Hawthorn’s Carl Peterson is one of the rookies worth selling this week, with a few fantasy premiums at tasty prices to replace him. (more…)

Some of the best premium fantasy forwards in the game are at a temptingly low price point this week. (more…)

Those looking to trade Hayden Skipworth this week could do worse than the reigning Coleman Medalist. (more…)

Wondering how long you’ll have to keep Gumby or Forkie? Here’s some analysis to help your scheming. (more…)

A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

I said last week that you might want to wait until round 12 to get on Andrew McLeod, but with breakevens of 105 in DT and 125 in SC, this week might not be so bad either. Scores of 57/69 this week with Angus Monfries tagging him in the game against Essendon were at least somewhat of a recovery after the two shockers in the previous fortnight. It is a worry that he gets tagged every week, but this week the Crows play the Tigers who are without their primary tagger Kane Johnson. If you think Chris Hyde will get the job on McLeod then you’ll understand why I’m hot on him this week, especially in Super Coach: Hyde’s last three targets have been Gary Ablett jnr (135/164), Brent Stanton (64/92) and Adam Goodes (96/142). Expect McLeod to blow through his breakevens as the Crows spank another minnow team in their dream 2008 draw. The only fly in the ointment is that Adelaide’s draw gets considerably harder after Richmond with pretty much every top 8 side in a row… but I only ever considered McLeod a Super Coach prospect and he still should do well in that competition despite what seems to be a weekly tag.

Also last week, I recommended waiting another week on Nick Riewoldt. His price dropped again in all competitions after a 108/138 but his breakevens are down into the 60s this week. Don’t expect huge things out of him this week because the Bulldogs haven’t given up a DT ton to a KP forward this year, but he should be solid for 80-90 at least from here on in.

Coming off an unprecedented two years of 105+ averages in Dream Team, plus lifting his Super Coach average to 112 last year, Kane Cornes was targeted by many coaches as a mid-season upgrade target. The smart thing to do was to wait for the two scores from his Sydney games to cycle through - not surprisingly, his two lowest scores for the year - and that process is almost complete. With breakevens of 123/97 and year-to-date price drops of $69,500/$166,100 the time to do that trade is probably next week, after playing a Carlton side that has been surprisingly effective at dampening the scores of opposing midfielders in 2008… albeit he’s averaging 106 in his last four against the Blues.

Adam McPhee has been very disappointing so far given his top 10 finish in the backs last year, but his role in the Adelaide game has raised some questions about a possible exhumation of his fantasy value. Far from the return of Scott Lucas further hurting his value with less space in the forward line, it has actually led to him moving further up the ground and getting more link-up work. 12 kicks, four handpasses, 12 marks and three goals straight is a highly respectable return. Having dropped $104,000/$139,800 from his starting price and with breakevens of 57/32, he makes a sneaky upgrade target with considerable risk and considerable upside.

Loop De Loop

Austin Wonaeamirri, come back! Where has that goalsneak dynamo with the fistpump action gone? I know it’s a compliment when you’re in your first 10 games and the opposition coach puts a stopper on you just because you’re so valuable to the team, as Ross Lyon did with Sean Dempster, but it destroyed Wona’s fantasy momentum if not his real game momentum. Scores of 42/37 inflated his breakeven back up to his trailing average, meaning that he’s going to need another big gamewinning performance to get this cash cow to start milking again. The only consolation is that his spot on the senior list is most likely safe since Russell Robertson’s ruptured achilles put him on the LTI list.

Cyril Rioli, too, is starting to dry up in the cash cow stakes. Breakevens in the 70s are the result of his 46/27 against the Dogs. I have a bit more faith in Junior Boy, however, because he was looking like he might have hit the rookie wall back in the Collingwood game in round 7, where only some garbage time charity from Shane Crawford saved his day from complete calamity, but he rebounded with good scores in the next two games. The other reason I’m not selling him this week is that his next opponent is the Bombers who are the worst team in defending against small forwards, with Mathew Stokes, Eddie Betts and Paul Medhurst getting 120+ DT scores against them this year already.

Briefly, other players who look to have hit their peaks and/or already be on the way down: Kieren Jack, Leigh Harding, Tim Callan, Bernie Vince, Clint Bartram, Bachar Houli, Kurt Tippett, Greg Baum.

A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

The last time I did this feature I recommended picking up Brad Johnson and was against Jonathan Brown . At the time, Brown was showing signs of the dreaded osteitis pubis, and he did actually miss that week’s AFL match. Since the all star game, however, Browndog has been off the leash, culminating in a huge fantasy ton against the Saints in round 9. With two more Gabba games coming up against sides he should dominate, you’d better get on board before the train leaves the station. Johnson has been serviceable too, so he’s worth relying on once again.

Nick Riewoldt, on the other hand, is much more of a worry. Three sub-70 DT scores in a row is out of character from him, even taking into consideration his injury worries. He’s getting knocked from pillar to post in the press for not tackling, which is a bit silly because he’s there to mark and kick goals… but he’s not doing much of that either. This week he’s got the Demons, and will probably have Colin Garland to deal with, who is fresh off a confidence-boosting performance against Lance Franklin. Melbourne will no doubt drop a bloke in front of Riewoldt like they did with Franklin, so expect Rooey’s scores to again be substandard. The bottom line is that you should wait another week or two if you’re gagging to pick him up.

Tarkyn Lockyer is coming off a 100+ averaging DT year in 2007, but with a shift to the half-forward line has come a big deflation of his fantasy relevance in ‘08. 122 against the Cats last Friday was a good sign, but his scoring has become way too inconsistent to bother tracking his rollercoaster ride.

Joel Bowden’s price is plummeting with every sub-90 score he posts, and but his breakeven is edging ever closer to his scores. This week his DT BE is 108 and in SC it’s 137, with J-Bo not having cracked the ton across five games in 2008. Another week or two and he will have flattened out, I think, making him a hot commodity for those who want to cash in Austin Wonaeamirri, Harry Taylor or Garrick Ibbotson.

Finally, Andrew McLeod has been tagged right out of the game for two weeks in a row, which has destroyed his price and exploded his breakevens. By round 12 when those scores have had the chance to cycle all the way through his price, he should be ready to be the last piece of your backline puzzle. That’s assuming that he bounces back this week, of course!

Loop De Loop

There is no question that Kurt Tippett and Ryan Gamble have topped out, and should be moved on if possible. The only possible counterpoint to that consensus notion is that Tippett has the Bombers this week and the Crows are on the rebound on the national stage of Friday night football, which may mean a goalfest from which Tippett could profit. His BEs are 80/96, so it would be a risk.

Tens of thousands of fantasy coaches have been relying on Troy Simmonds as their second ruck this season, but is it time to upgrade him? The late withdrawal of Jeff White last week with the suspicious-sounding “back soreness” puts a bit of a fly in the ointment insofar as figuring out who the second-best ruckman will be. I daresay most coaches will not want to even look at their rucks at the moment, but it’s worth noting that with Simmonds’ poor round 8 score of 35/37 still cycling through, his price isn’t going to get much higher. The situation is more pressing in SC, where Simmonds is the #13 ruck as opposed to #5 in DT, so if you’re targeting a Jolly, Sandilands, White or Fraser, now is a good time to pull the trigger.

Elsewhere, I’m hearing a lot of talk about how Cyril Rioli, Rhys Palmer and Garrick Ibbotson are keepers, but this seems premature to me at round 9. Even a rookie fantasy gun like Joel Selwood had to be replaced late last year through injury. First-year players usually find some way to drop out of the side from injury or form concerns, because their young bodies just can’t handle the load. It would be folly, in my opinion, to not keep a trade on ice for each of these players to replace them as they inevitably fall away.

A bit late this week but still very relevant, seeing as the next three rounds are where cash cows start topping out and underperforming premiums hit their lowest points. A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Herald-Sun Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

My first recommendation last week was Brad Johnson, and while his price did drop again in all competitions, his score was good enough to suggest that he’s turned the corner so it was worth buying him. He’s still a great pickup this week. The other big forward premium to plummet in value this year is Jonathan Brown, but I am not going to recommend him. Apart from the fact that he is rumoured to be a late withdrawal this week due to a knock to the leg he picked up at training, I think there are still too many doubts over his role in the Lions attack, with Daniel Bradshaw sucking the oxygen out of the forward 50 and Brown being reduced to a leadup role on the wings that his motor can’t handle. Browndog’s breakeven remains very high and I wouldn’t touch him until the point if and when it gets below 100 again.

I’m not a huge fan of Jobe Watson as an AFL player, so I’ll keep this short, but Son Of Timmy is actually a pretty decent Super Coach player when he’s up and running with lots of contested effective handballs. After consecutive sub-40 scores in rounds 2 and 3 he returned to three figures in the Anzac Day game, even getting votes from Mick Malthouse. Strictly for Don fans, this pick, but it wouldn’t be the worst in the world.

If you haven’t got Matthew Pavlich, shame on you, but all is not lost. This is the week to pick him up if you are one of those rare few, because all signs are that he’s going to destroy Nathan Carroll and smash his breakevens in all comps. Similarly, Nick Riewoldt is already slightly on the upswing on his rollercoaster ride so get on board now if you can to take advantage of the midget Richmond backline in round 7.

Sam Fisher is an interesting one. Plenty of people will be looking around for replacements for Joel Bowden et al this week and may look with childlike glee at Fisher’s price (get it?! ). Three poor scores out of the last four is the cause of that, all coming in losses. The Saints have a good run in the next month and I expect him to bounce back starting with the Tigers game.

Loop De Loop

Not many player types do well against the Swans and small forwards are not immune. Matt Campbell and Lindsay Thomas have been decent lower-priced cash cows to start the season, and now is the time to cash in because the Swans have burst their bubble.

Two Crow forwards have also reached the end of their fantasy effectiveness, though this time it’s their own teammates who are the cause. Jason Porplyzia and Bernie Vince have delivered excellent point and dollar returns for their coaches, mainly due to the injuries to Chris Knights and Brent Reilly, along with the move of Simon Goodwin up forward, thus giving the normally stingy Neil Craig a reason to allocate more midfield time-on-ground (TOG) to the two younguns. However, Knights returned in round 7, causing an instant TOG drain on both Porps and Vince, and Reilly will most likely return after the Hall of Fame break as well. Those coaches who have ridden these two to the top of the rollercoaster can thank their own judgement and their luck, and bid a fond farewell as the Germanic-coloured jumpers disappear down the ramp into normality once again.

Elsewhere, it is a minor tragedy that many coaches will not be able to cash in on Xavier Ellis this week due to the continued bloodbath in the backs, but this is the ideal time to move him on. Two sub-60 DT scores and a breakeven of 96 speak of a player who is hanging onto the rollercoaster car for dear life and staring at the abyss yawning before him. Similarly, Cale Morton is looking increasingly like he needs a dose of Sandringham action to restore his confidence in his ability to attack a contest… not surprising really since his arms appear to have been glued together from spent matchsticks.

This is a new feature on the FanFooty blog. I’ve called it Rollercoaster because it’s going to focus on player prices, following the ups and downs of weekly price variations. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.

Big Dippers

We’ll start with the biggest of the big dippers so far this year, Brad Johnson. After his stellar round 1, he has put in three shockers in a row. Rodney Eade today confirmed what we could all see out on the field, which is that BJ has not been fit. It started off with groin soreness in round 1, then a knock to the hip didn’t help matters in round 2, and a corked leg made things even worse in subsequent games. What Eade didn’t talk about at the presser was a possible change in Johnson’s role. His owners, myself included, are now getting increasingly worried about the emergence of Josh Hill as a lead-up forward and the effect that Scott Welsh’s recruitment has had on the inside-50 structure of the Dogs. BJ’s 31-year-old body has had a lot of punishment over the years, and like Scott West he may well be getting eased out of his formerly dominant role.

The problem with Johnson is that if you wanted to do anything about this situation, last week was probably the week to do it. His match-winning round 1 performance was still in his rolling average after round 3 and thus he didn’t drop by much. This week, however, he crashed $40,000 in DT and $71,400 in SC. He is going to play this week, he is a champion so he will play through the injuries, and if you haven’t offloaded him by now then now is not the time to do it.

For those lucky so-and-sos who haven’t got him and are wondering when he will bottom out, I would plan on after round 7 when the Dogs play Sydney.

Cameron Bruce is the equal biggest loser in DT this year with Brett Ebert at a drop of $67,600. Ebert is not a fantasy player but Bruce is, so the fact that Bruce’s breakeven is at a reasonable level of 98 this week after successive 80+ scores suggest that his price has just about bottomed out. The reason his price went down in the first place was that he has been given tagging jobs on the opposition’s best small forward such as Brad and Steve Johnson. His recent improvement in scoring has been because in the Geelong game he added the ability to run forward and hurt his opponent going the other way. It will be interesting to see how Bruce’s role evolves under his new coach, particularly against Carlton where he might be released back into the midfield.

Heath Scotland put in three shocking fantasy performances to start the year, but posted a DT ton on the weekend against the Pies. His price is down $66,600 in DT and $97,500 in SC, with breakevens comparable to his latest number in both comps. However, it must be noted that eight Blues reached the century mark in DT in that game, and I think it’s a mere blip on a gradual withdrawal from serious fantasy consideration. I think his role has changed under Brett Ratten, and with he, Andrew Carrazzo and Bret Thornton all scrapping for stats in that backline there won’t be enough to go around most weeks.

On the positive side, it doesn’t take a Rhodes Scholar to notice that Aaron Davey has bottomed out. After three poor weeks he turned in a very creditable 77/103 against the Roos and his breakevens are below 70 in both comps. Also, a reminder that Justin Koschitzke’s round 2 score of 27/24 comes out of his rolling average this week, bringing his breakeven way down.

Loop De Loop

Cameron Stokes is the standout amongst those players whose price may have topped out after weeks of 22/15 and 26/35. He has done well to last this long in Hawthorn’s 22, and this week is most likely the one he will get Box Hilled for a large chunk of the season.

Travis Tuck is another Hawk who looks to have almost leveled out, albeit due to injury - a knock to the knee with no structural damage, 50/50 for this week. Even if he does play, that 20/19 is going to stay in his rolling average for another two weeks, making it difficult for him to earn much by the third week. He’s probably good for another small rise after his next game, however.

After the disappointment of Thornton last week, this week it was the turn of those who had chosen to upgrade to Michael Osborne and Nathan Bock to grind their teeth. Bock had a nightmare trying to keep Lance Franklin quiet, while Osborne was well beaten by Michael Doughty of all people. You’ll just have to grin and bear it if you picked them up, hoping that it was a one-off aberration.