As you should know if you read the above post, Champion classifies each player according to their position (Defender, Midfielder, Forward, Ruck, Utility), size (Small, Medium, Tall) and role (In or Out for midfielders, General or Key for forwards and backs). Size is easy to work out: Small means under 180cm, Medium is 180-189, and Tall is 190+. Position is mostly straightforward, though Champion does tend to give out the Utility tag rarely, preferring to shoehorn players into a traditional position where possible. The In/Out divide for midfielders is based on statistics, with Inside midfielders tackling more with contested possessions, and Outside mids marking more with uncontested possessions. The General/Key difference is also based on numbers, with Key Forwards getting contested marks, Key Defenders specialising in spoils, General Defenders dominating in Rebound 50s and General Forwards collecting ground-based stats.

So, with those guidelines in mind, here’s my guesstimates of how each draft prospect will be classified:

Def-Med-Gen
Clancee Pearce, Kade Klemke, Matt Kilpin, Rory Sloane
About average for rookie potential, not much in the way of value here unless Pearce or Klemke are named for Round 1.

Def-Small-Gen
Nick Suban
This is a top 5 position for rookies in Dream Team, which has seen Suban’s name prominent on Fanplanner back benches. No reason to think that is the wrong thing to do.

Def-Tall-Gen
Jarrad Blight
Below average for fantasy. Avoid.

Def-Tall-Key
Michael Hurley, Jackson Trengove, Phil Davis, Jayden Post, Jordan Jones, Lukas Markovic, Michael Gugliotta, Riley Milne, Tom Gillies, Will Young
Looking at historical data, this is pretty much the bottom of the barrel for fantasy purposes. Those who enjoyed the debut seasons of Nathan J. Brown and Harry Taylor this year might be tempted to go for Hurley and Trengove in 2009, as evidenced in Fanplanner where Hurley in particular is attracting a lot of interest, but be warned that both NJB and Harry were actually classified as Utility-Tall this year. If any of these players are officially nominated as Utility-Talls by Champion, especially Trengove and Hurley, time to reassess their worth.

Fwd-Med-Gen
Chris Yarran, Nick Heyne, Brad Mangan, Sam Wright, Tom Rockliff, Trent Dennis-Lane
A lot of coaches are on the Yarran bandwagon in the pre-season, and there’s a fair bit of love for Heyne as well. However, the data doesn’t really support that kind of optimism for this position. Admittedly Yarran is only 1cm over the cutoff height for being classed as Small, which is a much more lucrative position.

Fwd-Med-Key
Ben Bucovaz
At 188cm on last records, he’ll probably grow enough by draft time to qualify as Tall anyway. Having said that, this position is #1 for DT in rookie starts, so keep an eye on where he gets drafted (if at all).

Fwd-Small-Gen
Michael Walters, Neville Jetta, Hayden Ballantyne, Chris Hall, Ian Richardson, John Bennell
While most of the attention is on Yarran, Walters and Jetta may end up being better value. Likely to be picked in the second round and thus escape the tariff levied on top 10 picks, these two boys could well be the Cyril Rioli and Cameron Stokes of 2009.

Fwd-Tall-Gen
Ryan Schoenmakers
No.

Fwd-Tall-Key
Jack Watts, Lewis Johnston, Tom Hill, Aaron Cornelius, Lance Daly, Michael Still, Mitch Brown, Nathan O’Keefe, Paul Cahill
Watts is overpriced, even if you overlook the dreaded Year 12 that he’ll be studying through. Johnston might be a sneaky Super Coach pick if he drops to someone like Geelong who could slot him straight in, but that’s about it.

Mid-Med-In
Daniel Rich, David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Matt DeBoer, Adam Cockie, Dan Hannebery, James Strauss, Jay Shannon, Luke Shuey, Matthew Suckling, Tom Allwright
Rich is almost a lock now - 90% of recent Fanplanner teams include him - but searching for diamonds in the rest of this list is more difficult. If Zaharakis gets picked up by someone like the Dockers who are looking to play kids in the guts, he turns into a viable option. The same probably goes for DeBoer. Beams probably won’t play round 1 at wherever he ends up, but is worth scouting later in the season when he does get picked. Cockie could be anything, from a Davey to an Oakley-Nicholls, so pre-season and magoo form would dictate his popularity.

Mid-Med-Out
Hamish Hartlett, Steele Sidebottom, Stephen Hill, Sam Blease, Alistair Smith, Ash Smith, Jamason Daniels, Johnny Rayner, Liam Anthony, Liam Shiels, Luke Rounds, Matthew Broadbent, Mitch Robinson, Todd Banfield
Just middling in averages for early games by this type of player, but the good ones are very good. You’re going to have to pay that top 10 tariff to get the players who start in round 1, I suspect, like Hartlett and Sidebottom. Will it be worth it? I’m waiting to see which club they’re drafted by, as I think that’s going to have a significant effect on their debut year. Hartlett might drop all the way to Richmond at #8, which wouldn’t be a bad result at all. Brisbane are making noises about Sidebottom at #7, and that would be awesome for his prospects. Here’s hoping!

Mid-Small-In
Jaryd Blair, Mitch Banner, Tom German
As a top 3 position for the first three games of rookies in DT, there should be some interest here, though probably not in round 1 as none of this trio are likely to be picked before round 3 of the draft.

Mid-Small-Out
Ranga Ediriwickrama, Ben Speight, Clint Garlett, Dylan McNeil, Jamie Sheahan
Another position where you will have to wait until mid-season to find value, I suspect.

Mid-Tall-In
Tom Swift
This is an interesting one. Swift is being touted as a first-rounder, with Geelong stating in public their desire to draft him at #15, only to hear that other clubs are also looking at him with earlier picks. However, tall inside midfielders traditionally do very poorly to start with in fantasy, especially in Super Coach. Perhaps the size that used to have these kids tower over their rivals in junior ranks doesn’t seem so big when they start matching up at the bottom of AFL packs with full-grown men? Whatever the reason, this is one player to watch carefully in the pre-season if you’re thinking about stashing him on your bench. (A note: I’m not fully confident on whether he’s inside or outside.)

Mid-Tall-Out
Luke Stanton
Will be picked up very late if at all in the National Draft, but if he gets rookied then perversely he may become more attractive.

Ruckman-Tall
Nick Naitanui, Tyrone Vickery, Ayce Cordy, Andrew Browne, Bart McColluch, Broc McCauley, Jarred Redden, Joel Smouha, Jordan Roughead, Rhys Stanley, Zachary Clarke
My feeling is that the top two are overpriced and there’s a lot more value this year in second-and third-year rucks who are still at bargain prices. Pre-season form will tell a lot about NicNat and Vickery, especially the role that their teams are going to expect of them.

Utility-Med
Jack Ziebell, Rhys O’Keefe
A strong top five position in all fantasy comps for rookies, so it’s no surprise that both of these players are figuring heavily on plan team benches. I reckon the popularity of both of these players will only grow in the pre-season with a good showing or two in the NAB.

Utility-Tall
Jordan Lisle, Steve Gaertner, Tom Lynch, Shaun McKernan
This position is a special one for Super Coach, as the aforementioned Brown and Taylor were both outstanding in that competition this year despite having less than impressive Dream Team debut years. McKernan is a ruck/forward but the other three are all likely to get back/forward eligibility, which will lead to them being very heavily scrutinised with a view to stashing them on back benches.

So, did I get any of my guesses horribly wrong? Does this change your mind about any draftee you were wavering over? Let me know in the comments.

Generally, coaches know what to do in this situation. A senior player with proven elite-level statistical output, missing a year through misadventure, comes back to the game with an attractively discounted price and a padlock on his spot in fantasy 22s. Think Nick Stevens and Troy Simmonds this year, Nigel Lappin in 2007, or Josh Francou earlier in the oughties.

However, we have never had to deal with a fantasy-relevant player whose injury is not just to the body - though with a history of hamstring injuries, there’s that to deal with as well - but to the mind, as a self-confessed drug addict. Add the associations with criminal elements, midnight swims in rivers, excursions to Arizona and the rest and it’s a circus freak show. How to assess his prospects in the AFL in 2009?

Let’s start with his price. Following the usual rule of a 42% discount on his year-ago production, Cousins will be priced at an average of 52.8 points per game in Dream Team, and 60.7 for Super Coach - I’ve got him at $252,600 in DT and $325,600 in SC in the Fanplanner based on a rough 10% magic number increase. This will put him at the equivalent price of Nick Stevens this year, after an early-season ankle injury in 2007 deflated Stevens’ price down to a point where he was a no-brainer midfield keeper.

Next, let’s check his historical numbers. Cousins was never an elite fantasy midfielder in his first nine years in the league, never reaching a DT average of 90, but that changed in the grand final years of 2005-06 where he topped 95 in DT both years and cleared the 100 in SC by a large margin. Obviously the advent of Chris Judd as the premier inside player in the competition did fabulous things for Cousins’ numbers, allowing him to play more outside. His mark tallies changed markedly: in 17 games in 2004 he only managed four or more marks twice with no bags of six, whereas in 2005 he got to four marks 12 times, and managed six marks on seven of those occasions.

2007, of course, is when the wheels fell off. I won’t go into the off-field stuff, you all know it. Suspended by the club, he finally returned in triumphant fashion with a legendary DT score of 140 against Sydney in round 16, only to break down in the first final against Port Adelaide clutching his torn hamstring. Rumblings in the media at the time included accusations of over-training, not helped by Cousins’ bagful-of-walnuts physique that looked a tad too muscly for football.

All of these factors must weigh on your decision on whether to buy him for your 2009 squads. That’s not a throwaway line, either: coaches I am listening to are being tempted by Cousins’ pure numbers, as if he’s just another Stevens or Francou with a simple injury, putting aside the ridiculous farce that Cousins’ life has turned into at times over the past few years.

There seems to be a mindset among a certain type of footy fan (who is also a fantasy coach in his/her spare time) that their club should just sweep all of Cousins’ problems under the rug because the only important thing is football, and certain clubs desperately need the sort of player they remember him as being. I feel a little skeptical of that sort of blind hope. It’s true that Brisbane, Collingwood and St Kilda are short a midfielder or two, but is Cousins really the answer? He’s going to be 30 next year, he’s not a game-breaker like Judd. His game has subtly shifted to more of an outside role, so to be as effective as he was at West Coast he’s going to need a Judd type (not to mention Daniel Kerr rotating through) to feed him the pill.

So we come to his potential suitors. St Kilda is the club most associated with him in the media, though Brisbane is also making noises, and has earlier picks in both drafts. Which would be better for his fantasy production?

My feeling is that the Lions would be ideal, and that’s down to one man: Simon Black. Just as Travis Johnstone’s AFL career was reinvigorated this year by the Brownlow medallist, Black could fill that Judd-shaped hole in Cousins’ preferred gameplan to a tee. At the moment there’s not much to write home about in the Lions midfield from a fantasy perspective, with players like Justin Sherman and Michael Rischitelli burning fantasy coaches who showed faith in them in previous years. The advent of Cousins would be immeasurably helpful to their B midfield rotation, which contends with Fremantle for the worst in the league.

If he does go to the Saints, I think the likelihood is that the big winner from a fantasy perspective is Nick Dal Santo, who would thrive with less attention from taggers and return to being a top six Super Coach midfielder. Cousins himself may be used as a decoy by the Saints… when not suffering further hammy twangs from the concrete underlay at Docklands.

Personally, as a rather conservative fantasy coach, I am not going to take the chance on Cousins at this stage, especially if he does become a Saint. I don’t trust his hamstring, I don’t trust his temperament, and I don’t trust Ross Lyon to give him enough time on ground in the guts. To me, he’s like Nick Stevens at the start of this year, except a week before round 1 a horse has kicked him in the near-healed ankle and you’ll have to wonder each week if he’s truly fit or not. That’s the sort of uncertainty he represents.

Then again, I went through the same mental process with Lance Franklin and those rumours this year, and look where that got me.

The Porpoise, so much beloved by fantasy coaches that I was pressured into creating a special icon for him on the FanFooty live scoring coverage, showed remarkable durability for a player knocked from pillar to post in his breakout season. With a shoulder that was dislocated in the first Showdown proving unwilling to stay in its socket after the lightest of touches, added to the concussion he suffered from a vicious hit behind play against the Blues, and it was amazing that he only missed four games. Willingness to deliver fantasy points while playing through pain is a quality that coaches adore, and I was one of many on the bandwagon again in 2009 for him to improve on his ‘08 averages.

Unfortunately, that four-month timeframe means a return scheduled for February 2009. With the Crows facing Geelong at Docklands on February 21 in their first NAB Cup game - where he’d most likely be rested - they’re not likely to go all the way to the final again so we probably won’t get to see him in a televised game, if he even does play during the pre-season.

I’ll be dropping him from my plan teams on this news. Starting competitive drills (i.e. contact work) in February is the definition of an interrupted pre-season, which means even if he does play early games, he’ll take a while to develop match hardness and his scores will suffer. The kid’s obviously got amazing powers of recuperation, though, so hopefully he’ll beat his comeback schedule and we can see him on the park in an Adelaide uniform in round 1. Their fans are hoping for that most of all, because there’s bugger all else down at the Crows in the way of goal-kicking potential with no Brett Burton to start the season either. Nick Gill, Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker and/or James Sellar aren’t much to build a forward line around. Get well soon, Porps!

First off, let me say that like all fantasy coaches, my heart goes out to the bloke. Having to choose between giving up footy and the possibility that you may never walk straight again is a tough thing to hear for a 24 year old. The quotes from Geelong assistant coach Neil Balme in this article are particularly alarming, leaving very little room for hope that Egan will ever return, let alone be right for round 1.

So, with that said, what does it mean for fantasy coaches? Egan was on a fair few Fanplanner Dream Teams - 17% bench and 13% starting - but it was Super Coach where his popularity was really blossoming, with many, me included, penciling him in as a round 1 starter in their SC 22 (27%) and others sticking him on their bench (8%). Even if he does play on, he’s pretty much 100% unlikely to make the team for round 1 given the prognosis so he should be off the table for starting teams for 2009 competitions.

The Geelong Advertiser is saying today that if he does stay on the Geelong list, Egan is likely to begin the season on the long-term injury list, which opens up an extra spot on the senior list for a rookie - bringing the number of rookies they can elevate to three. At this early stage before the rookie draft it’s hard to tell who will be chosen (if any), with Shane Mumford and the highly-rated Ranga Ediriwickrama the most likely to be used. If you’re looking for someone who might directly replace Egan then you won’t find anyone at the moment, as the Cats recently delisted Chris Kangars who was their only tall defender rookie - though if he gets re-rookied then that might be a sign.

As far as the rest of the Geelong backline, they’re starting to look a little old. Darren Milburn at 33 years of age, Tom Harley 31 and Matthew Scarlett 30 are all on the down slope of their careers. Andrew Mackie and Harry Taylor will gain even more responsibility, which might boost their SC stats with more contested possessions but will not be great for their DT numbers. If there’s an injury to any of those five then Josh Hunt and Max Rooke become more important, but neither is worthy of anything other than private league consideration.

So if you’ve got an Egan-sized hole in your DT or SC, who to replace him with? At a projected $117,700 in DT you’ve only got draftees below that price, so one of the myriad of key backs that are top 10 picks would be the easiest sideways trade - Michael Hurley (possibly at Carlton) and Jackson Trengove (maybe Adelaide) are expected to go in the first round. If the Crows don’t get Trengove they may well start the season with either Aaron Kite or Greg Gallman as their thrid tall defender, but I would advise severely dampening expectations in DT for either of these two even if they do play in round 1. My overall advice for DT coaches is to rejig your team so that you can buy someone more expensive. For an extra 15 grand you can get Nick Salter, and with 40 Gs you can afford Matt Maguire. To be honest, though, there’s really not much to buy until you hit $200,000 and Tayte Pears.

In Super Coach, where Egan cost $161,000 already, you have a little more wiggle room and better low-priced options. Maguire is practically the same price, making him the no-brainer swap given Goose’s average of 70 when fit - assuming that his foot recovers much better than Egan’s foot! Hurley and Trengove are likely to score more consistently in SC anyway, so saving the $65,000 to get them might be a better idea. Jordan Lisle, if you haven’t already got him, becomes an possibility in this format.

I’m sure this won’t be the last shock injury news. You can talk further about Egan’s replacement in your team in the Matthew Egan thread in the FanFooty Forum.

For the moment the forum database and the FanFooty user database are separate, so you’ll have to register and log in separately to your regular FF account. If someone else pinches your favourite username then let me know and I’ll deal with it.

The software I’ve used is still in beta form, so some bits and pieces might be missing or confusingly placed - I’ve noticed that the new topic page looks a little strange, for instance. Everything seems to work, though.

Enjoy!

P.S.: For those of you wanting to be mods, I think I’ll leave that until after Christmas.

I’ve had a look through the historical data on FanFooty for statistics from the first home & away game of all currently listed AFL players. I’ve grouped these numbers based on the Champion Data player types - those who bought the AFL Prospectus this year will know what I’m talking about, as Champion classifies each player according to their position (Defender, Midfielder, Forward, Ruck, Utility), size (Small, Medium, Tall) and role (In or Out for midfielders, General or Key for forwards and backs). Here’s the list, sorted by average:

Now you know why Chris Yarran is most popular bench forward and Steele Sidebottom is at the top of midfield benches in the Fanplanner. Small players fare up to 20 points better than talls at the same position in their first game.

Okay, so those beanpoles might get a little more wobbly in their debut among the big boys, but is that just opening night nerves? Let’s extend the numbers out to the first three games of all listed players.

The numbers bunch up as you’d expect, particularly at the bottom end of the scale where tall players start to find their feet.

For you Super Coach freaks out there, here’s the same table with SC numbers. I only have figures back from 2004 onwards, but there’s still a sizeable set of numbers to crunch. There’s a significantly different mix:

Forwards of all sizes and roles are almost all in the bottom half, which is big difference with the DT list. Tall defenders are still down towards the bottom but they’re startable in a pinch, as Nathan J. Brown and Harry Taylor were this year during the troubles. Small outside midfielders in particular are highly startable - this list includes Brent Harvey, Chance Bateman, Luke Power and Tarkyn Lockyer. The four medium key defenders in that list are Joel Bowden, Antoni Grover, Leo Barry and Josh Head.

For the sake of completion, here’s the three-game table for Super Coach:

We won’t know the official Champion Data designations until the AFL Prospectus comes out, which should be late January based on this year’s release schedule. They will prove to be an interesting read, especially for how utilities such as Sidebottom are classified. Another ream of data to throw in the pile for your pre-season reading!

Quayle, whose credibility apart from being an experienced journalist for the Age is the research she did for her book The Draft, made her predictions last year and nailed each one of the top ten, albeit that she had two or three options for some picks. This year her thoughts as expressed on radio SEN are as follows:

1. Jack Watts [Melbourne]
2. Nick Naitanui [West Coast]
3. Daniel Rich, Stephen Hill or Tyrone Vickery [Fremantle]
4. Vickery, Hamish Hartlett, Hill or Chris Yarran [Port Adelaide]
5. Yarran, Rich or Hill [Essendon]
6. Michael Hurley or Hartlett [Carlton]
7. Jack Ziebell, Hartlett or Steele Sidebottom [Brisbane]
8. Hartlett, Vickery or Ziebell [Richmond]
9. Lewis Johnston or Jordan Lisle [North Melbourne]
10. Phil Davis or Jackson Trengove [Adelaide]

The top two are pretty much set in stone everywhere you look, and few think that Freo will go past Rich, as he is just the sort of player they need to fill out their undermanned midfield. Port have already made noises about drafting Vickery, though with Choco Williams you never know what’s going to come out of his box of chocolates. After that it’s anyone’s guess on the order of the next four players: Hill, Hurley, Hartlett and Ziebell will probably be the four taken from 5-8 though. Beyond 8 it’s even more wide open, though Geelong has already staked its claim for Tom Swift and Freo’s second pick looks likely to be set aside for a small forward to replace Jeff Farmer, with Neville Jetta and Michael Walters in their sights.

How much of this is relevant to fantasy coaches? Everyone’s getting on board the Rich bandwagon, so there’s no news there. If you’re prepared to pay top draft dollar for NicNat and/or Vickery then good luck to you, though there’s no guarantees on them getting games with two established ruckmen at both clubs. Watts, who is in a fair few plan teams, is finishing year 12 next year so temper your expectations, as you should have this year with Scott Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield.

In many ways the main fantasy interest is outside the top 10 this year, as clubs seem to be laser-focused on talls. The shining example of Hawthorn’s 2004 draft stares at wannabe-Pelchens in the face, no doubt, as the November sunlight glints off the premiership medals of Jordan Roughead and Lance Franklin. Meanwhile, fantasy coaches know that smalls are where it’s at for fantasy value in first year players, so they’re looking at who picks up Yarran, Sidebottom, Jetta, Walters, Sam Blease, Nick Suban and Rhys O’Keefe. It looks like most of those players will escape the price premium put on top 10 picks by VirtualSports, making them even more tasty.

It should also be reiterated that rookies are going to become more important this year with the relaxation of rules on rookie elevation, such that rookies like Ranga Ediriwickrama could become much more popular than most draftees with fantasy coaches as midseason pickups.

More analysis of the draft when it happens, of course!

It’s an inevitable part of sport that older champions have to give way to youth. Some teams commit hard to youth policies even before the senior brigade are ready to go, such as with Essendon and Damien Peverill this year. Personnel shifts are not always good for AFL players, it must be remembered. Daniel Cross, beloved of so many coaches in the first half of 2008, eventually succumbed to a little-reported aspect of his game: that his statistics tend to suffer when Scott West isn’t in the team. Nevertheless, fantasy coaches are always on the lookout for a youngster who has a doddering superannuant in his sights, just waiting for the opportunity to see his name on the teamsheet in the old bloke’s spot.

Let’s start with the Power. Brendon Lade has been their #1 ruck through their glory years in the early oughties but when Lade has been injured, Dean Brogan has shown himself to be a more than capable fantasy performer. With Blade getting blunter by the month at the age of 33, Fabian Deluca delisted and Port every chance to draft Tyrone Vickery at #4 this year, the writing is on the wall for the big fella. Brogan is nicely priced, though not at Troy Simmonds 2008 levels. Watch this situation in the pre-season… perhaps not in the NAB itself, but more in the Challenge games.

Also at Port Adelaide, Peter Burgoyne had a pretty poor year culminating with banishment to the SANFL to regain his form. While he did return in R19 and eventually put in two excellent games in the last two rounds, he’s on a one-year performance-based contract and his spot in the team is by no means assured. Waiting in the shadows is Marlon Motlop, who also played in those last two games and showed a bit. He’s almost guaranteed of a nice discount for next year in Dream Team and Super Coach, deflating his price back to a very manageable $182k in DT and $206k in SC. As a small rebounding defender, he could very well be 2009’s Garrick Ibbotson. If he’s named in round 1, look out.

At the Bulldogs, Brad Johnson is 33 years old and his body looked like it this year. Down at Whitten Oval they are crying out for a long-term replacement at full-forward, and Scott Welsh and Will Minson ain’t it. Jarrad Grant is the anointed successor, in more ways than one. He will gain a lot of hype in the NAB - or at least as much hype as the media can muster for a Bulldog player - so you’ll have plenty of opportunity to gauge his effectiveness as a fantasy player.

Windy Hill is full of kids these days, though there are still a few wrinklies to be ironed out. Scott Lucas is on the tips of every fantasy coach’s lips at the moment, with Scott Gumbleton also popular. Is the Bomber half forward line big enough for the two of them? I’m not so sure. One of them has to win out as second tall, I think, and my money’s on coach Matthew Knights preferring the younger player. The other issue there is when the Don midfielders streaming through the centre will see the two players in their peripheral vision, which one they will kick to more often - Lucas probably being the pick of the experienced players, if Matthew Lloyd’s waving arms don’t catch their eye first. You only have to look at afl.com.au today for signs that the messages are mixed from Essendon: here’s a pro-Gumbleton article and a pro-Lucas one. Picking the victor in this battle between age and youth - or deciding not to touch either of them - is going to be an important factor in fantasy forward lines next year.

The other sequoia in the Essendon lineup is Dustin Fletcher, who is so old that he must have some great stories to tell of playing on full forwards of years past, like Fred Fanning and Gordon Coventry. For fantasy purposes, though, all we’re concerned about is Fletcher’s rebounding duties, which will have to fall on someone else’s shoulders in future. Courtenay Dempsey is one candidate, though I fear it is more in hope than hard logic, since Dempsey’s constantly-twanged hamstrings are even more highly strung than Paul Chapman’s. David Myers is a more likely pick, though his price will discourage many coaches who would want him to take a step all the way to keeper status to justify buying him, which is probably out of the question for this year at least.

At the Saints, the handover by Robert Harvey is now complete, albeit that the cadre of his replacements (Clinton Jones, Robert Eddy, Jarryn Geary) have already played enough games to price them out of salary cap consideration this year. St Kilda fans spent a lot of hot air talking up Max Hudghton late in the season for All-Australian selection without success, and that’s the last time they’ll be able to do it I think, seeing as he’s now 33. Matt Maguire is not normally a name you’ll read in fantasy blogs but after averaging just over 30 this year and coming off averages of 60 in DT and 74 in SC in his last healthy year, it’s not out of the question that Maguire could be stashed on your bench as a cash cow. Maguire is even more injury-prone than Hudghton, admittedly, so he could only ever be considered as a bench back. Given the insane problems we all had with bench backs and copping multiple zeroes this year, it’s worth looking at.

I spent part of the last blog post talking up Matthew Richardson, so nominating him as being under the gun is a bit cheeky, but nevertheless something should be said about Jack Riewoldt’s status as his replacement. Richo’s role swinging between wing and full forward meant that Riewoldt played 18 games this year, but it didn’t allow Riewoldt to average more than 58 in either comp. It was perhaps no coincidence that Riewoldt’s best fantasy performance, his solitary DT ton of 105 against the Eagles in round 15, came when Richo was out of the team. The performances of the two are strongly linked, with it being rare that both of them will fire on the same day. If Richo starts the season poorly or misses a stretch through almost-inevitable injury, Riewoldt is the one who will benefit.

I’ve also talked a bit about Darren Milburn and how his selection is probably not going to be as automatic in future years at the age of 33 next April. The recovery schedule of Matthew Egan is currently a point of conjecture in the media, with the Cats hierarchy claiming he’s on track for round 1. The fitter Egan gets, the more pressure will be on Milburn to not slip up.

I’m sure there are other transitions ready to be made out there. Can you think of any?

In the backs, by far the most popular premiums are Chad Cornes and Brendon Goddard, and it’s easy to see why. Chad is undervalued after an injury-plagued year, and Goddard had an outstanding finals series, at least from a fantasy perspective. Luke Hodge, Sam Fisher, Grant Birchall and Chris Newman also get some love. At the other end of the scale, however, are some surprising names.

Joel Bowden is the most expensive back at a projected $470,000 in DT, after a year in which he was dropped to the VFL for a month by Tigers coach Terry Wallace to toughen up his game. It didn’t seem to work all that well if hardness at the ball was required, because his tackle counts didn’t improve markedly when he was given a reprieve, though he did go on to win a fair few games later in the season. Bowden still plays the same old outside receiver job in the backline, and he still has trouble shutting down an opponent. I’ve already said in this blog that I like the Tigers a lot this year for fantasy, with Bowden being one of the shining stars. He’ll turn 32 during next season which is still way off from superannuation. He’s going to be a top 7 back by the end of the year if not top 3, thus you’re going to want to pick him up at some stage, and he doesn’t historically have poor starts. Why not pay for quality to begin with? Price must be the only thing holding coaches back.

Paul Wheatley was the #3 fantasy back in 2008 out of nowhere. The ball spent a lot of time in Melbourne’s backline this year, and Wheatley spent a lot of time rebounding and playing kick to kick while his opponents flooded the centre. There’s no indication at this stage that Dean Bailey is going to modify the Demons’ gameplan next year, nor that Melbourne is going to win many more games than they did this year, and with the lack of action in trade week they haven’t changed their personnel. The delisting of Chris A. Johnson means Wheatley has one less halfback rebounder to compete with for a spot, while Brad Green could well be moved back up the ground leaving even more ball for Wheatley. It may not be healthy for the MFC for Wheatley to play the role he’s playing, but I don’t rate Bailey as a good enough tactician to coach him out of the bad habits he’s gotten into.

Andrew Mackie and Nathan Bock at #4 and #11 in price respectively are also being marginalised. Both players have aging/retired backline teammates who will give up more responsibility to others in 2009, with Adelaide losing Nathan Bassett and Geelong likely to start transitioning out some of its older backs such as Darren Milburn. This is probably bad new for Mackie and Bock in DT, but could be good in SC as contested possessions go up.

Finally in the backs, Corey Enright is projected as the #7-ranked fantasy defender in the Fanplanner where I have made the (possibly bold) assumption that he will be reclassified as a back. While he is in about 10% of plan teams, I think this number is rather low. With the aforementioned Milburn aging, as well as Scarlett and Harley the wrong side of 30, the 28-year-old Enright could get a lot more rebounding work.

In the midfield, the top of the pops is all rookies and mid-price improvers (unless you count Jordan Lewis and Jed Adcock as premiums which is borderline), with the first true premium being Kane Cornes in DT at #9 and Jimmy Bartel in SC at #3. The ABC engine room at Geelong is predictably popular with Gary Ablett jnr getting more buys than Joel Corey, while Dane Swan, Shane Tuck and Chris Judd are numerous.

Scott Thompson is barely seen in plan teams, which is interesting because he was a top 5 midfielder this year and doesn’t look to have much in the way of competition at Adelaide. Brent Reilly and Chris Knights had injury-interrupted 2008s but it’s not as if they’re going to eat into ST’s TOG (time on ground) once they get back to 100% health. Thompson proved he can snag the big scores, passing 115 seven times during the season, so he’s a legitimate captain choice against the right opponent. If people aren’t prepared to shell out for Bowden and will instead pick up a Birchall, why not shy away from ABC and look at ST?

Matt Priddis is equally as stinky according to Fanplanner users. Everyone seems to be getting on board the Daniel Kerr bandwagon if they’re touching any Eagle mids, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Kerr cops the tag every week while Priddis is allowed to run outside and rack up halfback receives as much as he wants, due to the lack of hurt factor. Kerr being healthier this year will probably increase Priddis’ stats more than Kerr’s.

Marc Murphy was a top 10 fantasy centre in his third year in the AFL, managing a 97.1 average in DT, yet he’s also scarce in Fanplanner squads. Is it so crazy to think that there’s still improvement left in him? If Carlton is going to make the eight this year, as so many pundits project, surely Murphy has to have a better year. Again, a healthier Judd will probably make Murphy’s numbers look better.

Another #1 draft pick, Brett Deledio, will most likely be a centre in fantasy this year given his role during 2008… which will still place him inside the top 10 at his position. He was picked there for a reason, because he has the quality to step his game up each year, and as part of my bullishness on Richmond I’m prepared to predict another jump in stats for Lids in 2009. He’s in about 20% of plan teams but that’s not nearly popular enough in my opinion.

In the rucks, I’ve already expressed surprise at the love of Hamish McIntosh over many other premiums, given how he has to share work with Drew Petrie and David Hale, not to mention the offseason unrest with his contract. If you’re looking for value in your #2 ruck position - which I think is risky in 09 without a clear Troy Simmonds type - I actually like Dean Brogan a lot more, with the proviso that it is clear that the #1 ruck mantle has been well and truly passed from Brendon Lade in the pre-season.

David Hille is the most egregious omission from the list of most popular rucks. With a chip on his shoulder about All-Australian selection, close to zero threat for TOG coming from Jason Laycock, and an Essendon side that should improve next year, all signs point to him being reliable.

I also like Darren Jolly a lot in Super Coach, though he’s currently only in one SC team. One! He did turn in some shockingly bad numbers in games towards the end of the season, but with no Peter Everitt and only kids like Daniel Currie and Jesse White to support him in 2009 it’s all down to him at the Swans’ endless procession of stoppages.

For the forwards, it seems a lot of coaches were burnt this year by talls who got off to poor starts to the season. Nick Riewoldt and Jonathan Brown are both outside the top 15 in DT, though they both appear towards the bottom of the top 7 in SC. Brown in particular was a heartbreaker because of the preseason reports that all said he was gunning it, which in retrospect were all rubbish because it was revealed afterward that Brown was actually carrying injuries at the time. Riewoldt had a red hot second half of 2008 but plays Sydney in round 1 and then Adelaide away - though Rooey actually has a decent record against those two. The big run of games at Docklands early in the season is also a good sign. Riewoldt is just as likely as Lance Franklin to have a poor start given their respective schedules and histories, which makes it unbalanced that Buddy is so much more popular.

Matthew Richardson, on the other hand, is in a bare two DT and four SC teams at last count. This is perhaps understandable given his age, the fact that he suffered with stress-related injuries for the second half of 2008, and that his change in role to the wing was the major factor in those injuries, making it probable that it can’t be sustained over the course of a season. Nevertheless, even with the hotspots, bruising and soreness he still managed to be the #3 forward this season, and if Richmond is going to challenge for top four this year then he’s got to get even more leather.

Still on the injury-plagued, I’m a little surprised that Adam Goodes is still only in about 10% of sides. Reclassifying him as a CTR/FWD is perhaps too hopeful, but he’s a midfielder in forward’s clothing so he deserves to be in more squads, especially in Super Coach where you can never have too many Swans.

You lot are the ones who are using the Fanplanner, so how much consideration have you given to the above names? Can you see any “uniques” you would now look at again?

Projections are a well-established part of American fantasy sports. Publishers such as Sportsline, ESPN and Yahoo have experts for all their fantasy sports who prepare huge tables full of statistics indicating past performances and crunch the numbers to produce predictions for each player each week. I’ve just touched the surface of what is possible to do with AFL statistics, but here’s what goes into the FanFooty Guru projection, in order of importance and how they are applied:

• Rolling average in all recent games
• Rolling average versus opponent
• Rolling average at the ground of this week’s game
• Rolling average at the time that this week’s game is played (day, night or twilight)

Then there are modifying factors, which change the results of the above on a percentage basis:

• Health
• Guru nudge, a subjective push of the numbers by me when I think a number doesn’t look right, or the above factors produce a weird result
• Normalisation, a squishing up or down of all of a team’s scores to take into account the average amount of total points the opponent has given up in recent matches (i.e. this solidifies things like the Sydney effect)

The formula, while it looks complicated, is still relatively simple at the moment. I will investigate more granular factors like team vs type to take into account factors like Richmond and Carlton being harsh on midfielders, or how tall forwards usually escape the Sydney effect. Also there is currently no allowance for taggers or weather.

Note: The Guru points for round 1 are based on teams which I’ve collated from the various “best 22″ threads on BigFooty club boards and elsewhere. Thus you’ll see players like Ricky Petterd and Patrick Dangerfield benched, even though they are every chance to play in R1. Of course I’ll update these when the teamsheets come out. At the moment there are no Guru points predicted for rookies and draftees either - another aspect I’ll have to work on before the start of the season.

So, what do you think the weightings of the various factors should be? Are there any other numbers you’d like to see tossed into the cauldron to produce the projection?