs – but that will suit against Essendon where Fletcher has trouble with zippy opponents exploiting him on fast breaks. Markovic is the logical replacement for Lake if he doesn’t get up.

Let me know in the comments what you disagree with in these projections. How much does Hanley on a HBF interest you? Can Essendon afford to play both Hibberd and Heppell? What is Michie’s JS like? Who would you tip out for Wallis and/or Libba Jnr?

A reminder on the structure of these posts: they are intended as a guide to the players who are in consideration for the first game of the season for each team. Please note that the “iffy” and “waiting” lists are always four names long – thus some players are named who you would think are locks in the 21 just to fill out the numbers – and they are not listed in order of likelihood. Also, the “injured” list sometimes includes players who are not still injured, technically, but will not be considered for selection because they have not yet recovered sufficient fitness in rehab from a previous injury.

Collingwood
FB: Alan Toovey, Chris Tarrant, Leon Davis
HB: Heritier O’Brien, Ben Reid, Heath Shaw
C: Dale Thomas, Dane Swan, Ben Johnson
HF: Steele Sidebottom, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
FF: Brent Macaffer, Chris Dawes, Andrew Krakouer
Fol: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Ball
Int: Leigh Brown, Sharrod Wellingham, Dayne Beams
Sub: Jarryd Blair

Iffy: Macaffer, Blair, Beams, Tarrant (knee)
Waiting: John McCarthy, Tyson Goldsack, Lachlan Keeffe, Simon Buckley
Injured: Nick Maxwell, Josh Thomas
LTI: Nathan Brown

I am assuming here that Maxwell either doesn’t recover from his kidney bleeding, or is given extra time to heal regardless. As for his replacement, I am not sold on Keeffe. He looked anything but ready against Essendon in my view with two 50m penalties given away for petulant conduct that resulted in scores. Goldsack is underdone, and Malthouse will give the Neon BP experiment time to develop. I don’t believe in Buckley either. He has that Rainesian ability to look great sprinting out of defence with suntanned industriousness, but his long, high kicks are rarely effective.

I think Macaffer is just ahead of McCarthy at this stage, but not by much. Post the retirement of Steak Knives, this is a spot that must be filled by a heavy body shape like those two, as opposed to a Brad Dick type. Dick himself will work through the magoos.

I can see Blair as a subs specialist, switching with the likes of Beams or Sidebottom to maximise run from fresh legs.

Port Adelaide
FB: Paul Stewart, Alipate Carlile, Troy Chaplin
HB: Matthew Broadbent, Jackson Trengove, Steven Salopek
C: Danyle Pearce, Domenic Cassisi, Robbie Gray
HF: Chad Cornes, Justin Westhoff, Brett Ebert
FF: Cameron Hitchcock, Jay Schulz, Daniel Motlop
Fol: Dean Brogan, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes
Int: Tom Logan, Matt Thomas, David Rodan
Sub: Jarrad Irons

Iffy: P. Stewart, Salter, Broadbent, Thomas
Waiting: Mitchell Banner, Hamish Hartlett, Jason Davenport, Daniel Stewart
Injured: Jacob Surjan, Ben Jacobs, Matthew Lobbe, Andrew Moore, Ben Newton, Simon Phillips

You could add Jasper Pittard and Jarrad Redden to that waiting list too, as they are all thereabouts. Thomas and Logan are classic 22nd/23rd men, so with Surjan recovering from his knee problems in the WAFL, Thomas’s stopping ability will be needed in the short term.

While under normal circumstances D. Stewart would get a gig as a third tall forward, with the marking ability of Ebert and Chad plus D. Motlop’s multitudinous skills, playing a 200cm bloke as your third option with his lack of frontal pressure is a laxity that can’t be afforded in the footy world of 2011.

I am putting Irons in there because I think he’ll get a run at the start of the year coming off a decent preseason and will provide decent run off the subs bench. I don’t expect him to be there all year, though.

Port’s drafting strategy of picking the sluttiest ball magnets in junior ranks may pay off in future years, but I can’t find a spot for the likes of Banner, Broadbent or Hartlett at the moment. In fact, one has to wonder whether Port and coach Matthew Primus will suffer under the new defensive-minded AFL, given they are the biggest frontrunning unit in footy. One might start to raise eyebrows if these kids can’t get nearly as much traditional Port-style cheap outside stuff as in previous years. Thus, they might find that lesser-skilled hard nuts like Thomas and Logan are the sort of players who win games over the outside-running flashy kids. But hey, that’s why they pay coaches the big bucks, people!

Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Michael Doughty, Phil Davis, Brad Symes
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly
HF: Chris Knights, Taylor Walker, Ricky Henderson
FF: Patrick Dangerfield, Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia
Fol: Ivan Maric, Nathan Van Berlo, Bernie Vince
Int: Rory Sloane, Andy Otten, Richard Douglas
Sub: Matthew Jaensch

Iffy: Otten, Sloane, Henderson, Jaensch
Waiting: Richard Tambling, Brodie Smith, Sam Jacobs, Shaun McKernan
Injured: Ian Callinan, Jared Petrenko, Sam Shaw, James Craig, Will Young

Unlike last preseason, Adelaide’s best 22 is mostly fit, creating the opposite dilemma of what Neil Craig faced for round 1 of 2010. The main choices are that due to structural issues and 16 of the 21 being set in stone, for the other five spots you have to pick: four of Tambling, Symes, Sloane, Smith, Jaensch, Otten and Reilly; and one of Henderson, James Sellar, Jacobs, Brad Moran and McKernan. Then you have to figure out whether Craig will want pace or height in the subs position. Ask any group of Crow fans and they’ll give you different combinations to each other.

Otten is obviously the most fantasy relevant of these, and it is interesting that he has been given run-with roles in preseason. Van Berlo is being named on a HBF in most fan sides at this stage, underlining his role behind the play which replaces what Otten did in 2009. Can Craig play Reilly and Otten both doing tagging roles in the same side? Not every week, I’d suggest. The obvious set up there is Reilly tagging, Symes rebounding and Otten switching between the two roles… but where does that leave Tambling? In the SANFL, I suspect, at least to start with. Then you have Jaensch and Sloane, who are suited for small forward roles, but you can maybe only squeeze one of them in to support the dominant Porps/Danger/Knights combo.

As for McKernan, can Craig really give him the green bib and expect him to cover injuries, given he resembles an overweight giraffe? If push comes to shove and one of the big forwards is having problems, Stevens can switch and Otten can cover him as the third tall back. I think Adelaide will use their sub to provide run, run and more run. That’s why Jaensch is my Crow sub, as he has shown a bit both forward and back.

Hawthorn
FB: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Cameron Bruce
C: Clinton Young, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Jordan Lewis
FF: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, David Hale
Fol: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Xavier Ellis, Brad Sewell, Brendan Whitecross
Sub: Ryan Schoenmakers

Iffy: Whitecross, Ellis, Schoenmakers, Hodge (achilles)
Waiting: Paul Puopolo, Liam Shiels, Rick Ladson, Jordan Lisle
Injured: Sam Menegola

Not since the flag year of 2008 has Hawthorn been this injury-free this early. Only Hodge is carrying anything serious. Personally, I’m singing the Doom Song.

Anyway, with everyone present and accounted for, it’s a bit hard to find places for fringe players. Kyle Cheney doesn’t make the list, and neither does Isaac Smith. Journeymen like Jarryd Morton, Matt Suckling and Thomas Murphy stay at Box Hill at this stage.

Schoenmakers at the sub spot is an acknowledgement of the limitations of Hale, who is a player made to be subbed off after giving his regulation 15 minutes of effort per match. The Hawks hierarchy might want a bit more pace off the bench in the form of Shiels or Smith, but with Hale in the side they will have to work around him. (Perhaps you can tell I’m not a Hale fan.)

Let me know in the comments what you disagree with in these projections. Are you a Leon believer? Has Port zigged when they should have zagged at the draft table? How much JS does Otten really have? Can you squeeze Puopolo or Smith into the all-fit Hawk 22?

A reminder on the structure of these posts: they are intended as a guide to the players who are in consideration for the first game of the season for each team. Please note that the “iffy” and “waiting” lists are always four names long – thus some players are named who you would think are locks in the 21 just to fill out the numbers – and they are not listed in order of likelihood. Also, the “injured” list sometimes includes players who are not still injured, technically, but will not be considered for selection because they have not yet recovered sufficient fitness in rehab from a previous injury.

Carlton
FB: Nicholas Duigan, Jeremy Laidler, Dennis Armfield
HB: Chris Yarran, Paul Bower, Jordan Russell
C: Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs, Heath Scotland
HF: Andrew Carrazzo, Lachie Henderson, Andrew Walker
FF: Jeff Garlett, Jarrad Waite, Eddie Betts
Fol: Robert Warnock, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy
Int: Shaun Hampson, Mitch Robinson, Aaron Joseph
Sub: Ryan Houlihan

Iffy: Duigan, Laidler, Houlihan, Murphy (knee)
Waiting: Matthew Watson. Kane Lucas, Brock McLean, Andrew Collins
Injured: Matthew Kreuzer, Luke Mitchell
Suspended: Michael Jamison, David Ellard

Houlihan, Carrazzo and McLean are all coming off interrupted preseasons, and Murphy was seen in civvies at the last NAB match with a knee problem. Either of Duigan and Laidler could be replaced by Watson for the two games that Jamison is out suspended, but after that you’d think only one guaranteed spot is available for the three of them, with the outside chance of two spots depending on matchups.

Collins is coming from as far back as Houlihan in his preseason, so I think they’ll plump for Houlihan’s flexibility in the sub spot. Joseph will be preferred over McLean and will be given the job on Foley, as against Richmond they will not need McLean’s blocking ability so much – assuming Murphy is fit.

Richmond
FB: Kelvin Moore, Will Thursfield, Luke McGuane
HB: Chris Newman, David Astbury, Shaun Grigg
C: Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin, Mitch Morton
HF: Daniel Connors, Brad Miller, Robin Nahas
FF: Troy Taylor, Jack Riewoldt, Tyrone Vickery
Fol: Angus Graham, Nathan Foley, Dustin Martin
Int: Reece Conca, Bachar Houli, Shane Tuck
Sub: Matt White

Iffy: Miller, Conca, White, Graham
Waiting: Ben Griffiths, Jayden Post, Shane Edwards, Tom Derickx
Injured: Daniel Jackson, Ben Nason
Suspended: Jake King

Richmond fans are chirpier than normal this preseason, as if they have forgotten all about how chirpy they were the last two or three seasons at this point, just prior to getting the living suitcase kicked out of them on opening night. They are talking up names like Jake Batchelor and David Gourdis, like they’re farmers from Ballarat at the Royal Easter Show spruiking for the blue riband for Best Potato.

Back in the land of reality, the Tigers list is healthy at the moment so the best 22 will pretty much be on the park on the 24th. Having said that, a significant number of players will be underdone going into R1 like Griffiths, Foley, Moore, Jackson and Nason – plus the preseason hasn’t been graced with much attendance by Deledio, Newman or Riewoldt. Nevertheless, coach Hardwick will want to make a decent impression in the opening game for once, and will try to present his strongest team. For this reason, I think that Miller plays early while Griffiths recovers.

White seems to me to be a ready-made subs player: quick, workmanlike, versatile but not really best 21 material.

Geelong
FB: Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: James Kelly, Joel Corey, David Wojcinski
HF: Steve Johnson, Tom Hawkins, Paul Chapman
FF: Mathew Stokes, Brad Ottens, Shannon Byrnes
Fol: Mark Blake, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood
Int: Tom Lonergan, Mitchell Duncan, Taylor Hunt
Sub: Daniel Menzel

Iffy: T. Hunt, Menzel, Lonergan, Chapman (calf)
Waiting: Travis Varcoe, Trent West, Simon Hogan, Steven Motlop
Injured: Cameron Mooney, James Podsiadly, Cameron Ling, Marcus Drum

I am projecting Chappy to be the only one to recover for round 1 of the multitude of sore Cats, mainly due to Sod’s Law. Varcoe will be underdone coming off a long convalescence, and Geelong really do need to play Menzel and T. Hunt a lot this year, not to mention Hogan and Motlop.

The absence of the forward spine presents a big short-term problem for new coach Chris Scott, one which will mean Blake gets a much greater chance than he will once Moondog and the jPod return. Down back, Mackie has had a poor preseason and Milburn is being talked up as a subs specialist, though I suspect if that is true of the latter then he’d more likely start on the field and be the designated redshirt.

St Kilda
FB: Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, Sam Fisher
HB: Jason Gram, Jason Blake, James Gwilt
C: Farren Ray, Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard
HF: Andrew McQualter, Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna
FF: Sam Gilbert, Ryan Gamble, Stephen Milne
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Nick Dal Santo, Clinton Jones
Int: Rhys Stanley, David Armitage, Sean Dempster
Sub: Jarryn Geary

Iffy: Stanley, Dempster, Baker, Geary
Waiting: Raphael Clarke, Brett Peake, Alistair Smith, Daniel Archer
Injured: Justin Koschitzke, Jack Steven
LTI: Michael Gardiner
Suspended: Adam Schneider

This team is pretty settled. Stanley is ahead of Archer as the third tall forward cum ruck support, due to exposed form and list placement – Archer is still a rookie and may stay there despite Gardiner’s LTI status, with Robert Eddy a better option to upgrade.

At this stage I’m projecting that Baker and Dempster can start in the same side, albeit one of them (probably Baker) would be earmarked to be subbed off for Geary in this structure. That option may only last as long as Schneider’s suspension, though.

Let me know in the comments what you disagree with in these projections. How long will Duigan and Laidler last after Jamison’s return? DO you believe in Grigg off a HBF? How about the T.Hunt/Menzel combo at Geelong, are they really going to play the kids from round 1? Stanley: deadly or spudly?