Dean Laidley is one of many coaches who love to sabotage fantasy hopes by dropping kids too early.
We’ve all been there. 2007 was one example: Lachie Hansen had just had an excellent NAB Cup, he was named in the Kangaroos team for round 1, then… two paltry Dream Team scores of 21 in each of the first two games with painfully limited time on ground (TOG), then shipped back to the VFL until after the 2007 finals series had started. Or you could take 2008: Scott D. Thompson had solid outings in the NAB series, named for round 1, then… dropped after one DT score of 37 with limited TOG, then not seen again until rounds 6 and 7, and then dropped again until a fourth and last game in round 21.
Is it any wonder that we call North Melbourne coach Dean Laidley the Fantasy Antichrist?
This year we have a new crop of rookies, and Laidley isn’t the only one we need to worry about. Dean Bailey at Melbourne and Neil Craig at Adelaide are both offering us tasty rookie treats, but I suspect we’re being fattened up for the cooking pot, if not the fiery depths of some lower hell. Heck, even at Hawthorn I am not putting any faith in Alistair Clarkson to commit to youth like he did at the start of 2008 with Cyril Rioli, Cameron Stokes and Jarryd Morton. Here’s some kids I am becoming increasingly wary of.
Nathan Grima - North fans all seem to think he’s a lock for the round 1 side, if not for the majority of the year. I remain unconvinced that he’s even in the team until I see Laidley put his name down on the official teamsheet on Thursday night. Even then, Grima’s place seems to be predicated on a long-foreshadowed move of Michael Firrito into the midfield, and I don’t trust that either. You just know that the worst case scenario is that Grima starts getting beaten early, Zac Dawson style, so that Firrito has to occupy the goalsquare to rescue the situation, and Grima will leave grime all over our back benches.
Liam Anthony - The fact that Laidley has been talking him up in the press makes me even more fearful than if he had been shutting up about him. This smacks to me of a typical Laidley stunt. Of course he has to talk up his kids, North needs more members desperately so they’re forced to wheel out the coach to give the fans some hope. Whether this translates into a consistent run of selection in the first eight games is an entirely different matter. It’s the Fantasy Antichrist, you sinners! Make the sign of the cross and repent!
Jack Ziebell - Anyone who is starting Jay-Z in round 1 has to have cojones of steel. You just know he’s going to be named in the extended bench for the Sunday game for promotional purposes, no matter whether Laidley intends to play him or not, so you will have exactly zero idea if he’s going to play or not. If your forward bench emergency is someone like Scott Gumbleton, Wade Thompson or Neville Jetta you could be setting yourself up for a zero without any assurances. Just remember Jay-Z’s sage Dream Team advice: “99 problems, but a bench ain’t one.”
Jared Petrenko - He has become wildly popular as an 8th or 9th fantasy back, and the news today that Graham Johncock will miss round 1 due to a family bereavement will lock Petrenko into the round 1 Crows team. Consider this, however: Petrenko’s spot is either in the forward line in place of Jason Porplyzia (if Jarrhan Jacky is not used there) or in the back line instead of Brad Symes. Porps is due back by round 2 or 3, while Symes is due a week or two after that. With Neil Craig’s historical thriftiness with rookie TOG, can we expect Petrenko to earn enough coin in a maximum of five weeks to justify buying him? Of course you could get lucky, as owners of Bernie Vince did last year when a rash of injuries gave him far more TOG than Craig would have liked to allow. It’s a big risk nonetheless.
Andy Otten - Yes, his preseason numbers have been excellent. “Demands selection”, they say. Like Petrenko, however, Otten could be squeezed out early by returning senior players, particularly the aforementioned Symes. Last year was an aberration with Vince, Porplyzia and David Mackay all representing excellent rookie value. The norm with Neil Craig sides is to stay away from their kids. Without evidence of another injury glut down at Westlakes, you have to look at Otten’s price premium over a Dayne Beams or Mitch Robinson with a hard eye.
Kyle Cheney - Another kid who, while he may very well play the first couple of rounds, doesn’t have any assurances after that. His spot in the Demons 22 is reserved for Matthew Whelan, who could return from his calf injury as early as round 2. Be warned.
Brendan Whitecross - A solid last outing on a half-back flank in the NAB series has him penciled in for the round 1 Hawks team. Unfortunately, he may not last past the return of Rick Ladson, currently scheduled for somewhere between rounds 2 and 5. Best case scenario is that he is eventually replaced by Xavier Ellis some time around round 6. His place in the Hawthorn 22 is most at risk.
I’m pretty sure that I’ve just named at least two of your squad of 30 in Dream Team and Super Coach, if not three or four. How worried are you about these players being dropped in the first six rounds before the usual cash cow culling cut-off point? Are you choosing safer, more boring options like Mitchell Brown or (shudder) Zac Dawson to sacrifice upside for selection consistency? Tell me in the comments.
are there any other rookies aside from suban broughton and petroltanko?
I’ve got both the Kanga boys Ziebell and Anthony… crazy right? I have Mitch Robinson on my bench so will get a good idea whether he will play to cover Anthony, and I have Mitch Brown benching it to cover Ziebell. I think that’ll be safe enough right?
Monty your giving us plenty of advice as to which rookies are not likely to do well and which ones wont play….which is scaring the s**t out of us
how about some advice on the rookies that are likely yo get consistent games and to do well…please haha
ROOS are going to win the premiership this year
Ziebell for brownlow
everyone knows it
monty hawks are poo
I’ve got Petrenko, Otten, Anthony and Ziebell..
This article hasn’t done anything to boost my DT confidence!
Great article Monty
Those devils Laidley Bailey,and Craig,they are the ones we gamble with not the rookies.Presuming i have Zeibell, petrenko and Cheyney as starters in my team, names we are all now familiar with.If these 3 cronies tease us with thier extended benches, and god behold they were to be late exclusions,you can kiss mine and most D/T coaches chances goodbye.BASICALLY stay way clear from these 3 devils.
I am a sinner and have broken the Laidley rule. I have Ziebell playing because I do not know who else to put as #7 forward. However, I am too scared to have Anthony as well, so I have gone Rich and Robinson on the centre bench. I saw the kid play and unlike other years, NM have not had such a talented kid as ready as Ziebell to play round 1. I have Gummby on the bench, which is only based on a cheap option, and Yarran who is my emergency. I think between Yarran and Ziebell, I should be safe for at least the first couple of weeks to field a forward line. Does anyone have any better forward options in mind?
I know this is a little unrelated, but being at rookie price, with J Grimes from Melbourne injured, who will take his place? What’s Petterd’s chances of playing round 1, and/or the rest of the year?
hahaha awesome work in the photo editing
A very interesting post Mr. M. I’d be interested to hear more from people about Wade Thompson’s spot and his credibility
isnt gumby injured??
Ziebell’s probably the riskiest starter since the McPrawn Cocktail. Better to start Hentschel for $4k more but a guaranteed place.
i have ziebell, anthony, petrenko on my bench, pretty confident
have only got petrenko on that list haha- yes more boring options like Mitch Brown
does anyone else think that taylor walker is a safer option than hentschel. or is it just me. i cant bring myself to take the risk on hentschel.
u sure porp is that far off playing monty? according to the people on bigfooty he finished with 20 touches 1 goal in the sanfl.
Monty that jay-z reference is the funniest thing ive ever heard.
Jeez monty you have put on the afterburners in the last two days. Good stuff!
I’m pretty sure porps could be right to go in Rd 1, from what I’ve heard from the Bloods players I know he played very well, got belted around but felt fine after the match.
Just what they told me though
It’s Monday afternoon. I have had a long and tiring day, and think it’s time to treat myself to a break with a little FanFooty. And what do I get? Headaches about my bench all over the f-ing field. Thanks a lot, Monty
Lol at the Jay-Z jokes, hope that nickname catches on!
What about when Laidley played Matt Riggio for the opening two rounds of 07 and then dropped him for the remainder of the season? He did teach me a valuable lesson though - how important your ninth defeder is not.
I’m surprised you didn’t mention Freo at all. Mark Harvey doesn’t exactly have a good record either. He started R1 without Palmer last year, then played funny buggers with him at the end of the year. Now there’s a trio of Freo first year defenders that everyone is picking, all while Harvey is supposedly moving Gilmore, Hasleby and Tarrant into the backline.
Freo’s my tip for the spoon, mostly because I think Harvey’s completely bonkers. I don’t trust him at all with my fantasy players either.
I think sometimes people go a bit far with the “Laidley not playing kids theory” Thompson and Hansen are both key position players and as we know, along with ruckmen, they take more time to develop than smaller midfield types that are ready-made. I am very confident with Anthony in my team and the only reason i dont have Ziebell is because he is 40,000 more than a based-price rookie
how does everybody rate beams vs robinson vs anthony for an 8th midfielder behind rich? atm im sitting with beams but may change to robinson if robinson’s named to debut rd 1 and beams isn’t. don’t really want to take the risk with anthony on the kangas extended bench…
Just when I thought my team was settled up pops Monty with another literary gem!
@ Pete. (and others, if they believe my nonsense). Whichever bench rookies you go with, play out a ‘what-if’ in your head pre-Thursday night teams. ie. If you pick Beams, what will will you do if he isn’t selected but Robinson is? etc.
But think deeply, beyond round 1 - Beams looks set to get his share of games this year, just not sure when. But Robinson is a decent chance to be picked Rd 1 given the Blues have 3-4 senior players out for a week or 3. So does a round 1 start for Robinson mean much? Enough to change your team? Base picks like this around the larger variables, not just this week’s team sheets.
I think the best rookies have been named. If these guys cant get a game i doubt that any rookie can.
Besides maybe hurley - Hill (both commanding a big premium)i doubt there will be any rookie backs playing for reasonable amount of matches.
great Jay-Z reference
Petrenko will be straight out the side as soon as Porp (likely to play round 1) and Symes (likely to be back by round 3) are back in the team. Leaving him hanging on 2 games not even squeezing out some valuable cash cow goodness.
Are you trying to depress me Monty and make me lose sleep? First you mention Hentschel in the most over-rated players and now you’re telling me that my rookies won’t play (or will and it will be brief)…
At least you didn’t mention Stephen Hill. Hang on didn’t Harvey not play Palmer in Rd 1 last year… oh no…
ouch, i have a lot of those players.
anyway 926548 is my new league. me and my mate are good dream teamers averaging around 1900 a week last year and are looking for 14 quality people to join us in our search to be the most competitive league. please join if you think you are capable of scoring well. Thanks all
Porplyzia will play Round 1 and so will Rutten. Van Berlo will be back R2 for sure and Symes soon after. That’s four senior players which demand selection - select Crows rookies at your peril!
Just remember Jay-Z’s sage Dream Team advice: “99 problems, but a bench ain’t one.”
Awesome stuff haha.
Cheers charlie, yeah thats when the guessing game comes into play.
Jay-Z - 99 problems….champagne humour
Andy Otten will still play though as he is taking Bassets spot who isnt about to pop out of retirement!!
Ratten’s record last year was worse than any. Pfieffer, Edwards, Hartlett (admittedly susp), Hampson, Armfield, Anderson all played for a couple and got dumped. Hardly envokes confidence in Robinson, Garlett, Yarren or Jacobs getting consistent games.
Just heard Bomber T on SEN say that Simon Hogan will get 15 games this year at least. Given the way that the cats flick the ball around that is good enough for me. espcially if he is named on wednesday
I think every possible rookie has been in and out of my side over the past month!! Thanks a lot monty for dragging this all up again.
The only rookie i now have any confidence in is hill but being a collingwood supporter beams will play and play a lot. Dont expect malthouse to bring him out to under a 60k size crowd though. When he bloods a kid he does it in style. Throws them into an anzac or queens birthday match and sees what they have with all eyes watching.
One word answers:
Dal Santo or Selwood?
Based on Monty’s read,and some of the more astute comments,culling season will begin at round 4.So get out your shot guns and start cleaning the barrel,this is going to be a blood bath.
Dal Santo is in ripper form and this is his year, strong chance for the brownlow
No question Brad - Selwood. Big Dal is clearly no going to get any better whilst Selwood is most definately on the way up whilst also being cheaper than Selwood.
Dal Santo doesn’t know the meaning of a hard ball either - like most of his team mates. No heart!
On another note I heard Neil Craig on 927 this morning and he singled out Taylor Walker as the most impressive and from that interview I think out of all of them (Petrenko, Otten, Cook and Sloane) he would play most this year. Similar to Tippet last year I reckon.
Bomber and Hamish, thanks for helping me settlethat one..things are much clearer now…lol
Good news on Tex as well Bomber.
He is a cult figure in Adelaide already without even playing a H&A game yet!!
One questions - pick 2 out of Thompson, Walker and Hogan for forward line bench players?
I would think Thompson and Walker out of those 3 options, Walker is a certainty and elevated players are elevated for a reason, i am not convinced that Hogan will get any games early on.
Do you already have Brown from West Coast on your bench??
Has anybody heard anything about Yarran? According to the West (not very reliable) he won’t be playing against Richmond. I suppose we’ll get to see on Wednesday if he is named, but has anyone heard anything?
Lovepelican,
According to The Herald Sun today Yarran will spend several weeks in the VFL before making his debut.
Ha ha @ Bomber saying no StKilda guys have heart. I would think Ball, Hayes and Riewoldt just for a start may prove that theory incorrect.
G’day Jake,
What do you think about Dal Santo v Selwood?
I have absolutely no doubt Selwood is going to be a GUN and in my opion go past ABC, if not this year but next, but i still think his starting price is very very high for a 20 year old who is surrounded by the Cats current guns.
ablett, bartel, selwood midfield
is that a good idea to have all 3 in the same team? thoughts
Jack: for their individual scoring potential, sure get all three. I would expect them all to average over 100, in the case of ablett and bartel, history says 110 is achievable. The problem is the cost, and how that effects the rest of your team. You could swap an Ablett or Bartel down to another quality mid, and save around 100K to use elsewhere.
Monty - not trying to be pushy - but Version 8.0 will be out BEFORE the season starts right ?
Much more faith in the Melb rookies this year considering wins are irrelevant! Melbourne have enough poor players for Dick Cheney to hang around post Whelan! Jay-Z is the only north player worth risking… and only just
Ziebell for brownlow
Simonoz: I’m thinking a Wednesday night edition so that with the official Carlton and Richmond teams you get the other 14 teams as well, if only unofficial.
Does anyone know when Ballantyne will be fit for the Dockers? I really like the look of him and if he will be available in rounds 2 or 3 I will put him in now to save a trade
Hey Monty since the afl site is a moral to crash come late thursday,i feel like i am a sitting duck and at the mercy of the gods (Laidley & Co).Could you do me a favour and say a prayer.
I do agree with the Rookie “Restriction” theory of Laidley.
Jesse… just skimming, but is that the second time you’ve said Ziebell for brownlow???
I’m torn between laughing and spewing… :S
I do have him in my team however (lol) with Taylor Walker as Em. (confident with statistics pointing to him over Hentschel only backed up by what Bomber said about Neil Craig on 927.
Andy Otten - who has looked very solid and Adelaide are re-shaping, must get games. Beams as Em.
Although Presti is a terrible dt player, as an emergency he is a certain 20-40 points for only $20K more. Better than a big fat 0.
Grima as 9th defender.
Couldn’t help but slot in Sidebottom (8th mid) but considering Rich… just unsure about each player’s game time potential.
And… As i need to get rid of GumbyTonne (as 9th fwd) due to injury im a little iffy on Mitchell Brown (WCE) & Dzufer (BL) … thoughts?
Mitchell Brown is averaging 82 SC points over 3 games (60, 106 and 81) in the pre-season. He’s locked for sure.
bomber, where did you find stats like that of Mitchell brown. Also for other other nab challenge games? Thanks
i too would like that info Bomber…
where the???
Lets not worry tooo much about the rookie backs, if you throw another 100k at that problem you are kissing 25 - 30 points away elsewhere.
And me also please Bomber, cough it up mate!
Some of us got access to champion data stats for all NAB games…….
Tipping you are not going to share then Sox?
Guys just go to the herald sun AFL page and its in there were you can download a xls spreadsheet with all the shit on there:
“Your guide: Supercoach NAB scores”
to easy!!!!!!!!!!
There are now two places you can find a link to the NAB challenge champion data stats (that I know of), one is a post on a popular online afl forum, and the other is the news site that’s been posting SC stats for the NAB cup (although they’re doing a good job of keeping it hidden…it was much easier to find this morning).
They’ll probably email the stats to all SuperCoach players tomorrow like they did last year anyway
Or do what hippo said…so much for fun
haha i do like your way better, like a little treasure hunt, should not have been so obvious
Inside info from Westlakes, Petrenko is a now go. Not injured, quote “team balance”. Maybe a horses for courses type player planned for this bloke.
You beauty Hippo.
Got em. Cheers
i have had the pre-season stats each week for ages now. you guys need to try harder to look
@korza, is that Petrenko is ‘now a go’ or a ‘no go’?? And you realise that if you’re wrong you will be hunted down by irate DTers
.. here here!
I think this article is very suspect.
Liam Anthony = ball magnet. will play and will dominate, get him in your starting side!
thats rubbish leigh
Play Petrenko at your own peril.He is definately a no go.
so hogan seems a solid pick?
may not play round one but 15 games sounds very handy….
wade thompson or jeff garlett being elevated yet?
Thanks for the heads up Monty on V8.0….
Oz
is dale thomas a good buy?
I’d love some opinions on the following scenarios
1- Krakouer in forward line, Bartel and T. Tuck in mid
or
2- T Walker in forward line, Swan and K Cornes in mid
thoughts?
alex rance is a definite starter for round 1! herald sun says terry wallace will hit the ground running with a raines,mcmahon,bowden,rance backline which will can run carlton off their feet
haha “99 problems but a bench ain’t one”
i’m just gonna run the risk with these rookies (Petrenko, Ziebell, Anthony, Cheney, Broughton, Hill).
I’d rather pick these guys and have cash in the bank than choose the likes of Geary, Dempsey, Hentschel, etc. and be in the same situation. A couple of zeros in the opening rounds isn’t gonna hurt me, I’m pretty sure the major prize is out of my reach.
ziebell wont get many games because look who the coach is ….. Dean Laidley the Fantasy Antichrist
its amazing how the fantasy antichrist coaches the best dreamteamer in the game! boomer harvey
BBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRR. He will win the brownlow easy this year
An article has just been released on Herald Sun Superfooty website claiming Anthony and Ziebell have been confirmed for Sunday’s game