Perhaps it’s an illusion, but it seems to me that the consensus view from pundits about the order of the kids picked in the first round of the 2008 AFL draft is more set than ever - which makes early planning for your 2009 fantasy team in the Fanplanner more interesting. I’m not just talking here about phantom/mock drafts done on forums like BigFooty, but pronouncements by AFL clubs about their drafting intentions, plus predictions made by respected insiders such as Emma Quayle.
Quayle, whose credibility apart from being an experienced journalist for the Age is the research she did for her book The Draft, made her predictions last year and nailed each one of the top ten, albeit that she had two or three options for some picks. This year her thoughts as expressed on radio SEN are as follows:
1. Jack Watts [Melbourne]
2. Nick Naitanui [West Coast]
3. Daniel Rich, Stephen Hill or Tyrone Vickery [Fremantle]
4. Vickery, Hamish Hartlett, Hill or Chris Yarran [Port Adelaide]
5. Yarran, Rich or Hill [Essendon]
6. Michael Hurley or Hartlett [Carlton]
7. Jack Ziebell, Hartlett or Steele Sidebottom [Brisbane]
8. Hartlett, Vickery or Ziebell [Richmond]
9. Lewis Johnston or Jordan Lisle [North Melbourne]
10. Phil Davis or Jackson Trengove [Adelaide]
The top two are pretty much set in stone everywhere you look, and few think that Freo will go past Rich, as he is just the sort of player they need to fill out their undermanned midfield. Port have already made noises about drafting Vickery, though with Choco Williams you never know what’s going to come out of his box of chocolates. After that it’s anyone’s guess on the order of the next four players: Hill, Hurley, Hartlett and Ziebell will probably be the four taken from 5-8 though. Beyond 8 it’s even more wide open, though Geelong has already staked its claim for Tom Swift and Freo’s second pick looks likely to be set aside for a small forward to replace Jeff Farmer, with Neville Jetta and Michael Walters in their sights.
How much of this is relevant to fantasy coaches? Everyone’s getting on board the Rich bandwagon, so there’s no news there. If you’re prepared to pay top draft dollar for NicNat and/or Vickery then good luck to you, though there’s no guarantees on them getting games with two established ruckmen at both clubs. Watts, who is in a fair few plan teams, is finishing year 12 next year so temper your expectations, as you should have this year with Scott Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield.
In many ways the main fantasy interest is outside the top 10 this year, as clubs seem to be laser-focused on talls. The shining example of Hawthorn’s 2004 draft stares at wannabe-Pelchens in the face, no doubt, as the November sunlight glints off the premiership medals of Jordan Roughead and Lance Franklin. Meanwhile, fantasy coaches know that smalls are where it’s at for fantasy value in first year players, so they’re looking at who picks up Yarran, Sidebottom, Jetta, Walters, Sam Blease, Nick Suban and Rhys O’Keefe. It looks like most of those players will escape the price premium put on top 10 picks by VirtualSports, making them even more tasty.
It should also be reiterated that rookies are going to become more important this year with the relaxation of rules on rookie elevation, such that rookies like Ranga Ediriwickrama could become much more popular than most draftees with fantasy coaches as midseason pickups.
More analysis of the draft when it happens, of course!
Great write up, and an interesting point on Watts, didn’t know he was doing year 12 this year. I was a bit disappointed with Scott Selwood last year and have picked up Dangerfield this year. Having said that he is playing for Melbourne which sohuld make it easier to get games, and if he is #1 pick hopefully Melbourne will play him regardless.
Certainly agree with smaller players in first year. Womaemirri and Rioli were great last year.
Freo could take Vickery with Warnock leaving, but i would still think they would go Rich as he is from WA.
Naitanui is an interesting one. Obviously Cox is a walk up start in all 16 teams, which then makes it interesting in a Naitanui V Seaby contest (is this why Seabby was looking for a trade earlier? could he see the writing on the wall?).
Either way, I will certainly be buying whoever Freo take Vickery or Rich thinking that he will get games.
Surely Port will not take Yarren. We have PLENTY of small forwards already. Ebert, Krakouer, Gray and Matthew Westoff just to name a few.
“The shining example of Hawthorn’s 2004 draft stares at wannabe-Pelchens in the face, no doubt, as the November sunlight glints off the premiership medals of Jordan Roughead and Lance Franklin.”
Beautiful, monty, beautiful
I think Seaby was just pissed off about the lack of oppurtunity last year but that might have been a factor too i guess.
I really want to see Port take Yarran! Just because I think that will allow me to say “you could have had Vickery” at Port games for years to come lol.
My top 10:
1.J.Watts*
2.N.Natanui*
3.D.Rich*
4.T.Vickery*
5.J.Ziebell*
6.M.Hurley
7.H.Hartlett* (hope it’s Hill instead)
8.S.Sidebottom*
9.S.Hill
10.L.Johnston
*in my team
Couldn’t fit Yarran in there! I don’t think NMK would want him considering they have Campbell/Thomas already and I dont see him going top6.
As for the Crows’ pick, I think the only two players they will consider taking ahead of a key forward are Hartlett and Sidebottom (assuming my top6 are long gone).
After that it’s between Johnston and Trengrove imo.
Just clearing something up: you’re the same Chad from DTtalk right, Chad?
Yeah, I think Sidebottom is the most likely one to upset the applecart. Strange that Brisbane is the only one Emma thinks is considering him. Just shows how hot clubs are on talls this year that a small mid can kick 10 goals in the TAC Cup grannie and barely be considered in the top 10 of the draft.
NM could conceivably take Yarran to replace Harvey. They have plenty of talls from previous drafts. It would be terrible for fantasy if Laidley did make that happen… which makes it a certainty. >:(
XztatiK i really dont think we will take Yarren. The question over Vickery is his knee obviously, pick 4 is the highest pick we have ever had, we are the only club in the AFL to have never had a top 3 draft pick.
Yeh i do a fair bit of work for DT Talk. I have the same rookies as you at the moment.
The crows normally go out of their way not to get a good key forward, they haven’t had one in the past 10 years (and coincidentally haven’t won a flag in the last 10 years).
The problem with Yarren going to north though monty is my hatred of dean laidley. I have someone from every club except north melbourne. Although at the moment you have Yarren going to hawthorn and i dont think he will get games there.
Carlton would probably be the best fit for Yarran from a fantasy perspective, they’re light on for small forwards. I feel like Essendon have too many of those types as it is, as do Port.
This article predicts Hill to Essendon and Yarran to Brisbane. Jay Clark hasn’t got a 100% record but both would be good fits. particularly Yarran.
“The crows normally go out of their way not to get a good key forward, they haven’t had one in the past 10 years (and coincidentally haven’t won a flag in the last 10 years).”
lol Before you rub some Pav in my face… we’ve actually been trying to get one lately
(Tippo, Walker, Sellar). Plus Craigy has said they would like a KF with pick 10.
Yeh Sellar and Tippett look like GREAT key forwards
I reckon the Crows will go with Lewis Johnson at pick 10 who is a key forward. Be interesting to see the crows forward line this year. Obviously Burton wont be there for 3/4 of the season at best. So i wonder if Walker/Hentschel/maybe lewis johnson will be competing for 1 spot? if so who gets it.
Yeah it should be interesting.
Walker, Tippett, Gill, Hentschel and maybe Sellar and pick10 will all get a run at some stage.
i hope we go for a midfield myself. i think we have enough young forwards and could do with a few more mids been edwards,goodwin and mcleod dont have long left.
My Hopeful picks for Eagles are as follows.
2.Naitanui
18.Swift(Hope he does not go early)Blease otherwise
20.Walters
36.Pearce/DeBoer
52.Blight/Banfield