The pickings are rather lean this week, which is bad timing given the problems with many premium players, particularly in the forwards.

Backpocalypse

Tim Houlihan, WCE BAC. DT: 4899 selections, $83,500, -58 BE, 60.5 avg. SC: 2669 selections, $94,200, -24 BE, 40.5 avg.
Beau Wilkes, WCE BAC. DT: 6337 selections, $72,600, -59 BE, 57 avg. SC: 12331 selections, $83,400, -131 BE, 90.5 avg.
Michael Wilson, PTA BAC. DT: 1624 selections, $267,700, 110 BE, 45 avg. SC: 1330 selections, $344,000, 138 BE, 34.5 avg.

Plenty of coaches are eyeing off the two Eaglets for fantasy relevance. The first instinct of many is to go for the rookie-listed player as the cash return on the downgrade is around $10,000 greater, but my feeling is that Houlihan has much more of a chance to get a decent run of games, as coach John Worsfold included his name among three players he nominated to be given opportunities in the rest of West Coast’s sorry 2008 season (the others being Brad Ebert and Chris Masten). Wilkes’ Super Coach scores make him much more tasty in that competition, nevertheless. My recommendation is that if you can swing Wilkes to be your ninth back then by all means take that extra ten Gs and run, because hopefully you’ll never be playing him. If your other bench back is someone like a Scott Selwood, Albert Proud or Scott D. Thompson, then it’s not worth the risk of getting a zero later in the season, and Houlihan is more likely not to let you down.

If you can possibly wait, Dennis Armfield is likely to hit the bubble next week, so he might be a better DT prospect. Then again, he might eventually get dicked around like Darren Pfeiffer is currently, so perhaps it’s better to go with the kids in a rebuilding side like the Weagles.

Centrageddon

Josh P. Kennedy, HAW CTR. DT: 3974 selections, $83,500, -48 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 4671 selections, $94,200, -32 BE, 44.5 avg.
Farren Ray, WBD CTR. DT: 948 selections, $286,200, 90 BE, 62 avg. SC: 1063 selections, $337,200, 107 BE, 48 avg.

If you didn’t get on Trent Cotchin last week then you’ve missed the boat. K3 is a poor substitute. With Crawford, McGlynn and Hodge due to return soon, Kennedy’s spot is temporary, and he’ll be back at Box Hill before he earns any decent coin.

Forwardystopia

Jarryd Morton, HAW FWD. DT: 5587 selections, $83,500, -69 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6593 selections, $94,200, -84 BE, 70.5 avg.
Travis Varcoe, GEE FWD. DT: 1663 selections, $184,600, 21 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 2300 selections, $264,100, 42 BE, 58.5 avg.
Nathan Krakouer, PTA FWD. DT: 1980 selections, $191,500, 43 BE, 50.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $217,500, 21 BE, 55 avg.
Adem Yze, MEL CTR/FWD. DT: 846 selections, $340,900, 119 BE, 68 avg. SC: 2406 selections, $380,200, 103 BE, 62.5 avg.
Scott Lucas, ESS FWD. DT: 2762 selections, $384,200, 236 BE, 25.5 avg. SC: 4215 selections, $534300, 271 BE, 25 avg.

A large number of coaches are in blind panic mode in the forwards: Brett Burton and Robert Murphy suspended; Jonathan Brown iffy to start with that hyperextended knee; Paul Chapman treated more gently than a newborn child by the Geelong medicos; Ryan Gamble, Ryan Davis and Shane Valenti warming the pine; and Kurt Tippett stinking up the joint something chronic. As with Kennedy above, Morton’s place in the Hawks’ 22 is under severe threat from returning stars. He has collected the ball 20+ times in his first two games but his disposal efficiency leaves a lot to be desired, something which gets a black mark next to your name under the current Hawthorn administration. Notwithstanding that, Morton obviously knows how to read the play, and any player who racks up 20 touches in his first two games can’t be dismissed out of hand. With reluctance, he earns the title of Bubble Boy of the Week.

Meanwhile, the only interest from fantasy coaches in Scott Lucas should be in how much he deflates his price for the 2009 season. As for Yze, he won’t be sighted in 2009 in anything other than civvies.

Another important week for bubble boys this week, as several popular rookies have hit the top of the rollercoaster, including Kurt Tippett, Ryan Gamble and maybe even David Myers.

Backpocalypse

Matt Riggio, KAN BAC. DT: 5224 selections, $112,900, -24 BE, 54.5 avg. SC: 3421 selections, $203,900, 1 BE, 61.5 avg.
Kepler Bradley, FRE BAC, FWD. DT: 4056 selections, $196,500, -5 BE, 76.5 avg. SC: 10649 selections, $177,000, -33 BE, 70.5 avg.
Scott McMahon, KAN BAC, FWD. DT: 1505 selections, $236,200, 52 BE, 63 avg. SC: 2275 selections, $361,100, 76 BE, 71.5 avg.
Jason Roe, BRL BAC. DT: 1658 selections, $246,700, 75 BE, 55.5 avg. SC: 804 selections, $428,500, 129 BE, 65.5 avg.
Tom Williams, WBD BAC. DT: 598 selections, $202,500, 88 BE, 32.5 avg. SC: 1399 selections, $261,600, 108 BE, 25.5 avg.
Nick Malceski, SYD BAC. DT: 1068 selections, $377,100, 189 BE, 47.5 avg. SC: 819 selections, $541,600, 247 BE, 41 avg.

I’ll include the two BAC/FWDs in the backs since there’s a lot less quality to be had in the backs this year - not that it matters since you’re not going to be considering either of them. No, not even with Kepler Bradley’s big negative breakeven. This is Kepler Bradley we’re talking about here, people! He is a spud of the highest order. You can not seriously consider Bradley. Like Marcus Drum, Chris Mayne and Ryan Murphy before him, the third tall slot on the Dockers forward line is good for a few weeks of decent scoring at most, after which sanity prevails.

Riggio is the only player amongst this lot that should interest fantasy coaches. Working against him, however, is the implacable hatred of Kangaroos coach Dean Laidley that fantasy coaches have worked up over the last two years. Laidley has consistently mucked about with his rookie backs, to the point where just about every one of you must have been burned by a Lachie Hansen, Scott D. Thompson… even Riggio himself last year. You just can not trust Laidley to leave Riggio in the North 22 long enough for him to be a decent backup.

Tim Houlihan and Beau Wilkes hit the bubble next week. I’d be much more inclined to wait a week to see how they stack up in the Eagles structure.

Centrageddon

Trent Cotchin, RIC CTR. DT: 14061 selections, $119500, -25 BE, 57.5 avg. SC: 19537 selections, $139200, -61 BE, 73 avg.
Brent Reilly, ADE CTR. DT: 844 selections, $327400, 92 BE, 77.5 avg. SC: 1483 selections, $382300, 98 BE, 67 avg.

Cotchin is the real deal, which makes him Bubble Boy of the Week. He is particularly a must in Super Coach. Craig Bird, Bachar Houli, Travis Tuck, Cale Morton, Tim Callan, Kieren Jack (in DT only)… all these centre rookies are ripe for the plucking, and Cotchin is the man to get.

Ruckolocaust

Chris Bryan, COL RUC. DT: 995 selections, $220600, 35 BE, 65.5 avg. SC: 1556 selections, $267700, 54 BE, 54.5 avg.
Ivan Maric, ADE RUC. DT: 2093 selections, $207700, 76 BE, 40.5 avg. SC: 2018 selections, $284300, 56 BE, 58.5 avg.

No and no.

Forwardystopia

Shane Valenti, MEL CTR, FWD. DT: 12480 selections, $72600, -62 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 13249 selections, $83400, -83 BE, 67 avg.
Ryan Davis, WCE FWD. DT: 4813 selections, $72600, -20 BE, 37.5 avg. SC: 4696 selections, $83400, -24 BE, 37.5 avg.

Valenti looks like the standout option here, but there is still the problem of which rookie Melbourne is going to demote once Jack Grimes returns to the senior list in three weeks’ time. Austin Wonaeamirri is undoubtedly the more exciting player, and the Demons fans desperately want someone to barrack for each week, so Valenti may very well be the odd man out. Davis might end up playing more games, although at his current scoring rate he doesn’t look like a fantasy option. The only other pre-bubble forward rookie who played in round 9 was Jarryd Morton, and as Molly said on the Coaches Box podcast this week, there’s no guarantees on Morton getting a decent run of games with the Hawks’ injury/suspension list set to shorten again soon. It’s a tricky situation, and with most coaches feeling a desperate need to downgrade the aforementioned Tippett and/or Gamble this week there is not much to downgrade to. The decision that most will make is to go with Valenti and hope that another Demon goes down with injury in the next two or three games. If I was Brad Miller, I’d be very wary of blokes carrying 4×2s in the MCG carpark for the next little while…

It’s a small selection of players who played their second game this week, but let’s trudge through them anyway.

Backpocalypse

Scott D. Thompson, KAN BAC. DT: 15503 selections, $83,500, -19 BE, 41 avg. SC: 28767 selections, $94,200, -93 BE, 75 avg.
James Frawley, MEL BAC. DT: 2904 selections, $131,700, -2 BE, 50.5 avg. SC: 3490 selections, $221,200, 4 BE, 64.5 avg.
Marcus Drum, FRE BAC. DT: 2494 selections, $225,800, 12 BE, 78.5 avg. SC: 5081 selections, $293,300, -12 BE, 94 avg.
Andrew Welsh, ESS BAC. DT: 1377 selections, $327,000, 91 BE, 77 avg. SC: 3754 selections, $383,800, 121 BE, 55 avg.

Oh Scott, I had such high hopes for you. I even christened you Scott DT. Then you got dropped for round 2, and then dropped out of my squad too, as in many others. Those 15,000+ hardy souls who kept the faith for the four intervening matches between your first and second appearances, who suffered through many trial and tribulations in the sorry excuse for a position that the fantasy backline has been this year, then had to endure another sub-50 DT score from you. Admittedly you’ve turned in two 75s in SC, so your 28,000+ owners in that comp are reasonably happy, but the rookie situation in the backs is not as urgent in exotic stat comps due to the fine performances of Harry Taylor, Nathan J. Brown and Austin Wonaemirri which show up much more in SC than DT.

Drum is the only other player who interests me in that lot, due to his debut performance against the Crows. Those who were keeping a close eye on him this week in the Cats game would have seen more to like. His price makes him a tricky pickup nevertheless, even in the barren wasteland of the backs. My major concern continues to be that Drum’s role is pretty much Chris Tarrant’s role, and Tarrant is being paid too much by Fremantle FC not to be back in the senior 22 soon. Then again, we would have thought that of bloody Joel Bowden, and after three weeks he’s no guarantee of getting back into the Tigers this week.

Centrageddon

David Armitage, STK CTR. DT: 9935 selections, $133,200, -46 BE, 73 avg. SC: 13578 selections, $175,300, -61 BE, 83.5 avg.
Clayton Hinkley, FRE CTR. DT: 1680 selections, $83,500, -19 BE, 41 avg. SC: 1878 selections, $94,200, -17 BE, 37 avg.
Adam Thomson, PTA CTR. DT: 981 selections, $270,000, 55 BE, 73.5 avg. SC: 774 selections, $372,000, 55 BE, 84.5 avg.
Adam Bentick, CAR CTR. DT: 193 selections, $339,000, 104 BE, 75 avg. SC: 270 selections, $438,600, 120 BE, 71.5 avg.

I picked up Armitage myself for my DT squad last week, although I admit it was a bit of a desperation move. A 55 after his his initial 91 in DT wasn’t great - if you are picking up Armitage at this stage you probably need him to fit right into your 22. This week against Richmond, who have suddenly figured out how to tackle and put pressure on opposing midfielders again, will be another stern test of his ability to find the pill.

On Hinkley, Freo don’t need yet another inside/outside mid with poor skills. They’ve already got at least 15 of those blokes on their list.

Forwardystopia

Chad Jones, WCE FWD. DT: 3352 selections, $139,100, -6 BE, 55 avg. SC: 1575 selections, $239,400, 50 BE, 47 avg.
Ryan Murphy, FRE FWD. DT: 2409 selections, $150,800, 20 BE, 46.5 avg. SC: 2539 selections, $200,000, 58 BE, 31 avg.

Neither of these boys are producing 22-worthy scores, so if you’re looking to milk your forward cash cows then I wouldn’t bother with these two.

So, that’s all of the players who are new to the bubble this week. I can’t bring myself to make any of them my Bubble Boy of the Week. Just not enough quality there, even with Armitage sitting on such a low breakeven. Ah, but there is another group of players who have been sitting on the bubble for many weeks now, just waiting to play their third week of the game. There are some good rookie backs who are in this situation and are in line for selection this week, including Albert Proud (BE of -1 in DT/-14 in SC), Jake Edwards (-28/-30), Scott Selwood (-22/-69) and Matthew Spangher (-29/-42). There is also Matthew Whelan who returns from a one-game suspension this week as a back priced at $181,500/$265,000 with a BE of 14/-8. Finally, there is Stuart Dew, who has a BE of -48/-9 and has recovered from his hamstring injury. Yes, I know that Dew is a continuing injury risk, but I believe he is firmly in Alastair Clarkson’s plans for the rest of the season and if fit he will get games and have some days out like he did against Melbourne in round 1. In particular, Dew looms as a very tasty downgrade for owners of Josh Hill, Bernie Vince and Jason Porplyzia. For these reason, Dew is my Bubble Boy of the Week.

UPDATE: Turns out Dew is only an emergency this week, which certainly bursts my bubble! Given the lack of quality in the backs this week, I’ll have to switch to Whelan.

Due to popular demand, I will now include Herald-Sun Super Coach numbers as well as AFL Dream Team ones in the listings below. There are actually 29 players on the bubble this week, but I will only look at those whose breakevens are below their 2008 average. First, the players who are bubblicious in both DT and SC competitions.

One Swallow Doesn’t Make A Season

Matthew Kreuzer, CAR RUC. DT: 63,979 selections, $123,500, -32 BE, 62 avg. SC: 84,442 selections, $144,200, -41 BE, 63.5 avg
Shaun Grigg, CAR CTR. DT: 1,079 selections, $165,900, 22 BE, 51 avg. SC: 1,965 selections, $180,300, -5 BE, 56.5 avg

Everyone who has Kreuzer already is pleased. Nobody who hasn’t got Kreuzer should be wasting a trade on getting him in, IMO. Even if Trent West gets dropped this week - as the MRP should have done already for his hit on Xavier Clarke - it’s not worth burning a trade on your ruck bench this early in the campaign. Grigg is not worth considering.

What Did I Just Say

Mitch Morton, RIC FWD. DT: 2,040 selections, $259,000, 44 BE, 74.5 avg. SC: 1,991 selections, $319,200, 61 BE, 65 avg
Matt White, RIC CTR. DT: 489 selections, $180,500, 38 BE, 48.5 avg. SC: 576 selections, $243,700, 9 BE, 68.5 avg

I like Morton as a player. He impressed me when I saw him live in the pre-season against Geelong, he does nice things when he gets near the ball, but my concern is that he still doesn’t get enough of it. 70/76 when your team is murdering the opposition on a wide ground is not a good return for a HFF. White’s 58/92 on the weekend looked impressive from an SC point of view, particularly as he kicked three points and no goals. I don’t trust that form, however.

The Great White-Haired Hope

Clinton Jones, STK CTR. DT: 2,002 selections, $188,900, 35 BE, 53 avg. SC: 3,522 selections, $205,700, -3 BE, 63 avg

I was expecting reasonably large things out of Jones this year, if not big things. He was in that group with Jarryn Geary and David Armitage into whom fantasy coaches put a lot of research in the pre-season, and Geary ended up being the one to have in your squad from the start. Jones was a late in as an emergency this week, as was White above, which screams out “fringe player”.

Baby Bubble Bombers

Andrew Lovett, ESS CTR. DT: 1,674 selections, $328,400, 64 BE, 90.5 avg. SC: 2,722 selections, $408,700, 80 BE, 82 avg
Kyle Reimers, ESS FWD. DT: 3,143 selections, $154,900, -35 BE, 75.5 avg. SC: 8,543 selections, $128,800, -84 BE, 80.5 avg (Bubble Boy of the Week!)

Lovett has looked like a million dollars so far, though given the colours he’s wearing he’s only one more bursting run away from yet another three-week hamstring twang. Reimers looks more interesting to me: a kick to handball ratio of 25:7, plus five marks, two tackles and a goal each game. His lower SC price and higher scores make him even more attractive in that comp. The Bombers are hurting for talls with both Lucas and Lloyd injured, making him eve. One word of caution, however: his first two opponents were the Blues and Dogs, both of whom play expansive games. He’s got Collingwood and Port Adelaide in the next two weeks, two more teams who allow space to opposing forwards. Sydney in round 8 and Adelaide in round 10 await, however.

Eaglets To The Slaughter

Chris Masten, WCE CTR. DT: 16,104 selections, $115,500, -29 BE, 57.5 avg. SC: 10,167 selections, $134,200, -27 BE, 54 avg
Ben McKinley, WCE FWD. DT: 3,195 selections, $130,300, -34 BE, 66 avg. SC: 6,017 selections, $118,000, -116 BE, 93.5 avg
Scott Selwood, WCE BAC/CTR. DT: 44,094 selections, $83,500, -22 BE, 42.5 avg. SC: 59,806 selections, $94,200, -69 BE, 63 avg

Selwood was one of the most popular players in the whole of Dream Team before the season started, and after round 3 all of his owners would have been patting themselves on the back. Masten owners, too, would have been pleased. Even after the predictable Swans effect, it can only get better for them. McKinley is the one out of the box, however. Kicking 80% of the Eagles’ goals is no mean feat, even if they do have the worst points for in the AFL. Given how poorly many of the premium forwards have performed over the first four rounds it’s going to be very tempting to a lot of you out there to downgrade a Brad Johnson, Matthew Lloyd or Kayne Pettifer to either McKinley or Reimers, and pour the money into your suffering backline. If you decide to go that route, I would recommend Reimers in DT and McKinley in SC. The other possible scenario by which you could pick up McKinley or Reimers this week is if you have Kurt Tippett. Tippett has been used as a decoy forward at best by the Crows. He has also been called upon to pinch hit in the ruck with disastrous results for his fantasy scoring, leading to three consecutive sub-40 DT scores after his opening 51. With a breakeven of 10 he’s still going to be earning you some pocket change, but selling him will eventually earn you a nice profit. Personally, though I have Tippett, I’m saving the trade, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking the chance.

Take A Good Hard Look

Austin Wonaeamirri, MEL BAC/CTR. DT: 8,246 selections, $72,600, -62 BE, 58.5 avg. SC: 8,322 selections, $83,400, -84 BE, 67 avg

By no means is Wonaemirri turning in 22-worthy scores. However, if you are still carrying one of the multitudinous overhyped non-playing back rookies this week like Scott D. Thompson, Lachie Hansen, David Myers or Jamie McNamara, it’s a pretty safe decision to make a sideways rookie trade.

DT-only prospect

Max Rooke, GEE BAC. DT: 2,972 selections, $235,400, 58 BE, 59 avg.

No.

SC-only prospects

Paul Duffield, FRE BAC/CTR. SC: 1,318 selections, $310,300, 33 BE, 76.5 avg.
Brendon Goddard, STK BAC. SC: 6,081 selections, $483,600, 96 BE, 96.5 avg.
Robert Warnock, FRE RUC. SC: 1,464 selections, $254,800, 49 BE, 51.5 avg.

Goddard is the only one of interest here, obviously. Having been priced at an average of 80 in DT and 90 in SC, and starting with an 85/103 from limited TOG in round 3, plenty of coaches had their beady eyes on his formline. This week he turned in a 62/90, pushing his DT breakeven to 114 but leaving his SC breakeven at a gettable 96. I think he’s a decent SC pickup now but I remain to be convinced that he can push his price high in the short term, so I’d wait on him to bottom out and concentrate elsewhere in your team for now.

Due to the overwhelming clamour for this feature (i.e. one bloke whinged about it in the comments!), and due to the fact that we didn’t cover it completely in this week’s Coaches Box podcast, I’ve decided to bring it back for the blog.

There are a lot of players on the bubble this week, including a surprisingly large number of rookies. Let’s first deal with all the senior players who missed a game here or there.

The Also-Rans

Robert Copeland, BRL CTR/FWD, $224,600, 68 BE, 47.5 avg
Justin Sherman, BRL CTR, $238,200, 110 BE, 31.5 avg
Brad Fisher, CAR FWD, $343,100, 106 BE, 71.5 avg
Michael Jamison, CAR BAC, $192,800, 103 BE, 18.5 avg
Jordan Russell, CAR CTR, $221,300, 57 BE, 52 avg
Scott Burns, COL CTR, $359,300, 91 BE, 85 avg
Ben Johnson, COL CTR, $320,900, 79 BE, 77 avg
Nathan Lovett-Murray, ESS BAC, $272,600, 47 BE, 75.5 avg
Henry Slattery, ESS CTR, $199,300, 57 BE, 44 avg
Jason Winderlich, ESS CTR, $357,100, 133 BE, 63 avg
David Wojcinski, GEE CTR, $248,900, 74 BE, 53.5 avg
Campbell Brown, HAW BAC, $256,400, 51 BE, 67.5 avg
Luke Hodge, HAW CTR, $412,600, 118 BE, 91 avg
Leigh Brown, KAN FWD, $220,500, 30 BE, 65 avg
Lynden Dunn, MEL FWD, $259,100, 93 BE, 47.5 avg
Colin Sylvia, MEL FWD, $273,900, 81 BE, 59 avg
Troy Chaplin, PTA BAC, $267,700, 91 BE, 52 avg
Kane Johnson, RIC CTR, $350,800, 86 BE, 84.5 avg
Jason Blake, STK BAC, CTR, $235,900, 57 BE, 57.5 avg
Fraser Gehrig, STK FWD, $292,100, 131 BE, 40.5 avg
Luke McPharlin, FRE BAC/FWD, $285,200, 32 BE, 87.5 avg
Chris Tarrant, FRE FWD, $311,500, 156 BE, 35 avg

The only possible value I could see out of that lot is Lovett-Murray and McPharlin, although they have shown inconsistency over their careers. Sherman has been extremely disappointing, and should have been dropped this week instead of Proud. Hodge seems to have dropped out permanently from the list of top 10 fantasy midfielders, due in part to continuing injury concerns and the roles he undertakes.

The Disaster Zone

Harry Taylor, GEE BAC/CTR, $83,500, -69 BE, 65 avg
Ed Barlow, SYD BAC/CTR, $198,600, 27 BE, 59 avg
Darren Pfeiffer, CAR BAC, $83,500, -61 BE, 61 avg

Thousands upon thousands of coaches are in a panic this week with the selection bombshells about Joel Bowden, Albert Proud, Mark Nicoski (although Nico is going to play after Andrew Embley withdrew) and the continued absence of Roo rookies Scott D. Thompson and Lachie Hansen. Many coaches are also sweating on today’s late teams to see if Pfeiffer will make the cut (EDIT: he’s in!). I recommend getting Taylor in place of Hansen or Scott DT, and if you can wait for the final teams to be sure of Pfeiffer’s spot then he’s also a decent pickup. However, I would prefer Scott Selwood over Pfeiffer… he’s the real Scott DT!

If Only

Rhys Palmer, FRE CTR, $99,500, -104 BE, 88.5 avg (Bubble Boy of the Week!)
Clint Bartram, MEL CTR, $108,600, -27 BE, 53 avg
Tim Callan, WBD CTR, $110,200, -61 BE, 70.5 avg
Brad Ebert, WCE CTR, $83,500, -28 BE, 44.5 avg

Those of us who have been cruelled in the backs and haven’t already got Palmer have to watch on wistfully as thousands of other coaches get on his bandwagon, with good reason. The Freo midfield is pants this year without Paul Hasleby and Palmer is the new messiah. They’ll play him until his head gets so bandaged he can’t see. And he’d probably still pick up the odd handball or two.

… Know When To Run

Ryan Gamble, GEE FWD, $83,500, -77 BE, 69 avg
Chris Mayne, FRE FWD, $83,500, -34 BE, 47.5 avg
Lachlan Henderson, BRL FWD, $95,500, 3 BE, 33.5 avg

Attention will most likely be elsewhere this week, unlike last week where Stuart Dew owners were scouring through the forward rookie ranks for a replacement. If you haven’t got Gamble already, it would be a brave move to trade away someone like Kurt Tippett but my feeling is that it would be justified. If you have the capacity to do so, I salute your gumption… and your luck!

Instead of the regular Boys on the Bubble post this week, since almost everyone’s on the bubble let’s just look at players with a negative breakeven. Breakeven has become a part of AFL fantasy football terminology: it refers to the score that a player must score this week in order for their price in a salary cap competition not to drop. 40 players have negative breakevens in the AFL Dream Team competition this week, meaning that they are the best sideways trade targets if you want to offload an injured or underperforming player on your team. Some of them are worth picking up this week, others not so much. Let’s go through them in a position-by-position breakdown.

Backs
Michael Osborne, $239,200, BE of -49, avg of 107
Bret Thornton, $249,200, BE of -45, avg of 108.5
Jake Edwards, $83,500, BE of -34, avg of 45.5
Alipate Carlile, $139,500, BE of -33, avg of 64.5
Max Hudghton, $150,700, BE of -22, avg of 63
Nathan Carroll, $229,100, BE of -10, avg of 84
Heath Grundy, $122,100, BE of -17, avg of 50.5
Jarryd Roughead, $226,300, BE of -16, avg of 86

Like many of you, I’m suffering from having a poor set of back rookies due in part to the 70 minutes of madness before round 1. The most noticeable thing about this list is that there is only one rookie in it, due in part to pre-season fantasy favourites getting little to no love from AFL coaches: Albert Proud, Darren Pfeiffer and Scott D. Thompson have played only one game and thus don’t qualify yet, and we haven’t even seen David Myers, Eric McKenzie or Lachie Hansen. Nathan J. Brown has a breakeven of 0 but he’s more of an SC prospect than a DT one.

I suppose we can group these eight players into two lots of four. Osborne, Carroll, Roughead and Thornton are in the upper tier of pricing, while the others are closer to rookie prices. People are already starting to ask about Osborne and Thornton, so here’s my opinion: both of these players are flashes in the pan. Thornton has played St Kilda, who provide no pressure on backmen because they all flood into the opposition forward line, and Richmond, who provide no pressure on anyone. His next three opponents are Essendon, Collingwood and Melbourne, so I could see him scoring reasonably well in all three of those games, but after that Carlton’s draw really tightens up. Be happy if you were lucky enough to select him at the start. Don’t expect him to deliver DT tons all year. On Osborne, you have to discount his score against Melbourne since it was such a rout, and the Freo game was pretty open and easy too. I would want to see him with Lewis and Crawford back in the side, I don’t think he can keep it up when the Hawks have their #1 midfield rotation on the park. As for Roughead and Carroll: neither of them are fantasy players. It’s a sad thing, I wouldn’t take any of these options.

So then you have Carlile, Hudghton, Grundy and Edwards. No to the first two, they are key position backmen and they rarely deliver consistent scores. Grundy and Edwards are more interesting to me. I think Grundy has been ignored somewhat in the pre-season, and it’s not often that you find a player that cheap who is named in his team’s first XVIII. He’s more likely to keep his spot than Edwards, and he is scoring more. He’s almost $40,000 more expensive, of course, and it’s a sign of the poor quality of this year’s fantasy backs that we’re even having to make this choice… nevertheless I’d go Grundy over Edwards if I had to make the choice (and I had the cash).

Centres
Jarryn Geary, $83,500, BE of -78, avg of 67.5
Travis Tuck, $138,100, BE of -68, avg of 81.5
Kieran Jack, $91,200, BE of -66, avg of 64
Sam Lonergan, $83,500, BE of -60, avg of 58.5
David Mackay, $83,500, BE of -37, avg of 47
Craig Bird, $83,500, BE of -32, avg of 44.5
Cale Morton, $111,500, BE of -23, avg of 50
Courtenay Dempsey, $133,800, BE of -18, avg of 55
Matt Thomas, $170,500, BE of -12, avg of 64.5
Lindsay Thomas, $197,200, BE of -11, avg of 73.5
Dylan Addison, $172,900, BE of -5, avg of 62
Adam Ramanauskas, $220,600, BE of -4, avg of 78
James Kelly, $333,100, BE of -2, avg of 116
Osborne (as above)

We can take Dempsey out due to his hamstring injury, and leave Thomas to the forwards since he qualifies there too. That injury to Dempsey is a shame, because everyone’s looking for this year’s Matt Priddis, who at this stage last year was priced at $175,500, and I was ready to anoint Courtenay as the new prince. Sadly, there may not be a Priddis this year… unless maybe it’s Tuck. I was on board with Tuck, Geary and Bird in this pre-season and also Jack in Super Coach, as many of you were, so you won’t get any argument from me about whether those four are the real deal. Now that Paul Roos has had a look at Bird in the midfield he should keep him there - Bird smashed former Rising Star Danyle Pearce on Sunday. Jack should also keep his place after throwing his body in Bloods-style and concussing himself twice. Tuck top scored for the Hawks in a dominant performance, while Geary has survived fantasy killers Sydney and capitalised on Carlton to be the most-sought-after fantasy rookie centre. As for the other rookie-priced midfielders, Lonergan really fell away in Round 2, while Mackay and Morton are only producing bench-worthy scores at best. Thomas and Addison are racking up some decent numbers at a price band that not many fantasy coaches would have considered, and probably would not have room for now. Kelly is a blip who will fall back when Steve Johnson hits form, while I would not recommend Ramanauskas based on his round 2 score.

Rucks
Michael Gardiner, $145,500, BE of -23, avg of 61.5
Cameron Cloke, $227,300, BE of -16, avg of 86.5
Trent West, $83,500, BE of -16, avg of 36.5
Troy Simmonds, $236,700, BE of -11, avg of 87

We all knew Simmonds was going to be better than his price suggested, and he’s exceeded even those expectations with some damn good scores. If he keeps this up he’s a consideration to be a keeper. Cloke is the big surprise here, although you’d have to worry that Matthew Kreuzer and Cain Ackland will cut into his production once they suit up.

Forwards
Josh Hill, $103,400, BE of -107, avg of 89
Cameron Stokes, $72,600, BE of -90, avg of 70
Ryan Gamble, $83,500, BE of -81, avg of 69
Cyril Rioli, $83,500, BE of -79, avg of 68
Stuart Dew, $162,800, BE of -58, avg of 85
Matt Campbell, $170,700, BE of -45, avg of 81
Leigh Harding, $151,500, BE of -29, avg of 66.5
Kurt Tippett, $83,500, BE of -27, avg of 42
Paul Medhurst, $240,700, BE of -16, avg of 91
Colin Garland, $91,200, BE of -16, avg of 39
Paul Stewart, $83,500, BE of -14, avg of 35.5
Jason Porplyzia, $256,200, BE of -9, avg of 92.5
Jay Schulz, $191,800, BE of -4, avg of 68
Bernie Vince, $168,700, BE of -2, avg of 59
Nathan Thompson, $178,400, BE of -1, avg of 62
Thomas, Grundy and Roughead (as above)

Hill is the obvious standout here, especially for those of us who took a chance on Dew (no no, that’s just a bit of grit in my eye, I’m not crying really… :’( ). He’s safe as a downgrade target from a disappointing mid-pricer. Very few of you would have missed out on at least two of Rioli, Tippett, Hill and Gamble already. Stokes has some very tasty numbers, although I still worry about how many games the Hawks will actually give him considering his youth and body shape, it’s not a very endurance-loaded frame he’s got there I would have thought. Garland and Stewart have dropped away and aren’t worth considering at this stage.

Of the mid-priced forwards, Porplyzia is the choice for obvious reasons, mostly having to do with injuries to Chris Knights and Brent Reilly forcing the hand of Crows coach Neil Craig who would otherwise be very stingy with TOG for his younger players. Expect Porps to drop off once those players return, by which time he should have made a tidy profit for you. Thomas, Campbell and Harding have had some soft opponents in the first two rounds and that won’t continue. Medhurst and to a lesser extent Schulz are the classic rollercoaster players for fantasy, and a big dipper is never far away so I wouldn’t pay a ticket for the ride. Vince and Thompson have been disappointing, especially this week when both couldn’t capitalise on their teams dominating forward entries - I wouldn’t jump off just yet because they are going to earn money, but I’d consider benching them based on matchups, e.g. Vince in R4 at Aurora vs Hawthorn and Thompson in R5 vs Collingwood where young Brown is a solid matchup for him.

Next week we’ll be back to the normal BOTB format. Happy trading!

Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

Old, Slow Starters

Alan Didak, COL FWD: $325,900, 127 BE, 69 avg
Jason Johnson, ESS CTR: $341,900, 97 BE, 90.5 avg

Didak had some fantasy wraps on him coming into the season but a long-term injury has nixed his value. Johnson burnt a lot of coaches last year with his poor early form and spotty selection issues, so it’s going to take a lot of consecutive tons or 90+s for confidence to be restored in him.

Struggle Street

Peter Street, WBD RUC: $219,700, 96 BE, 41.5 avg

Nup. No. Nada. Uh uh.

The Prodigal Son

Steve Johnson, GEE FWD: $263,900, 41 BE, 87 avg

Johnson has a bee in his bonnet after being suspended by his teammates for off-field indiscretions for the first five rounds, which has seen a jump in his production. His numbers are dodgy though, since the previous week his 97 was gathered in a 157-point win where practically every Cat player had a good fantasy day, and this week’s 79 is more like the top end of his scoring potential. Look elsewhere for value in the forwards.

Pre-Season Potential

Matt White, RIC CTR: $197,400, 60 BE, 50.5 avg
Matt Thomas, PTA CTR: $183,100, 43 BE, 53 avg

Both of these Matts were taken in the first round of last year’s pre-season draft, but they are taking a while to come on. I’ve been watching White more closely, and it’s probably a sign that he’s not such hot stuff that he hasn’t got more of a run for the Tigers given how poorly their first 22 has played this season. Thomas is probably suffering more from opportunity than anything, and given he scored 32 this week he might get dropped. Both players won’t figure in fantasy calculations this year, but are worth keeping an eye on for 2008 when they enter their crucial third year.

The Next Fiora?

Shane Birss, STK CTR: $174,100, 20 BE, 61 avg

Those who saw Aaron Fiora explode this season at the Saints and cursed themselves for missing out might also be looking at fellow two-club player Birss and wondering if the same thing will happen. However, Birss’s numbers aren’t so flash and his selection is spotty at best. Better value elsewhere.

Another Lamb To The Slaughter

Matthew Warnock, MEL BAC: $98,200, -10 BE, 45 avg

Demons backs are still getting plenty of the ball, and Warnock was looking good after his round 6 score of 61, but a 29 in round 7 means he’s only good for a bench spot… and this is the wrong week for Warnock to be on the bubble because there’s a far better prospect in his position.

The Rookie Centres

Kieren Jack, SYD CTR: $69,600, -13 BE, 35 avg
Ross Young, CAR CTR: $69,600, -34 BE, 45.5 avg

Bench fodder only. But are you really looking for bench fodder in your centres at this stage of the season? Probably not. You’d rather be jumping on some mid-tiers or upgrading to a premium at this stage, if you are looking at your centres at all.

The Rookie Forwards

Adam Campbell, FRE FWD: $82,500, -27 BE, 47.5 avg
Jarrod Harbrow, WBD FWD: $69,600, -28 BE, 42.5 avg

Campbell arguably won the Dockers the game this week against Hawthorn, so he deserves at least a look by fantasy coaches because he’s most likely won himself a spot in the team for the next little while on that performance. I bet plenty of coaches will be looking at a straight Campbell-for-Campbell swap, Matt for Adam, after Matt’s paltry 8 this week. It would be a gamble, nevertheless, since a 40 and a 55 are hardly 22 material. Harbrow may turn out to be better cash cow material in the end - I’d say it’s a 50/50 proposition about which player will be better value - and that extra $12,900 will probably come in handy so plenty of coaches will go for the Bulldog.

Bubble Boy Of The Week

Joey Jesse, I’m Not Angry Any More

Jesse W. Smith, KAN BAC: $91,600, -81 BE, 78 avg

Can’t argue with that average, price or breakeven. JWS is going to make his way into thousands of teams this week… certainly into mine to replace the injured Brendon Goddard! Those who held onto Justin Koschitzke, Nathan Bock, Xavier Clarke or Andrew Raines through their tribulations might also decide that they have topped out, and JWS is the perfect exchange.

Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

Yet More Young Kids

Shane Edwards, RIC CTR: $82300, 4 B/E, 31 avg
Joe Anderson, CAR BAC: $82300, 23 B/E, 21.5 avg
Blake Grima, KAN CTR: $113900, 23 B/E, 34.5 avg
Marcus Allan, BRL CTR: $117800, 32 B/E, 31.5 avg

None of these four players, while cheap, were in many fantasy teams and their points production has justified their lack of popularity. Edwards is the only one with any value at all, but you’re probably not looking in the centres for your trades this week given the situations in the backs and forwards (more on that later).

The Damp Squibs

Mathew Stokes, GEE CTR: $260500, 74 B/E, 67.5 avg
Kepler Bradley, ESS BAC, FWD: $211100, 63 B/E, 53.5 avg

Stokes’ round 4 score of 93 had a lot of fantasy coaches watching him this week, but a score of 42 in a losing side would have cooled off a lot of interest. As for Bradley, he has been the target of a lot of scorn this year from Bomber fans, and if the fans are bagging one of their own at Windy Hill then you know there’s something wrong with him. Plenty of coaches got burned last year by Bradley’s patchy form, so few would be willing to touch him again.

The Demon Sacrifices

Lynden Dunn, MEL FWD: $194600, 55 B/E, 50.5 avg
Jared Rivers, MEL BAC: $247600, 92 B/E, 53.5 avg
Colin Sylvia, MEL CTR: $235100, 97 B/E, 46 avg
Byron Pickett, MEL CTR: $261600, 134 B/E, 38 avg

Demons? More like lambs to the slaughter, given Melbourne’s injury list. Sylvia is still battling injury from all reports, he’s another who made coaches suffer last year and so he has a lot to prove. Rivers will be too busy doing defensive jobs to worry about getting the footy much, while Dunn still needs to mature to be able to contribute enough to justify a spot in a fantasy 22. Pickett’s there for presence more than anything else.

The Hot and Cold Pockets

Courtney Johns, ESS FWD: $181000, 54 B/E, 46 avg
Nick Davis, SYD FWD: $277100, 92 B/E, 65.5 avg

Some might have thought that this would be the year that Johns took over from Matthew Lloyd and/or Scott Lucas as one of the go-to talls in the Bombers’ forward line, but as yet he has been starved of supply in the Dons’ wins. It would be a brave coach that would take a punt on him at this point. Davis is getting competition in the small forward position from not only Amon Buchanan but also Tim Schmidt, so I think the days are now gone for him being a viable option in fantasy teams.

The Poor Old Buggers

Steven King, GEE RUC: $244900, 97 B/E, 50 avg
Jamie Charman, BRL RUC: $303900, 103 B/E, 70.5 avg
Jared Crouch, SYD CTR: $215000, 65 B/E, 54 avg
Heath Black, FRE CTR: $310000, 105 B/E, 72 avg

None of these decrepit old-timers should go anywhere near your team. Charman and Black are worth keeping an eye on though, especially Charman who might be a sneaky upgrade target if injuries strike some of the premium rucks later in the season.

The Mid-Tier Centres

Troy Cook, FRE CTR: $238900, 31 B/E, 80.5 avg
Brad Symes, PTA BAC: $332800, 136 B/E, 65.5 avg

Cook is in and out of the Freo side more often than Ben Cousins is… actually, I won’t finish that sentence. Suffice it to say that you can’t rely on him getting a game every week, so that juicy breakeven score should not sway you. Symes is a big disappointment so far - premium playing like a mid-tier - but that could be a good thing as his price dips. He’s one to be mindful of in two to four weeks when looking for upgrades in the backs for Tim Boyle, Xavier Ellis, Justin Koschitzke and other such cash cows.

Bubble Boy Of The Week
Jake King, RIC CTR: $69600, -44 B/E, 50 avg

There were not many options this week so that breakeven score is hard to ignore, but even though I have anointed King this week I would advise against picking him up. With the questionable form of 2007 fantasy favourites Koschitzke and Nathan Bock, plus the looming presence of Warren Tredrea and Nick Riewoldt on the horizon, your attention should be on the backs and/or forwards, depending on which position you put those two in. There will always be another rookie centre to come along in future weeks like King. At a pinch you could downgrade a cash cow centre for him in order to free up cash for a Kosi->Tredders trade or something similar, but the problem with that is that King’s scores are really not good enough for him to be included in your 22 so you’re effectively wasting a second trade on your bench purely for money’s sake. King should be prominent among your options this week, but try not to use him if possible.

Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

The Baby Magpies

Alan TOOVEY, COL BAC: $82300, -54 BE, 60 avg
Shannon COX, COL FWD: $82300, -49 BE, 57.5 avg
Brad DICK, COL FWD: $82300, -17 BE, 41.5 avg
Toovey leapt out of the blocks two weeks ago with a stellar first quarter against the Tigers, but his subsequent seven quarters haven’t been so good. Cox and Dick took a while longer to stiffen up, but they’re full of juice and ready to burst over their break-even lines in an orgasm of price movement. Is that enough penis jokes? Okay, good. The good thing about these three is that you’ll know if they’re playing this week due to the Wednesday Anzac game… and they are all likely to play because the Pies have too many injury worries elsewhere in their lineup to worry about resting their rookies.

Cheap But Nasty

Bernie VINCE, ADE FWD: $110000, -16 BE, 52.5 avg
Paul JOHNSON, MEL RUC: $113900, 5 BE, 43.5 avg
These two are in a tricky position for fantasy coaches: a nice price and a fabulous break-even number, but their actual scores are not up to standard of someone who you want in your 22, so if you were going to pick them up you would have to stow them away on your bench. I could see some coaches taking a punt on Johnson getting more game time in the injury-ravaged Demons 22… maybe even cashing in Ben Hudson in the process. More on that later.

The Also-Rans

Dylan ADDISON, WBD CTR: $172800, 36 BE, 51.5 avg
Ricky DYSON, ESS CTR: $197300, 51 BE, 54 avg
James KELLY, GEE CTR: $253200, 56 BE, 73.5 avg
Greg BENTLEY, PTA CTR: $207100, 56 BE, 55 avg
Luke WEBSTER, FRE CTR: $225000, 67 BE, 57 avg
Chance BATEMAN, HAW CTR: $297000, 79 BE, 79.5 avg
All of these mid-tier centres are scoring at about their 2006 average. They’ll be solid at best, but none of them look like busting out. Look elsewhere.

#%^$(^ING LUKE #!&@_$& BALL, THE _)(&*#@)&#%

Luke BALL, STK CTR: $353000, 168 BE, 57.5 avg
Or so would have gone the laments of thousands of coaches in rounds 2 and 3 as they tried to recreate Ball’s round 1 injury by banging their heads against the nearest blunt object. Ball managed to take the park last week but didn’t do anything special. That humungous break-even score of 168 means that his owners are going to have to look forward to weeks of dropping prices, to add insult to injury. Unfortunately they will just have to grin and bear it, because trading him this week is stupid and they’ll have to hope he repays them later in the season.

The Dodgy Brothers

Brian HARRIS, WBD BAC: $204400, 37 BE, 63.5 avg
Josh GIBSON, KAN BAC: $188500, 59 BE, 46.5 avg
Kasey GREEN, KAN BAC: $219400, 80 BE, 48 avg
Jason PORPLYZIA, ADE FWD: $233400, 87 BE, 50.5 avg
Matthew ROBBINS, WBD FWD: $191200, 89 BE, 32.5 avg
Can’t say I’m too enamoured with any of these forwards or backs. Harris is the only one who looks remotely interesting, though by this stage you should have locked in some cash cows in the backs who should be left alone for another two to four weeks to maximise in price. Josh Gibson is a big disappointment, he was looking like a potential gun last year but he has tailed away with some injuries and poor form.

Do Not Approach Without 40-Foot Barge Pole In Hand

Ashley HANSEN, WCE FWD: $256000, 91 BE, 57.5 avg
One of those players who tantalises with efforts of skill and talent, as in his contender for goal of the year against the hapless Blues. Stay well away from Hansen, he’s fantasy poison. He’s a Bruce Reid type, he’d snap in half like a twig under a gentle zephyr.

The Fragile Gun Forwards

Warren TREDREA, PTA FWD: $278800, 141 BE, 41.5 avg
Nick RIEWOLDT, STK FWD: $379800, 142 BE, 81.5 avg
I heard Dermie on SEN saying Tredders looks like he’s operating at about 25% efficiency, and others were wondering why he was even playing at all. The reason he’s playing is that he needs the gallop, and the SANFL just doesn’t cut it. His price will drop substantially over the next month or so. Do NOT get him now. The same goes to a lesser extent for Roo, who will not take as long to get back to his ton-spanking ways but his price will also dip for at least the next two weeks because his 2006 average was so high. These two will make fabulous upgrade targets for a Franklin, Monfries, Ablett or Davey in three to six weeks’ time.

The Fragile Gun Rucks

Dean COX, WCE RUC: $387400, 120 BE, 95.5 avg
Troy SIMMONDS, RIC RUC: $369300, 140 BE, 78 avg
Big Cox, what a gun. He had managed an even Dream Team hundred against Carlton on Sunday and went and sat on the bench in the last quarter, with the crowd clapping him off for a job well done… but then he came back on and piled on another 23 valuable points in garbage time. That’s the sort of commitment that fantasy coaches love to see! Simmonds, on the other hand, is not very popular this season due to his early injuries, and his price will drop for at least a fortnight. He’s not going to get picked up by many with Cox, 211 and Lade all ripping it up.

The No-Brainer

Richard HADLEY, BRL CTR: $82300, -19 BE, 42.5 avg
Now you might think that Hadley would be a lock for Bubble Boy of the Week, but no, I’m not sold. The recent history of double knee reconstruction players, who are normally dirt cheap for fantasy coaches, is not good: Josh Francou and Nigel Lappin did not cover themselves with glory. There is such a good crop of rookies coming through that personally, I wouldn’t chance it on Hadley’s buggered knees to hold up for long enough to get you a big wad of cash. You have a squawking nest full of baby Pies this week, use them.

Bubble Boy of the Week

Super Bubble Mario Monkey Ball Boy

Jason ROE, BRL BAC: $261800, 94 BE, 58 avg
Roe’s Dream Team numbers don’t look that flash but his Super Coach figures are excellent. He’s an awesome pickup in Super Coach leagues this week due to the amount of contested balls he wins after opposition possessions. What, you didn’t think this was just a Dream Team blog did you?

Boys On The Bubble will be a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

The New Pluggers

Tom HAWKINS, GEE FWD: $82300, -75 B/E, 70.5 average.
Aaron EDWARDS, KAN FWD: $82300, -38 B/E, 52 average.
Matt CAMPBELL, KAN FWD: $69600, -24 B/E, 40 average.
Well, I suppose it was only Hawkins whom the Herald-Sun had a poll this week about whether he’d be better than Tony Lockett, but big things are also expected of A-Ron and The Other Matthew Campbell, No Not The One From The Telly. Hawkins looks great but Bomber Thompson did say he’d only play 10-11 games this year, and he’s ornery like that so be warned. The two Roo boys might end up earning you more money when you need it.

The New God

Travis VARCOE, GEE CTR: $82300, 10 B/E, 28 average.
Hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but I guess that’s in keeping with the number on his back. Slightly disappointing cash cow for your bench, at best, and not a good choice to trade for all you crying Andrew Browne owners. Maybe Not-Son Of God move will to Hawthorn and start starring there? One can only hope.

The Replacement Demons

Simon GODFREY, MEL CTR: $218900, 5 B/E, 85.5 average.
Paul WHEATLEY, MEL BAC: $226100, 32 B/E, 75 average.
Ben HOLLAND, MEL BAC: $182600, 23 B/E, 62 average.
Nathan D. BROWN, MEL BAC: $296500, 48 B/E, 95 average.
I suppose there would have to be some flow-on effect if you take out McLean, Johnstone, Sylvia, Neitz and Robertson from the Melbourne line-up… and it has mostly meant more work for the backline. Of these four, Godfrey looks like the best value-for-money bet though they are all pricey. Endee might be considered as a sneaky trade for Joel Bowden if you’re really feeling adventurous.

Plodders’ Purple Patches

Daniel GILMORE, FRE BAC, CTR: $216000, 16 B/E, 79 average.
Michael OSBORNE, HAW BAC: $210100, 27 B/E, 71 average.
Gilmore’s history is littered with injury and Osborne only played this week as a late call-up for Chance Bateman, so neither of these are smart punts. The Freo backline has been a bit of a disappointment fantasy wise since Michael Johnson got suspended, truth be told.

The Recovering Gun

Peter BURGOYNE, PTA CTR: $265100, 45 B/E, 84 average.
Nummy nummy num! That Port midfield is looking like it’s on another good thing this season, and instead of the likes of Symes and Pearce mopping up the cheapies it’s the old firm of the Burger Brothers and the Kornes Boys who are profiting. Unfortunately it’s a little too early to be upgrading the mid-tier centres but if you have to get rid of a Travis Johnstone or a Luke Ball then you could do a lot worse.

The Over-Achieving Mid-Tiers

Adam SCHNEIDER, SYD CTR: $248500, 45 B/E, 77.5 average.
Shannon BYRNES, GEE CTR: $274500, 47 B/E, 86.5 average.
I’m not sold on either of these. Byrnes played in two games where pretty much the whole match was garbage time. Schneider is a flukey player who tends to go missing for long periods for fantasy purposes. I’d keep an eye on Byrnes when Geelong loses

The Token Ruckman

Jason LAYCOCK, ESS RUC: $193100, 56 B/E, 49.5 average.
Only listed here because he’s the only ruckman on the bubble this week. He’d need to do better than his average to break even, which is not a good sign. Avoid like the plague, or at least a severe headcold.

Bubble Boy of the Week
Tim Schmidt, SYD CTR: $98200, -48 B/E, 63.5 average.
Ooh baby. Did you know Schmidt once racked up 52 possessions in a game as a junior? All good fantasy coaches do, and they’ve got their eye on him this week. His first week wasn’t much chop but a starring 88 DT points and two goals in round 3 has him top of the hit parade. Sydney need a new goalkicking midfielder and they might have one in the Schmidthouse. It seems like once you get picked for Sydney you never get dropped again, it’s the AFL version of Hotel California. Assuming that Paul Roos names his customary unchanged line-up this week, Schmidt is going to be in a lot of top 1000 teams.