I’ve already launched this on the latest edition of the Coaches Box podcast yesterday, but I should let readers of the FanFooty blog know about it as well.

Each AFL player is classified by Champion Data (official stat providers to the AFL) in the 2008 AFL Prospectus according to their position, their size and their role. For instance, Brett Burton is a medium-sized general forward, which means his classification is Fwd-Med-Gen. Similarly, Sam Mitchell is a small inside midfielder, giving him the designation of Mid-Small-In, and Sam Fisher is a tall key-position defender, meaning he has the code of Def-Tall-Key.

The Breakdown - there is a Dream Team Breakdown and a Super Coach Breakdown - is a table that lists the averages of each Champion Data player type against each AFL team in 2008, along with how many players have played against that team of that designation, with links to drill down on each score from each player against each opponent. The cells in the table are colour-coded according to their ranking: the lowest team average is coloured red, the second- to fourth-lowest are light red, the second- to fourth-highest are light green and the highest is solid green.

Those who are long-time listeners of the Coaches Box know that this kind of table made its public debut on the Round 22 episode last year, when we had Statsman74 on the show. Among the numerous spreadsheet screenshots he shared with us were two labeled DT scores by player positions and types - Part 1 and DT scores by player positions and types - Part 2, which are pretty much what you see in the Breakdown. Unlike those spreadsheets, however, the Breakdown includes links to the full list of players of each position who have already played against that opponent in 2008, as well as a list of this week’s relevant players.

The Breakdown is a powerful tool for helping to pick captains and figuring out which players are worth selling due to their rollercoaster coming to an end… or not. For instance, Dean Cox traditionally has a day out against the Swans, but even he struggled in the reverse fixture earlier in the year, and no ruckman has scored over 86 against Sydney all year so it might be time to take the captain’s armband off him this week. As we said in the podcast, it’s also an indicator that this week is not the time to sell Cyril Rioli because small forwards tend to carve up the Dons. It should also prove useful for those participating in the Lethal League or Premium DT competitions who are looking to pick up new players for a week or two of service: Michael Gardiner against the Bulldogs has a great matchup, as do small Kangaroo defenders like Gavin Urquhart and Ed Lower.

Enjoy!

Richmond’s team is out, and you guessed it, no Joel Bowden.

B: King, Thursfield, Moore
HB: Hyde, Schulz, McMahon
C: Richardson, Tuck, Deledio
HF: Newman, Pattison, White
F: Brown, Riewoldt, Polak
Foll: Simmonds, Johnson, Foley
I/C: Tambling, Morton, Edwards, McGuane
Emergencies: Jackson, Cotchin, Pettifer

I’m on record on last night’s Coaches Box episode as recommending Jake King for all your Bowden replacement needs. With J-Bo not even making the emergencies this week, and with Chad Cornes out for at least another two games, I think it’s time to cut your losses if you are still hanging onto him. Tell me if I’m right in the comments.

Long-term injuries to your players in round 1 really suck. Scott Lucas in particular is a hard luck story for the fantasy coaches who bought him, since his injury history is nearly spotless. Sean Rusling has a history of shoulder injuries, and at least Brent Reilly played out the game for a decent score.

Rusling is probably the easiest to replace. Three other forwards returning from major injury showed that they can deliver solid scoring this year: Stuart Dew, Daniel Bradshaw and Nathan Thompson. Assuming you don’t have all three of them already… in which case you probably don’t need my help!… load up on one of these proven performers for around the same or less price than Rusling depending on the competition.

Reilly was reasonably expensive to begin with, so you’ve got a lot of options in the centres to replace him. I like Marc Murphy at just under the same DT price. Chance Bateman would be a distinctive player if you got him. Looking at around the $200,000 mark in DT, Lindsay Thomas, Bachar Houli and Richard Douglas all had good round 1 starts, though I rate Houli higher than the other two. Also, don’t forget Kieran Jack - if he can deliver on the notoriously fantasy-unfriendly SCG this week, he should be a primary trade target for every fantasy coach.

Lucas is where the pain really starts to bite. He’s priced just under the top tier of fantasy forwards, so you probably can’t upgrade him to a Brad Johnson type without making a second trade in week 1 - and you should try to avoid that if possible. Most of the hyped up mid-price forwards failed to fire in week 1. Much of the discussion about a single sideways trade has centred on Matthew Lloyd, but I am always wary about full forwards, especially in DT. I would also be suspicious of Brett Burton’s DT ton, coming as it did in a high-possession goalfest where the Birdman was gifted a couple of goals. The Crows aren’t likely to get beaten 19 goals to 18 again this season, they’ll no doubt go back to the Wall strategy this week against the Eagles and Burton won’t get nearly as much opportunity. Meanwhile, Ryan O’Keefe seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy this season in most of the teams I’ve seen but after his decent score against the Saints in a terribly crowded lockdown environment I think he deserves serious consideration to be the #1 replacement target for Lucas.

One strategy I would offer up for consideration, especially for Lucas, is to sub in one of your bench rookies this week in place of your LTI player, to give you another week to assess the replacement market. Rioli and Tippett have shown that they can produce decent scores, so you’d only lose 20-40 points in making a decision that could end up costing you hundreds… or making you hundreds!

If there is one piece of advice I would give this week for those of you thinking about trading it is this: don’t. Well, unless you are forced into it by long-term injury, as is the case if you have Scott Lucas, Brent Reilly or Sean Rusling. Commiserations if so. In particular, give these players a week more:

Brett Deledio: I always thought Lids was a much better SC prospect than DT this year, and his scores in round 1 reflect that. If you do have him in DT don’t despair, as he remains a quality player. The Tigers were too Richo-conscious on Thursday and they will adjust to bring smaller forwards like Deledio into the game.

Bryce Gibbs: I have him in both my DT and SC sides and I’m giving him another week at least… but he’s on notice! Gibbs tagged Foley in the middle all night, which is an improvement over the back pocket role he got last year, but still not his ideal role of outside receiver. It’s a worry that Nick Stevens and Chris Judd seem to be looked at far more than any other Carlton midfielder for handball and kick receives, with Judd especially being the first go-to man. If Gibbs can’t manage at least 60 this week against the Saints he’s out of my teams.

Jason Gram: he’s not going to get a hard tag from a ferocious Swans stopper every week. He’ll be right, especially when Brendon Goddard returns from injury to free him up - Goddard has been playing well for Casey Scorpions so he’s not far away.

Adam Goodes: media speculation, fueled by coach Paul Roos, has Goodes possibly tagging Kane Cornes this week, something which kickstarted his season last year. Even if that doesn’t quite wake him up, do not trade him. He will come home like a train as he always does, you just have to hope that his fires get stoked up earlier rather than later.

Craig Bird: Roos inexplicably used him as a forward pocket, which is rather like using Tiger Woods as a bunker scraper. Roos has said that he’ll keep playing the kids next week, so at least wait and see if the coach pulls the finger out and sticks Bird in the guts where he belongs.

Brad Symes: 6 frees against was a very poor result, especially in SC. Apart from his first quarter against the Dogs where he scored -2 in DT, his numbers weren’t actually that bad. Hold the line and see if his scores settle down.

Brent Stanton: Matthew Knights’ first coaching display included a lot of skulduggery around Stanton. Rawlings went to Stanton as tagger before the opening bounce, and Knights promptly brought him off to try to break it, hoping that Rawlings would shift onto Watson. Dean Laidley was stubborn, and kept Rawlings off for as long as Stanton was off. Knights blinked first, and by the time Stanton got on the field Watson was in full cry and Stanton couldn’t pick up the pace of the game. All this ducks and drakes was entertaining for the football purists, and I suppose you could say Knights won the chess battle because he came away with the four points, but that little lesson wouldn’t have escaped him. Rest assured Stanton won’t be warming the pine at the start of next week’s game against Geelong.

The Adelaide Crows press conference this afternoon was not about Mark Ricciuto’s retirement after all. It was to announce that Ben Hudson, Darren Pfeiffer and Bernie Vince have been given one week club suspensions for being out past curfew following Andrew McLeod’s 31st birthday celebrations. Vince and Pfeiffer missed curfew by 20 minutes and Hudson missed by an hour.

Fantasy coaches couldn’t give two hoots for Pfeiffer or Vince, but Hudson has been a major anchor of thousands of teams. He was still in 39,197 Dream Teams and 15,420 Super Coach teams as of this week. Along with the news that Brad Johnson might miss this week with hamstring tightness, Scott Lucas is still fighting off the effects of the soreness that affected his game against the Hawks, and Paul Chapman is no certainty for this week either, the Hudson news will strike fear into the hearts of fantasy coaches heading into finals.

If you have a trade left to spend on Hudson and you are desperate to burn it, two choices recommend themselves. At the high end, Brendon Lade has scored consecutive tons and his partner in ruck Dean Brogan is out for 1-2 weeks more with back spasms. Blade ALWAYS scores well without Brogan in the side. At the low end, Wayde Skipper has had two excellent scores in a row and is dirt cheap. Can you see any other bargains out there?

There’s every chance that Nathan G Brown will be back in action for Richmond pretty soon. Now, I had him in my squad pre-season, and I swapped him out the day before round 1 like many others. For his talent, he’s a bargain at $236k, but I don’t reckon he’s worth drafting in.

Even if he does play regularly, and scores very well (I reckon 75 average is the best you can hope for), I still don’t think it’s worth it. Here’s why.

At this point in the year, I don’t like to ‘downgrade’ to players who will start in my 22. I flog off the bench players for rookies, to free up cash, but there’s no way I’ll recruit someone like Brown to start in the team. I will upgrade players in Brown’s price range for a gun, but I won’t swap them for someone of Brown’s price.

For example, I’m ditching Nathan Bock this week. I’ve had it. He’s gawwwn. But I’m upgrading Bock to a gun; I wouldn’t swap him for someone cheap, because cheap is almost always unreliable. And unreliable uses up trades that could be necessary for injuries, or used constructively for upgrades.

Does that make sense? My objection to Brown is more ideological than practical - I don’t like recruiting players like him at this end of the year. Obviously, you take every case on its merits and at this point the injury concerns are over-riding all else. (Remember how he was all set to go in round 1?)

I hope he proves me wrong. I hope he comes out and starts tearing some shit up, and then everyone will recruit him into their teams and no-one will benefit because everyone has him.

(You may want to read the overall strategy reasoning before continuing)

High up in the thinking is Nathan G Brown, who’s retailing at $236k. An in-form Brown is a bargain at that price, but with sooo many injury worries, is it worth the risk? Of course, we’ll come back to this question if and when he plays. But when planning your forward-line strategy, don’t forget about Browny.

Best cheap rookies:

Fergus Watts ($94k): Given this bloke’s history of injuries, and St Kilda’s run of outs in that respect so far this season, you’d be forgiven for trying to avoid Watts. He broke his ankle after playing one game last season, and has had further worries this season. Nevertheless, is a talented key forward and likely to play this year; he’s a fourth-year player and thus has a mature body. There’s not a great deal else in the cheap forwards department, so in my opinion Watts is the best bet.

Mitch Morton ($118k): Get him this week, because he’s going to shoot up to around $150k after this week’s games. A very skilled player, and a good bet to break into the Eagles’ best 22, particularly with Mark Nicoski recovering from a shoulder injury.

Jack Riewoldt ($82k): Not sure why Jack hasn’t got a run so far this year, but he’s in there now. Didn’t do anything in his first game, but has enough experience at VFL level to reasonably expect he’ll make a go of it early on in the big league. Added to that is Richmond’s youth policy. Hopefully, Jack gets a run.

Beau Dowler ($82k): This is the bloke who was chosen before Paddy Ryder for the Hawks. He’s still feeling the effects of a pelvis injury sustained just before he was drafted, but played some games last year and should do so before the year’s end too. Not a guaranteed huge scorer, but a handy bet to get some games.

Chris Scott ($111k): Watch this one carefully. Scott is still recovering from a massive hip injury, but the Lions have got him on the list for a reason. If he’s fit, he’ll play – and if he plays, he’ll score ok. As yet, there’s no mention of him returning, but it’s one to keep your eye out for. IF he plays, that price is a bargain.

Leroy Jetta ($100k): Bit of a dark horse, and not the most reliable of choices. Small forwards rarely are – they’re inconsistent, and don’t pick up many stats. However, Jetta has already played this year, and when he recovers from a groin injury should get another run in the seniors.

Best upgrade targets:

Brad Johnson ($363k): Trust me, this is a great price for Johnson. He’s a champion Dream Teamer, who tends to play up the ground if the goals aren’t flowing, thus ensuring a good score no matter what the situation.

Matthew Pavlich ($310k): After some slow games, Pavlich is back to a rock-bottom price for a guy of his capacity. He’ll start to fire up as the Dockers regain their form, and is a great pickup at this price.

Barry Hall ($304k): Another who, like Pavlich, is simply at a rock-bottom price and shouldn’t be discounted.

Alan Didak ($280k): After scoring 80 in his first game back from injury, Didak has dropped off the pace somewhat. However, he’s a good bargain at that price, and should return to top flight (and good scores) later this season. Handy swap for a Franklin or Cloke, too, if that’s something you’re considering.

Ryan O’Keefe ($308k): Yet another rock-bottom priced forward. O’Keefe has slipped away from last year’s great form, but is worth considering as the Swans start to hop back into gear and improving their possession rates.

Jason Akermanis ($265k): Another cheapie. Aker is not the gun he once was, but he’s worth far more than this price. He’s inconsistent, but when he scores, he scores big time. Consider taking a chance - it could be the x-factor that gets you over the line in one or two matches.

Pretty much everyone on BigFooty knew that Ben Hudson was a must-have player this year, and there were a couple of other cheapies who’ve since risen to a more appropriate price. So, the time is right to upgrade to a ‘premium’ ruck – but who? Last year’s All-Australian ruckman is under $300k after a bad start to the year, and there are others more expensive with question marks hanging over their heads. I’m having real trouble picking just who to target here, but I’ll fill you in on my thoughts. (You may want to read my overall strategy reasonings before continuing).

Best cheap rookies:

Ivan Maric ($134k): Maric looked ok last year when he played a few games for Adelaide, and with Bhiglands out, I reckon he’s pretty certain to overtake Jon Griffin and become the second ruckman. However, in terms of value for money, I’m not sure he’s worth this much…

Matthew Leuenberger ($107k): Number four draft pick last year, and although young ruckman generally take time, word on the street is that Loonie could get a run this year. If that happens, his price will rise – he’s a possession-winning ruckman, like Dean Cox. But 107 is a fair bit to fork out for a guy who is far from a certainty to play

John Meesen ($82k): The risk here is that Meesen is behind Hudson and Maric in the Crows’ pecking order (boom boom), and after suffering a serious knee injury pre-season, may be behind Griffin as well. However, he’s solidly built, very talented, and a reasonable stat winner for a ruckman. On the other hand, he’s got very little history of good form in the SANFL. So in summary – he’s cheap, but a big risk

Aisake O’hAilpin ($69k): Now, now, calm down and here me out. I know Aisake isn’t even on a senior list yet, but Pagan loves him and he’s been in good form in the VFL. I reckon the Blues see him playing ruck for a few years to come, and I reckon they’ll take the chance to give him serious gametime this year. It doesn’t hurt that Cain Ackland is in such pathetic form at the moment (and they resorted to a young, skinny Josh Kennedy in the ruck last weekend against
Adelaide). Bring on the Irishman!

Best upgrade targets:

Dean Cox ($347k): Here’s where it gets interesting. Cox is in my opinion clearly the most reliable ruckman in Dream Team, capable of consistent big scores. But he’s injured, and having that amount of money on the bench every second week is a recipe for disaster. Worth seeing how he’s going with the injury before picking him

Jeff White ($350k): White has been a star for the Demons so far this year. However, he has a history of injuries, too, and after being burnt a couple of years ago I’m reluctant to jump on board

Josh Fraser ($363k): In form at the moment, and this won’t last for the whole season. Could be a good scorer, but be aware it won’t stay at this level forever

Brendan Lade ($292k): Certain bet to rise in price, but will he score enough to make it worthwhile? I’m not in it for value increases, I want the best scorer I can get. Not sure if Lade is my man this year, even though Brogan’s injuries have cemented his gametime

Hamish McIntosh ($298k): Wish I had him at the start of the year, but I reckon he’ll run out of steam as the year rolls on. No thanks

Jamie Charman ($256k): I really rate this bloke, but he’s having a shocker so far. See analysis for Lade

David Hille ($274k): Another who’s certain to rise in price, but for some reason I like Hille as a reliable scoring option. The Dons always give him gametime, (although if Laycock can get fit and firing his matchtime will fall), and he’s a goalkicker. The Laycock question is one that I’m not willing to risk, though

Well, there we have it. No real definitive answers from me. However, if I have to nominate my verdict, I reckon I’ll go with Cox, and if he’s hurt I’ll go with Fraser

You may want to read my overall strategy reasoning before continuing.

Best cheap rookies:

David Armitage ($89k): Very highly rated at the Saints, and encouragingly, rotated through the midfield in his first game last week. Lenny Hayes’ return doesn’t augur well for his game time, but then again, Leigh Montagna broke his jaw. If another Saint midfielder goes down with injury, get on him as fast as you can.

Beau Muston ($82k): The Hawks really rate this one. He was in the mix before round one, (before Ellis got the nod ahead of him) and since then hasn’t played. He’ll no doubt get a run this year, (youth policy), and he’s a reasonable chance to keep his spot. As a free-running flanker, loves the uncontested stats.

Mitch Morton ($117k): Classy, classy player. I don’t know how the Eagles keep coming up with them. Make no mistake – Morton is destined for big things, and I reckon West Coast will find room for him very soon. Played his first game for the year two weeks ago, after injuring a knee in the pre-season.

Travis Boak ($103k): Top-five pick last year, obviously, and has been in solid form in the SANFL. I have no doubt Port will give him a crack this year.

Bryce Campbell ($82k): With all the hype around Froggy Davey (I mean Alwyn) this year, Campbell could have been just as good a Dream Team recruit early on. He’s a mature-age first-year player, like Davey, but has been injured until now. Pity, because if he’d got a run it would probably have worked out well. He’s an inside midfielder, Sam Mitchell-style, and I assume is pretty prolific when it comes to stats.

Best upgrade options:

(These first few are the more expensive top-shelf players. The latter bunch are cheaper, more speculative upgrade targets).

Chris Judd ($396k): Gun. I reckon he’s the most consistent Dream Teamer there is. Worth getting.

Kane Cornes ($386k): Should drop this week, but not much. Loves the possessions, and a proven DT star. Not much risk here either.

Cameron Bruce ($375k): Will benefit from Brock McLean’s return to Melbourne, and slightly cheaper than he’s worth right now. Excellent choice.

Sam Mitchell ($380k): In better form than ever for the Hawks, racking up the numbers and pushing himself every week. Wants to be the next Hawks captain.

Simon Goodwin ($337k): Without doubt the cheapest of the in-form midfielders, after some shockers earlier this season including one score of just 4. That’s all in the past, his injury concerns are gone, and he’s ready to fire up. Very smart choice, this one.

Andrew Carrazzo ($344k): Wondering how much more Carrazzo could go up; not much, I reckon. However, he’s playing wonderful football and scoring very well. Not a popular choice, which helps distinguish your team. But make no mistake – we’re in the ‘speculative’ stage of proceedings now.

Steven Salopek ($291k): Like Kane Cornes, loves to get the ball, and is having a poor start to the year. Hasn’t got a lot of publicity, so a rather sly choice. Set to go up.

Shaun Burgoyne ($282k): Will go down in price this week, so ‘wait there’ for a bit. Nevertheless, has had a run of shockers, and his value is approaching the lowest it will ever be. I reckon he’ll get back into top form, although he’ll be rather inconsistent, as the year goes on. Excellent value for money.

Adam Goodes ($257k): Going to rise in price, so this is the week. However, even with a significant rise, will still be as cheap as all buggery. But I wouldn’t recommend Goodes, I’m a bit too worried about the bad form, which I reckon will last for a while yet.

Daniel Kerr ($296k): Now that he’s suspended, you can rest easy for two weeks, safe in the knowledge that while you sort out your backs and forwards, this brilliant opportunity to get Kerr for less than $300k will still exist. Don’t forget – this bloke was killing it earlier in the season. He’s had some bad weeks, some shockers, in a row, but don’t let that stop you.

Andrew Mackie ($301k): Unusual choice, I know. But Mackie has been a real play-maker for the Cats this season, running off half-back. If he can cement that position (and he’s a long way towards doing that, with very little fanfare) watch out. He’ll be a great Dream Team pickup. However, there are injury worries (he missed last week, and is in doubt for this week).

Best cheap rookies:

James Frawley ($82k): Classy player. Showed good form for the pre-season (as opposed to Petterd) and will benefit from Rivers recovering from injury. May not play every game, but is the best chance to do so from this lot.

Richard Cole ($112k): Sheeds loves this bloke. As an Essendon man, I am very relieved Collingwood picked him before we could in the 2001 ‘superdraft’ – he came two picks after Luke Molan. But I digress. Cole is talented enough to be in our best 22, and as such is a real bargain at that price. Lachlan Hansen (cough) is just 10 grand cheaper. Now, Cole has never been a big DT scorer, but he’s easily better than 112k. Will bounce in price after this week.

Andrejs Everitt ($82k): I know he’s young, and as skinny as a rake, but Everitt has been in excellent form in the VFL and if nothing else should get some ‘blooding’ games later this year. He’s a playmaker off half-back, so is capable of grabbing the stats.

Mitchell Thorp ($100k): Slightly higher price than other rookies, because of his high draft pick status. Trust me, the Hawks are privately in raptures about this bloke. Best of all, for us DTers, is that he’s actually a key forward as opposed to a dour defensive backman. God knows why they’ve put him in this category – but it could be to your benefit. Personally, I am going to get Thorp, but as a forward.

Nathan Brown (Collingwood) ($85k): Another early draft pick, who did play some senior games in the pre-season but hasn’t been seen or heard of since. However, his brother has shown something for West Coast, and Nathan was the more highly-rated of the twins.

Best upgrade options:

Two of the top three scoring backmen to date – Chad Cornes and Heath Shaw – will both fallll in price in coming weeks, so it’s worth waiting for that. Otherwise, consider these blokes:

Michael Johnson ($269k): Not much publicity due to missing the first five matches of the season, but Johnson is a chance to start racking up some bigger numbers if he jumps into the midfield. Keep a close eye on him.