Pretty much everyone on BigFooty knew that Ben Hudson was a must-have player this year, and there were a couple of other cheapies who’ve since risen to a more appropriate price. So, the time is right to upgrade to a ‘premium’ ruck – but who? Last year’s All-Australian ruckman is under $300k after a bad start to the year, and there are others more expensive with question marks hanging over their heads. I’m having real trouble picking just who to target here, but I’ll fill you in on my thoughts. (You may want to read my overall strategy reasonings before continuing).

Best cheap rookies:

Ivan Maric ($134k): Maric looked ok last year when he played a few games for Adelaide, and with Bhiglands out, I reckon he’s pretty certain to overtake Jon Griffin and become the second ruckman. However, in terms of value for money, I’m not sure he’s worth this much…

Matthew Leuenberger ($107k): Number four draft pick last year, and although young ruckman generally take time, word on the street is that Loonie could get a run this year. If that happens, his price will rise – he’s a possession-winning ruckman, like Dean Cox. But 107 is a fair bit to fork out for a guy who is far from a certainty to play

John Meesen ($82k): The risk here is that Meesen is behind Hudson and Maric in the Crows’ pecking order (boom boom), and after suffering a serious knee injury pre-season, may be behind Griffin as well. However, he’s solidly built, very talented, and a reasonable stat winner for a ruckman. On the other hand, he’s got very little history of good form in the SANFL. So in summary – he’s cheap, but a big risk

Aisake O’hAilpin ($69k): Now, now, calm down and here me out. I know Aisake isn’t even on a senior list yet, but Pagan loves him and he’s been in good form in the VFL. I reckon the Blues see him playing ruck for a few years to come, and I reckon they’ll take the chance to give him serious gametime this year. It doesn’t hurt that Cain Ackland is in such pathetic form at the moment (and they resorted to a young, skinny Josh Kennedy in the ruck last weekend against
Adelaide). Bring on the Irishman!

Best upgrade targets:

Dean Cox ($347k): Here’s where it gets interesting. Cox is in my opinion clearly the most reliable ruckman in Dream Team, capable of consistent big scores. But he’s injured, and having that amount of money on the bench every second week is a recipe for disaster. Worth seeing how he’s going with the injury before picking him

Jeff White ($350k): White has been a star for the Demons so far this year. However, he has a history of injuries, too, and after being burnt a couple of years ago I’m reluctant to jump on board

Josh Fraser ($363k): In form at the moment, and this won’t last for the whole season. Could be a good scorer, but be aware it won’t stay at this level forever

Brendan Lade ($292k): Certain bet to rise in price, but will he score enough to make it worthwhile? I’m not in it for value increases, I want the best scorer I can get. Not sure if Lade is my man this year, even though Brogan’s injuries have cemented his gametime

Hamish McIntosh ($298k): Wish I had him at the start of the year, but I reckon he’ll run out of steam as the year rolls on. No thanks

Jamie Charman ($256k): I really rate this bloke, but he’s having a shocker so far. See analysis for Lade

David Hille ($274k): Another who’s certain to rise in price, but for some reason I like Hille as a reliable scoring option. The Dons always give him gametime, (although if Laycock can get fit and firing his matchtime will fall), and he’s a goalkicker. The Laycock question is one that I’m not willing to risk, though

Well, there we have it. No real definitive answers from me. However, if I have to nominate my verdict, I reckon I’ll go with Cox, and if he’s hurt I’ll go with Fraser

You may want to read my overall strategy reasoning before continuing.

Best cheap rookies:

David Armitage ($89k): Very highly rated at the Saints, and encouragingly, rotated through the midfield in his first game last week. Lenny Hayes’ return doesn’t augur well for his game time, but then again, Leigh Montagna broke his jaw. If another Saint midfielder goes down with injury, get on him as fast as you can.

Beau Muston ($82k): The Hawks really rate this one. He was in the mix before round one, (before Ellis got the nod ahead of him) and since then hasn’t played. He’ll no doubt get a run this year, (youth policy), and he’s a reasonable chance to keep his spot. As a free-running flanker, loves the uncontested stats.

Mitch Morton ($117k): Classy, classy player. I don’t know how the Eagles keep coming up with them. Make no mistake – Morton is destined for big things, and I reckon West Coast will find room for him very soon. Played his first game for the year two weeks ago, after injuring a knee in the pre-season.

Travis Boak ($103k): Top-five pick last year, obviously, and has been in solid form in the SANFL. I have no doubt Port will give him a crack this year.

Bryce Campbell ($82k): With all the hype around Froggy Davey (I mean Alwyn) this year, Campbell could have been just as good a Dream Team recruit early on. He’s a mature-age first-year player, like Davey, but has been injured until now. Pity, because if he’d got a run it would probably have worked out well. He’s an inside midfielder, Sam Mitchell-style, and I assume is pretty prolific when it comes to stats.

Best upgrade options:

(These first few are the more expensive top-shelf players. The latter bunch are cheaper, more speculative upgrade targets).

Chris Judd ($396k): Gun. I reckon he’s the most consistent Dream Teamer there is. Worth getting.

Kane Cornes ($386k): Should drop this week, but not much. Loves the possessions, and a proven DT star. Not much risk here either.

Cameron Bruce ($375k): Will benefit from Brock McLean’s return to Melbourne, and slightly cheaper than he’s worth right now. Excellent choice.

Sam Mitchell ($380k): In better form than ever for the Hawks, racking up the numbers and pushing himself every week. Wants to be the next Hawks captain.

Simon Goodwin ($337k): Without doubt the cheapest of the in-form midfielders, after some shockers earlier this season including one score of just 4. That’s all in the past, his injury concerns are gone, and he’s ready to fire up. Very smart choice, this one.

Andrew Carrazzo ($344k): Wondering how much more Carrazzo could go up; not much, I reckon. However, he’s playing wonderful football and scoring very well. Not a popular choice, which helps distinguish your team. But make no mistake – we’re in the ‘speculative’ stage of proceedings now.

Steven Salopek ($291k): Like Kane Cornes, loves to get the ball, and is having a poor start to the year. Hasn’t got a lot of publicity, so a rather sly choice. Set to go up.

Shaun Burgoyne ($282k): Will go down in price this week, so ‘wait there’ for a bit. Nevertheless, has had a run of shockers, and his value is approaching the lowest it will ever be. I reckon he’ll get back into top form, although he’ll be rather inconsistent, as the year goes on. Excellent value for money.

Adam Goodes ($257k): Going to rise in price, so this is the week. However, even with a significant rise, will still be as cheap as all buggery. But I wouldn’t recommend Goodes, I’m a bit too worried about the bad form, which I reckon will last for a while yet.

Daniel Kerr ($296k): Now that he’s suspended, you can rest easy for two weeks, safe in the knowledge that while you sort out your backs and forwards, this brilliant opportunity to get Kerr for less than $300k will still exist. Don’t forget – this bloke was killing it earlier in the season. He’s had some bad weeks, some shockers, in a row, but don’t let that stop you.

Andrew Mackie ($301k): Unusual choice, I know. But Mackie has been a real play-maker for the Cats this season, running off half-back. If he can cement that position (and he’s a long way towards doing that, with very little fanfare) watch out. He’ll be a great Dream Team pickup. However, there are injury worries (he missed last week, and is in doubt for this week).

Best cheap rookies:

James Frawley ($82k): Classy player. Showed good form for the pre-season (as opposed to Petterd) and will benefit from Rivers recovering from injury. May not play every game, but is the best chance to do so from this lot.

Richard Cole ($112k): Sheeds loves this bloke. As an Essendon man, I am very relieved Collingwood picked him before we could in the 2001 ‘superdraft’ – he came two picks after Luke Molan. But I digress. Cole is talented enough to be in our best 22, and as such is a real bargain at that price. Lachlan Hansen (cough) is just 10 grand cheaper. Now, Cole has never been a big DT scorer, but he’s easily better than 112k. Will bounce in price after this week.

Andrejs Everitt ($82k): I know he’s young, and as skinny as a rake, but Everitt has been in excellent form in the VFL and if nothing else should get some ‘blooding’ games later this year. He’s a playmaker off half-back, so is capable of grabbing the stats.

Mitchell Thorp ($100k): Slightly higher price than other rookies, because of his high draft pick status. Trust me, the Hawks are privately in raptures about this bloke. Best of all, for us DTers, is that he’s actually a key forward as opposed to a dour defensive backman. God knows why they’ve put him in this category – but it could be to your benefit. Personally, I am going to get Thorp, but as a forward.

Nathan Brown (Collingwood) ($85k): Another early draft pick, who did play some senior games in the pre-season but hasn’t been seen or heard of since. However, his brother has shown something for West Coast, and Nathan was the more highly-rated of the twins.

Best upgrade options:

Two of the top three scoring backmen to date – Chad Cornes and Heath Shaw – will both fallll in price in coming weeks, so it’s worth waiting for that. Otherwise, consider these blokes:

Michael Johnson ($269k): Not much publicity due to missing the first five matches of the season, but Johnson is a chance to start racking up some bigger numbers if he jumps into the midfield. Keep a close eye on him.

When making your strategic mid-season moves, here’s some tips on what to look for.

Upgrading:

A very important choice. Just like Jimmy Bartel and Jordan Lewis exploded out of the box with some huge scores early in the season, a similar burst may see someone available at $350k be the next massive scorer.

You may also want to look at the cheaper guns who’ve fallen away in price, like Adam Goodes or Shaun Burgoyne, who are both well below the $300k mark. This frees up more cash for other upgrades, since these players have probably bottomed out in price.

But this tactic is fraught with risk; even if Goodes recovers to score around 80-odd, rising up to around $310k, it’s still not the output you need to really start blitzing it. I would only go down this road if you’ve got the trades in reserve for further upgrades, in case the performance doesn’t return to absolute elite levels.

Downgrading:

You might be tempted to chuck any old bargain-priced unknown in your team, freeing up some cash to buy a gun. But if you pick your rookies very slyly, it gives you some handy benefits:

They play regularly, and are a reliable back-up. The right rookies, (let’s face it, they’re usually top-20 draft picks), will slot straight into their side’s 22. This means they play most games, providing you with a ready-made inclusion to cover one- or two-week injuries.

They rise in price. Duh, I hear you say. Well, yeah, but if they rise enough and you’ve got the trades, you can do another upgrade in the last few weeks of the year. Converting a Travis Cloke to a Scott Lucas could be the difference between you winning and losing an all-important final.

Leave something for injuries:

Another no-brainer, but don’t use all your trades for upgrades! It’ll all go down the toilet if a couple of wrong turns hit your team and you end up playing three or four ‘donut’ players (= score 0) every week.

Gee writes:

Hey with 284900 to spend on a C, who is the better long term buy after round 7? Young (Haw), Murphy (car), Winderlich (Ess), Cooney (Wbd) or goodes (Syd)

First of all, I would not touch Adam Goodes. He is obviously struggling with injury, and the Swans’ strategy of playing its stars through injury is not paying off. Plus my co-host of the Coaches Box podcast, Molly, said in Episode #4 that Goodes had a poor year after his first Brownlow so there’s a trend happening.

I don’t like Adam Cooney as a fantasy player. In a position where you would expect scoring consistency, Cooney too often turns in a shocker, as he has for two of the past three weeks. When he’s good he’s very very good, but when he’s bad he’s rotten, as the saying goes. You can find players who will give you much less grief.

Marc Murphy managed to rescue his scoring this week to a respectable 97, but two 60-or-lesses in the past month just doesn’t cut it. His role in the Blues midfield is too important, and there aren’t enough good mids around him to take the tagging pressure off him. He’s going to hold his value but not much else.

The last two, Clinton Young and Jason Winderlich, have had similar seasons: a jump in fantasy production over last year then a short-term injury which hurt their scoring for a week, but they have both bounced back strong from those setbacks and look to be excellent value for the rest of the season. Either of those two would be a great pickup. Personally I prefer the Hawk but then again, I’m biased.

the vanberlo monologues (nice name mate!) from BigFooty writes:

Monty, as the respected runner of fanfooty.com i value your opinion. I posted this on the forums but i didn’t get any decent replys. The question is, is lockyer or fletcher better to get considering the 10 point difference in average and the 50,000 difference in price?

A loyal fan, gilbee

Okay, so you’re trying to choose between two players who have stepped up markedly this year. Tarkyn Lockyer is on $385,600 and averaging 107.5, while Dustin Fletcher is priced at $339,000 with an average of 97.8.

You probably can’t go wrong with either player, but I think Fletcher is a little better value for money. Fletcher’s breakeven score this week is 57 compared to Lockyer’s 80, and the FFGenie program rates Lockyer’s “real price” (based on his 2007 scoring) as only $11k more than his actual price, while Fletcher still has $21k to make up. Outside of the raw numbers, you have to worry a bit more about Fletcher’s aging body, but then again you also have to worry a bit about Collingwood dropping away after the April/May period, which they did last year and is a bit of a long-term trend for them.

I’d give it to Fletcher by a long nose. Spend that extra $50,000 on upgrading your rookies, that’s my advice.

Jase84 writes:

Hey guys, I have a total of 13 trades left for the season. I want to know whether or nor I should keep Marc Murphy or get rid of him. Money isn’t really an issue with plenty of cash cows.

Marc Murphy should be the least of your problems. He is averaging 79, which is about what he averaged last year. His price did go down this week but it is $700 up for the year, which in DT terms means it’s pretty much flat.

You may be thinking that that is not good enough, but you have 30 positions on your roster and only 20 trades, so that means that you need a large number of players to be completely dependable every week. All fantasy sides need at least a handful of players who might not have the potential to be superstars, but they can be relied upon to put in 22 solid games. Murphy is one of these: a set-and-forget type of player. Keep him in your lineup and forget about him… worry about your other positions.

crow87 from the BigFooty forums writes:

This week I’m looking at J. Brown, he has more than likely bottomed out in price and I need to get rid of N. Brown from Richmond (I’m over it lol). I’m also looking at Simon Black for Luke Power, which I’m a little surer on but do you think Black is worth getting rid of? He scores 80s-90s but never really hits great heights, even with his 39 disposal game rnd1.
I’m considering Brad Johnson instead of Brown but this would be next week as I think he will drop this week. I would really like BJ, perhaps more than Brown but both would obviously be nice. Price is not an issue.
Also, Gilbee for Raines or Mattner?
After these 4 trades I will settle for a long time bar any long-term injuries.
Thanks heaps

I would certainly trade out Nathan G. Brown. I admire your stamina at holding onto him for this long, crow87, but he’s not worth keeping. As for whether Jonathan Brown is worth picking up, I don’t think so. Too many teams have correctly identified that there’s nobody else worth matching up on in the Lions forward line now that Daniel Bradshaw is gone for the season, so the Browndog is having to contend with two, three or sometimes four defenders at every contest. His scores had also been flattened out at the start of the season due to Brown’s slow recovery from previous injury, but even if he’s 100%, he’s not going to dominate like he used to when the Lions were winning premierships. Brad Johnson is a far better prospect: he shares a forward line with viable options like Robert Murphy, Luke Darcy, Shaun Higgins and Matthew Robbins, all of whom draw defenders away to leave BJ one-on-one with the fullback.

Simon Black is quality, and I’ve heard in a couple of places that Luke Power’s role has changed this year at the Lions to less of an on-ball role so I’d lay off him. Sideways trades like that are a waste of a trade anyway, in my opinion.

As for Lindsay Gilbee, I am amazed that I’m the only EliteDre@mTe@mer with him, he was one of the first picked in my team this year. Andrew Raines was also in my 22 at the start of the year but that was a mistake since he’s not a reliable fantasy player. If you can upgrade Raines or Martin Mattner to Gilbee, pull the trigger now.

A fan writes:

Hey mate, great site

Im wondering if i could have your advice on a trade i need to make?

With Nick Stevens injury i am looking for constitant 90+ Dream teamer. I have narrowed my options down to Daniel Kerr or Paul Hasleby. Considering if i choose Hasleby i wil have 109 grand in the bank while with Kerr i only have 79 grand.

Which player would you consider the best or is there someone else im overlooking?

Cheers

Paul Hasleby has spent the last two years sucking for fantasy purposes. Yes, I know he has been struggling with injury, and yes, I know that he has enjoyed his first uninterrupted preseason since his years averaging 90+. I still can’t trust him to carve it up, especially compared to a proven star like Daniel Kerr. Kerr has been the main beneficiary of the absence of Ben Cousins this year in fantasy pointscoring terms, and he’s far more reliable than Hasleby. I have heard it said that Hasleby scores more than usual when Fremantle is losing, though I don’t have firm figures on that. I don’t think Freo is going to lose a whole lot more this season, so take the Haze at your peril.

For around about Nick Stevens‘ price, I’d also look at Andrew Carrazzo, Steven Salopek, Adam Simpson and Jordan Lewis.

Every so often when someone emails me for advice - email m0nty aaat fanfooty dooot com dooot au (that’s m0nty with a zero instead of an o) - I’ll post my opinion for all to see. Today, the_insid3r writes:

hi mate

I’m wondering if I could have your opinion please?

I have $342k in the bank and I need a “gun” defender.
I am looking at players like McLeod, Carrazzo or Jacobs. They all avg roughly around the 95-100 DT point per game.

Which player would you consider to be the best option?

thanks for your input. Greatly appreciated

A lot of backs at the top end of your price range are worth the money: Andrew McLeod, Adam McPhee, Lindsay Gilbee, Andrew Carrazzo and Tarkyn Lockyer are all backing up their price tag. Of those, I would go youth every time so that puts McLeod and Lockyer out. Either Carrots or McPhee would be excellent. I’d be wary of Danny Jacobs, his form has been highly erratic so I’d hold off on him.

If you want to take more of a chance, you could try Joel Bowden, if you think his worst weeks are behind him, or punt on whether Tadgh Kennelly can back up his early form. And of course, if you haven’t got Jed Adcock or Nathan Bock, you need to get on those trains before they’ve left the station entirely.