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Cheney for president: 2009 Round 1 trades

Fantasy coaches are still stressing over injured duo Andrew Raines and Liam Anthony. Here’s a final word.

This issue was always going to be the biggest one of the week, but I’ve held off on blogging about it until now. You haven’t made your trades, yet, have you? Remember the Ricky Petterd Rule! No trading until at least Thursday teams, and preferably not until 5pm Friday when the Sunday teams are announced!

For those of you still reading, congratulations on your self control. Many of you, like me, will have watched as first Anthony and then Raines destroyed our squads. Raines in particular was the worst case scenario, hitting me right where it hurts in the defence where I had modified my all-premium back structure specifically to include him as a no-brainer mid-price improver. To be brutally honest, if you didn’t have Raines in your starting fantasy 22 this year you are a spud who got lucky. There, I said it. All of you who swerved past him and have been crowing about it in the comments can count yourselves as (a) extremely fortunate, and (b) deserving of scorn by Raines owners for being such poor judges of fantasy scoring potential.

Before we start, the question has to be asked: do you trade this week at all, or do you wait a week to see how the rookies are going? My take on this is rather conservative. We haven’t quite reached backopalypse proportions yet this year, but my feeling is that there are more shocks to come, particularly in the backline with all those Fremantle youngsters we have been loading up on. I don’t trust Stephen Hill or Nick Suban not to pick up a knock and miss a week or two, even if Mark Harvey shows faith in them at the selection table. They’re just the sort of thin, slim-hipped kids who can fall victim to “general soreness” (Mathew Stokes) or a random bump (Travis Tuck). My thought is that the Raines trade has to be made this week if you also have Anthony (especially in a non-playing mid bench combo with someone like Dayne Beams), because you would leave yourself open to more than two holes next week if more bad news comes down the highway, and you know what that means… donuts. Here are what I expect to be the most popular trades of the week.

Kyle CheneyRaines to Kyle Cheney. As I said on the Coaches Box this week, I’m not entirely convinced by Cheney’s debut game. He was given a run-with role on Daniel Wells for the first quarter or two and was taken to the ball a lot, something which I don’t expect he’ll benefit from in subsequent games. There’s no denying that he got a lot of rebound ball, though, and even marked a few long kicks from the opposition, which no doubt led to his stellar Super Coach score. The preseason knock on Cheney is that he’s just warming the seat for Matthew Whelan, who is listed as 1-2 weeks away with his calf injury. The other concern is Paul Wheatley, who was listed as a test for this week but didn’t get selected. With Simon Buckley‘s injury, though, this is the obvious trade and tens of thousands of coaches will make it this week.

Raines to Sam Gilbert. Looking over options for sideways trades, it’s hard to find any surefire improvers. I had Jarryn Geary myself last year and was happy with his output, but I’m usually wary of second-year players who played a lot of games in their debut season, as they can sometimes tire early as their young body struggles with the wear and tear of weekly senior footy. I’m not convinced with Ricky Petterd‘s round 1 score and would need to see at least one more week to confirm that his role is as lucrative as it looked last Saturday, and that it will continue on past days when Brad Miller and Matthew Bate are having barries. Gilbert requires a fair wad of cash to move up to from Raines in DT, though in SC it’s easier, and I think this might be more of a Super Coach pick anyway. The injury to Raphael Clarke cements Gilbert’s role alongside Farren Ray as halfback rebounder for the new-look Saints, with Brendan Goddard and Jason Gram scampering through the corridor.

Anthony to Andy Otten. I would recommend this trade only to owners of Travis Tuck (which includes me :'( ), even though his AC joint injury is only going to put him out for one match. Otten’s spot in the Crows 22 looks reasonably safe to me, with Jared Petrenko the 22nd man and not much waiting in the wings to replace either of them, other than Robert Shirley who is in Neil Craig’s bad books at the moment. It always tugs at the heartstrings to burn two trades in week 1, but I think this trade in combination with Raines to a rookie would be two good decisions.

Anthony to Patrick Dangerfield. For many of the same reasons as the Otten trade. Craig has a weird public relationship with Dangerfield, knocking his Geelong coaches for presenting him in an unfit state in the preseason, and bagging him all through the NAB, but picking him out of the blue for round 1. I suspect it has all been a ruse, and Craig has been planning all along to enter the Danger zone for an extended period.

Now please, no more schadenfreude in the comments. Those of you who have Raines, Anthony, Tuck, Matthew Spangher, Sam Butler, Stokes or any other prominent player missing this week, tell me what you’re going to do and why.

186 Comments

  1. Mr Plough

    April 5, 2009 at 1:35 am

    Trent Hentschel – did I mention he’s one of my forwards – hopefully he’ll be ok for next week?

  2. benno

    April 5, 2009 at 5:59 am

    that’s right let’s start all the trade talk all over again. ottens out, but reserve jesse white scores a ton in SC. bench ottens and rely on white for a while? how long? and white will rarely have such soft ruck opposition as hawthorn

  3. Bo

    April 5, 2009 at 6:40 am

    2298 for sc, wow im even a spud at writing down numbers. Should change my name. BTW enjoy hentschell and ottens.

  4. Heater

    April 5, 2009 at 10:43 am

    Robinson’s poor form & fantasy scores in this game will have a few people thinking! I reckon Andy Ottens looks pretty good now; appears to be more consistent. Dangerfield alos looks the goods. Anyone else???

    Glad I left Beams as an aemergency; his 82 SC points will cover T.Tuck nicely.

  5. mog_dog00

    April 6, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    i swapped anthony 4 beams.. that about it!

  6. Brent

    April 6, 2009 at 5:11 pm

    Butler -> Zarahakis

  7. MsHighkick

    April 6, 2009 at 6:02 pm

    Looks like Tuck’ll be back next week but Hentschel out for a month. Any word how ling Anthony’s out for?

  8. Nick

    April 6, 2009 at 7:11 pm

    Ottens isn’t hurt that badly, just a strain, don’t worry too much.

  9. steve

    April 6, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    what are you guys going to now that Nathan Bock is out indefinatley ??? Big decisions to be made

  10. Adam

    April 6, 2009 at 9:00 pm

    Hey Monty, how come you have not even considered Shannon Hurn for a straight swap with Raines? He is averaging just under 100 and is roughly the same price? Is there something I am missing about this kid? He looks like a gun to me with a booming kick.. will probably be WCE quarter back for year i reckon…

  11. Gonzo

    April 7, 2009 at 12:25 am

    If you are prepared to wear a donut at this stage of the year your are a fool. This sort of loser talk plays right into the hands of seasoned DT vetrans who quite frankly have seen it all before.

    I have played and lost grand finals with 3 trades in the bank. So i hung onto 3 trades, big deal. You do what you need to do, which is admit you were probably on smack when you picked 3 rookie backmen andrew walker in the first place and spend some serious time in front of the mirror.

    Then trade anyone you can for Goddard

  12. Disco (UK)

    April 7, 2009 at 2:22 am

    Shmoddard.

  13. josh

    April 7, 2009 at 9:15 am

    i am going to trade anthony for a.joseph to obtain 11k then i upgrade spangher to s.hurn

  14. josh

    April 7, 2009 at 9:21 am

    and i am going to keep raines

  15. Lee

    April 7, 2009 at 10:53 am

    Hurn? Are you guys serious? He averaged about 50 for the past two seasons and by the end of this year he’ll have averaged about the same for this season too, regardless of how well he went in Rd1 and Rd2.

    Josh – SPANGHER??? How did he ever get into your team in the first place? He’s a total spud. You might as well start planning for 2010!

  16. Peter G

    April 7, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Gonzo, if you can’t cover Raines without trading, you’re no DT gun.

    Crawl back under that rock, pal. Anyone who finishes with 3 trades and doesn’t win the whole comp is a fool.

  17. hamish

    April 7, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    im getting brain lake in my team before he becomes premium

  18. Frank

    April 7, 2009 at 12:43 pm

    I have heard snippets about Gilbert from St.Kilda and he appears to be a very sensible choice for a trade with Raines – if the extra cash is there. I reckon the hype on Pettard and Cheney is all a bit too much, hence the wait on this trade unitl this week – even though i had to use Hill as my 7th back.

    Gilbert for Raines? Is he worth the hype and will he continue his solid early season form? Thoughts?

  19. Narkee

    April 7, 2009 at 1:16 pm

    @ Monty

    Do you know if Moss has been elevated from Hawthorns rookie list??

  20. Tim

    April 7, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    @ Frank. I agree on Cheney. I don’t think many people have actually given it any thought. He’s just been mentioned a few times, is the right price and the right position and now everyone just assumes Cheney is the ‘cert’. I think he got most of his points last week in the final qtr (?).

    Prior to Grimes’ injury I doubt many people had even heard of Cheney, let alone considered him a DT prospect. How many people picking him have considered how safe his spot is come May.

    The Cheney thing smacks of ‘forum bandwagon’ and might just end up being another headache in 3-4 week’s time for many.

  21. Brad

    April 7, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    @ Tim,

    All extremely good points you make regarding Cheney, however i would be interested to see some of your opinions on what you think is the best way to handle the Raines injury?
    Are you agreeing with Frank that a sideways trade to Gilbert is a better outcome than a downgrade to Rance/Cheney plus plenty of cash to make an upgrade elsewhere?

  22. Peter G

    April 7, 2009 at 5:45 pm

    Tim, I’m a Dees player sponsor, and I find your point badly made. Cheney was slated for round 1 with the Dees on the back of his NAB cup performances and pre-season and he was touted heavily on this blog and others well before Grimes went down. Refer cmiggles33’s rather humourous endorsements.

    Coupled with a series of Dees backline injuries and re-injuries (Grimes / Garland / Wona / Wona / Wheatley / Whelan / Martin) and his excellent disposal while on wells, we see him named starting in the centre in Round 2. I don’t see him fading away without getting his 7 necessary games for him to plateau and ‘cash cow’.

    Furthermore, his Q spread was 6 / 18 / 19 / 10, and not all in the last quarter as you supposed. Seems he got more points when the Dees were under the pump.

    If you see a problem with him, fine, but please articulate a valid reason and don’t condescendingly refer to others on the site as bandwagon fantasy coaches, particularly whilst employing incorrect statistics and inferior football knowledge.

  23. Brad

    April 7, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    @ Peter G

    Very eloquently put mate.
    You have sold me, Raines for Cheney, Wells for Dal Santo.

  24. Camo

    April 7, 2009 at 7:18 pm

    Option 1 – Raines out, in Cheney. He plateaus at approx 270,000 week 6. Downgrade to rookie and take cash. 2 trades required.

    Option 2 – Hold onto Raines. He comes back in 4 weeks and plateaus at approx 270,000 in week 12. Downgrade to rookie and take same amount of cash. 1 trade required.

    But hey don’t let me compromise your decision to trade when the temptation for cash/points far outweighs the potential to keep trades and avoid the depths of DT oblivion.

  25. Heater

    April 7, 2009 at 9:18 pm

    Its interesting to read the comments to trade or not to trade.

    Last year at this stage I traded Schnieder & Pearce for Ablett & Wellingham. It was the best move I made all season. I got my gun skipper each week and a few weeks later Wellingham played and made me a heap of cash. When I eventually traded Wellingham it helped me get Bartel in Rd12 or around that.

    So all this scary talk about trading is just that, scary talk. If you trade now and it benefits your side then do it. Naturally that depends on who you trade (getting rid of Hodge now is madness for instance or trading sideways is not always wise) but if you think your trade just may be the difference then bite the bullet and do it.

    Certainly helped my side as I went on to lose only 2 games and win the flag in my league….

  26. Adam

    April 7, 2009 at 9:38 pm

    Are you kidding Josh. Hurn averaged more than Gibbs in 07 (67) and also finished higher than him in the rising star… He was out most of last year with a busted leg!! The guy is a gun, look for this year to be a break out one for him.

  27. Brad

    April 7, 2009 at 10:34 pm

    I cant bring myself to pull the trigger on this one.

    My thinking is Raines to Cheney and with the spare cash Wells, why oh why, to Dal Santo or Judd, talking s/c.

    Can someone please tell me to either do it or tell me i am crazy and need to give Wells mor time??

  28. Brad

    April 7, 2009 at 10:42 pm

    Latest injury updates on afl.com showing:

    Raines 2 weeks
    Anthony 2-3 weeks
    Grimes 1-2 weeks

    Are Raines and Anthony worth hanging on to if they are only 2-3 weeks away?
    Raines is probably doubtful but Anthony might be worth keeping and saving a trade. Nathan Van Berlo recovered very quickly from his pre season stress fractures in his foot so maybe Anthony is closer to palying than first thought.

  29. erjfc 11

    April 8, 2009 at 12:42 am

    brad
    keep on to them if u want to win your league.
    but if you’re going for a good overall position trade them.
    raines for gilbert seems pretty obvious though.

  30. Flyersman

    April 8, 2009 at 1:40 am

    The back line is a concern so this week….

    OUT – Raines, Hill
    IN – Houlihan, Rance

    Raines – you take the risk that 4 weeks out becomes 8, he handballs too much and Houlihab is racking them up so you make some big $ this week, and Hill (Freo) will need a run so back to the WAFL for a few weeks, pre season form does not always mean you’re ready, his points mean little return for your investment.

    That leaves Anthony to stay on the bench with Hurley despite the injuries, you have a backup in Beams and now Rance!

  31. Tim

    April 8, 2009 at 9:19 am

    @ Peter G.

    You’re quoting quarter-by-quarter stats from round 1. I was referring to round 2 stats. My stats are correct (well, I’m quoting Monty from a different post here), we just misunderstood each other.

    Fair point on him being more prominent pre-season than I indicated.

    Tell me – with Strauss, Whelan, Buckley, Grimes, Bell and Wonaeamirri all available within two weeks (yes I know some play in different roles)…but with these 6 available for selection in the Dees 22, do you see Cheney in the Dees 22? If so do you see him getting meaningful game time? Meaningful DT points? Why did he score so few points in the first 3/4s last weekend?

    I worry that in 2-3 weeks, Cheney just becomes another necessary trade to fix a hole…you can’t turn over players every few weeks and make average $, you need to them to play and use the trades in the second half of the year.

  32. Daniel

    April 8, 2009 at 10:23 am

    First time poster, 3-4 month time veiwer….

    Firstly, everyones posts pre-lock out was helpful to create some sort of team with half decent players hehe.

    My theory is simple….dont be a spud picking ppl who are going to get injured to start with and those players which you have chosen which did get injured (Ie Anthony, Hurley) or have under performed (Ie Hoili) Burn them early and reep in the $ rewards. After your team is servicable then save your trades i think.

    Im considering keeping raines and henchell tho

    What do ppl think about burning like 3 trades early?

    Dan

  33. Peter G

    April 8, 2009 at 10:31 am

    Tim, in terms of when to keep and when to trade, I’ll refer you to this excellent graph Monty posted in January:

    http://www.fanfooty.com.au/blog/2009/01/25/when-to-reap-your-rookies/

    I believe that Cheney will get at least 6 games, particularly as several of the players you mentioned will struggle to come straight back in, or will take longer (i.e. Wona’s out to 4 or 5). A couple more high scores and hopefully he can be offloaded at 250K for a 160K upgrade to a midranger, or hold the cash.

    Irrespective, Cheney shouldn’t be playing on anyone’s field. He’s a solid bench cash cow / emergency.

  34. rowshow

    April 8, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    Hill is gonna get another game this week harvey said he will stick with him. Just heard on radio

  35. m0nty

    April 8, 2009 at 4:04 pm

    Keep your pants on fellas, I’m about to blog.

  36. Daniel

    April 8, 2009 at 4:51 pm

    Im going to keep him in because he is god at sc :)