Instead of the regular Boys on the Bubble post this week, since almost everyone’s on the bubble let’s just look at players with a negative breakeven. Breakeven has become a part of AFL fantasy football terminology: it refers to the score that a player must score this week in order for their price in a salary cap competition not to drop. 40 players have negative breakevens in the AFL Dream Team competition this week, meaning that they are the best sideways trade targets if you want to offload an injured or underperforming player on your team. Some of them are worth picking up this week, others not so much. Let’s go through them in a position-by-position breakdown.
Backs
Michael Osborne, $239,200, BE of -49, avg of 107
Bret Thornton, $249,200, BE of -45, avg of 108.5
Jake Edwards, $83,500, BE of -34, avg of 45.5
Alipate Carlile, $139,500, BE of -33, avg of 64.5
Max Hudghton, $150,700, BE of -22, avg of 63
Nathan Carroll, $229,100, BE of -10, avg of 84
Heath Grundy, $122,100, BE of -17, avg of 50.5
Jarryd Roughead, $226,300, BE of -16, avg of 86
Like many of you, I’m suffering from having a poor set of back rookies due in part to the 70 minutes of madness before round 1. The most noticeable thing about this list is that there is only one rookie in it, due in part to pre-season fantasy favourites getting little to no love from AFL coaches: Albert Proud, Darren Pfeiffer and Scott D. Thompson have played only one game and thus don’t qualify yet, and we haven’t even seen David Myers, Eric McKenzie or Lachie Hansen. Nathan J. Brown has a breakeven of 0 but he’s more of an SC prospect than a DT one.
I suppose we can group these eight players into two lots of four. Osborne, Carroll, Roughead and Thornton are in the upper tier of pricing, while the others are closer to rookie prices. People are already starting to ask about Osborne and Thornton, so here’s my opinion: both of these players are flashes in the pan. Thornton has played St Kilda, who provide no pressure on backmen because they all flood into the opposition forward line, and Richmond, who provide no pressure on anyone. His next three opponents are Essendon, Collingwood and Melbourne, so I could see him scoring reasonably well in all three of those games, but after that Carlton’s draw really tightens up. Be happy if you were lucky enough to select him at the start. Don’t expect him to deliver DT tons all year. On Osborne, you have to discount his score against Melbourne since it was such a rout, and the Freo game was pretty open and easy too. I would want to see him with Lewis and Crawford back in the side, I don’t think he can keep it up when the Hawks have their #1 midfield rotation on the park. As for Roughead and Carroll: neither of them are fantasy players. It’s a sad thing, I wouldn’t take any of these options.
So then you have Carlile, Hudghton, Grundy and Edwards. No to the first two, they are key position backmen and they rarely deliver consistent scores. Grundy and Edwards are more interesting to me. I think Grundy has been ignored somewhat in the pre-season, and it’s not often that you find a player that cheap who is named in his team’s first XVIII. He’s more likely to keep his spot than Edwards, and he is scoring more. He’s almost $40,000 more expensive, of course, and it’s a sign of the poor quality of this year’s fantasy backs that we’re even having to make this choice… nevertheless I’d go Grundy over Edwards if I had to make the choice (and I had the cash).
Centres
Jarryn Geary, $83,500, BE of -78, avg of 67.5
Travis Tuck, $138,100, BE of -68, avg of 81.5
Kieran Jack, $91,200, BE of -66, avg of 64
Sam Lonergan, $83,500, BE of -60, avg of 58.5
David Mackay, $83,500, BE of -37, avg of 47
Craig Bird, $83,500, BE of -32, avg of 44.5
Cale Morton, $111,500, BE of -23, avg of 50
Courtenay Dempsey, $133,800, BE of -18, avg of 55
Matt Thomas, $170,500, BE of -12, avg of 64.5
Lindsay Thomas, $197,200, BE of -11, avg of 73.5
Dylan Addison, $172,900, BE of -5, avg of 62
Adam Ramanauskas, $220,600, BE of -4, avg of 78
James Kelly, $333,100, BE of -2, avg of 116
Osborne (as above)
We can take Dempsey out due to his hamstring injury, and leave Thomas to the forwards since he qualifies there too. That injury to Dempsey is a shame, because everyone’s looking for this year’s Matt Priddis, who at this stage last year was priced at $175,500, and I was ready to anoint Courtenay as the new prince. Sadly, there may not be a Priddis this year… unless maybe it’s Tuck. I was on board with Tuck, Geary and Bird in this pre-season and also Jack in Super Coach, as many of you were, so you won’t get any argument from me about whether those four are the real deal. Now that Paul Roos has had a look at Bird in the midfield he should keep him there - Bird smashed former Rising Star Danyle Pearce on Sunday. Jack should also keep his place after throwing his body in Bloods-style and concussing himself twice. Tuck top scored for the Hawks in a dominant performance, while Geary has survived fantasy killers Sydney and capitalised on Carlton to be the most-sought-after fantasy rookie centre. As for the other rookie-priced midfielders, Lonergan really fell away in Round 2, while Mackay and Morton are only producing bench-worthy scores at best. Thomas and Addison are racking up some decent numbers at a price band that not many fantasy coaches would have considered, and probably would not have room for now. Kelly is a blip who will fall back when Steve Johnson hits form, while I would not recommend Ramanauskas based on his round 2 score.
Rucks
Michael Gardiner, $145,500, BE of -23, avg of 61.5
Cameron Cloke, $227,300, BE of -16, avg of 86.5
Trent West, $83,500, BE of -16, avg of 36.5
Troy Simmonds, $236,700, BE of -11, avg of 87
We all knew Simmonds was going to be better than his price suggested, and he’s exceeded even those expectations with some damn good scores. If he keeps this up he’s a consideration to be a keeper. Cloke is the big surprise here, although you’d have to worry that Matthew Kreuzer and Cain Ackland will cut into his production once they suit up.
Forwards
Josh Hill, $103,400, BE of -107, avg of 89
Cameron Stokes, $72,600, BE of -90, avg of 70
Ryan Gamble, $83,500, BE of -81, avg of 69
Cyril Rioli, $83,500, BE of -79, avg of 68
Stuart Dew, $162,800, BE of -58, avg of 85
Matt Campbell, $170,700, BE of -45, avg of 81
Leigh Harding, $151,500, BE of -29, avg of 66.5
Kurt Tippett, $83,500, BE of -27, avg of 42
Paul Medhurst, $240,700, BE of -16, avg of 91
Colin Garland, $91,200, BE of -16, avg of 39
Paul Stewart, $83,500, BE of -14, avg of 35.5
Jason Porplyzia, $256,200, BE of -9, avg of 92.5
Jay Schulz, $191,800, BE of -4, avg of 68
Bernie Vince, $168,700, BE of -2, avg of 59
Nathan Thompson, $178,400, BE of -1, avg of 62
Thomas, Grundy and Roughead (as above)
Hill is the obvious standout here, especially for those of us who took a chance on Dew (no no, that’s just a bit of grit in my eye, I’m not crying really… :’( ). He’s safe as a downgrade target from a disappointing mid-pricer. Very few of you would have missed out on at least two of Rioli, Tippett, Hill and Gamble already. Stokes has some very tasty numbers, although I still worry about how many games the Hawks will actually give him considering his youth and body shape, it’s not a very endurance-loaded frame he’s got there I would have thought. Garland and Stewart have dropped away and aren’t worth considering at this stage.
Of the mid-priced forwards, Porplyzia is the choice for obvious reasons, mostly having to do with injuries to Chris Knights and Brent Reilly forcing the hand of Crows coach Neil Craig who would otherwise be very stingy with TOG for his younger players. Expect Porps to drop off once those players return, by which time he should have made a tidy profit for you. Thomas, Campbell and Harding have had some soft opponents in the first two rounds and that won’t continue. Medhurst and to a lesser extent Schulz are the classic rollercoaster players for fantasy, and a big dipper is never far away so I wouldn’t pay a ticket for the ride. Vince and Thompson have been disappointing, especially this week when both couldn’t capitalise on their teams dominating forward entries - I wouldn’t jump off just yet because they are going to earn money, but I’d consider benching them based on matchups, e.g. Vince in R4 at Aurora vs Hawthorn and Thompson in R5 vs Collingwood where young Brown is a solid matchup for him.
Next week we’ll be back to the normal BOTB format. Happy trading!
I’m gonna have to trade Pearce out this week (in SC). He is going to cost me a swag of cash although Port have played Geelong and Sydney. A nice option at his price is Selwood from Geelong.
monty whats the deal with tippett? is his injury there or not? i dont see any reports on how many weeks he will be out thats why just wondering whether to trade dew or tippett for hill thats all depending on how long their injuries are
need to do one of these to either upgrade lynch (tried to be different..) or someone frmo backline, like you monty my rookie back there is just completely struggling and am considering not playing any
Nice summary there Monty. I’m paying much closer attention to the BE’s this year.
My plan this week is to trade out Leigh Fisher and Justin Koschitzke to pick up Nathan Bock and Josh Hill.
Combined with my current bank balance this will leave me with 200k to upgrade once the value change come next week.
P.s. Thanks again for convincing me to keep McLeod and Gibbs. Who saw Gibbs cracking the ton this week???
Hey Monty are you able to do the same for Supercoach?
Tippett will most likely play in R3, simplicity. He was only listed with “knee soreness”, and apparently he could have come back on if needed.
Brad: I certainly enjoyed Gibbs’ work this week!
Brent: the SC stuff would mostly be the same… except Brown would be under a lot more consideration in the backs.
great thread.. would also be very helpful if there was another one possibly with players BE’s over 100 or something, so we know whos almost definately coming down in price!
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing chad. Maybe later tonight.
(DT)
any thoughts on byron schammer?? should i wait it out a little longer with him (he would only need 60 to break even), or should i trade him out for a guy mentioned above?
who do you has the best chance of holding their spot out of geary, jack, and bird?
If the Fryer (Tuck) can hold on to his spot in the side, I reckon he will be the next Pritis. The fact that there is talk of him being dropped when more fancied Mids come back only enhances the Similarities.
Molly
hey, since stuart dew is injured i need to trade him of course but i dont know who to get dew is $162,800 and i have $130,400 to spare so all up its $293,200 and i was thinking about getting porplyzia who is $256,200 cause hes been getting hundreds or i was thinking josh hill cause hes been getting about 90 every week and hes $103,400 and that would give me a $189,800 left over for if i need to make another trade later on but i was worried about josh hill cause he might be inconsistent since hes new. can anyone tell me their opinion and who they would get?
If Hall had tanked again this week, I was considering trading Hall for a Rookie/Low price (was going to be Dew and then Stokes) and improve my backs. I think it is an interesting short term risk to play Hill (I am already playing Rioli) but host of my Forwards are now going okay (Have Porps already).
My Problems is my backs and I am not sure what I doing in that area. Do I pull a trade this week, or wait for prices to move and see another week.
I am fixated with Stokes and am thinking of burning a trade to get him for Hansen. Will depend who is named this week. Is a risk as Stokes probably only has a short stay in the side in him when/if the hawks better players come back.
JMTC
Molly
Would you play Josh Hill or Ryan Gamble this week? Hill’s probably better but Gamble is playing Melbourne so is likely to (actually make that will) be involved in a rout.
Cheers
Getting injuries has to help stokes to keep getting games tho Molly. Its good to have these players keep coming back, but the ones going out with injury (croad, dew) keeps stokes in the 22
Hey monty i had a great week this week and made top 500 overall and weekly so I’m struggling to make the decision to drop players who havn’t had absolute shockers? Right now I’m looking at dropping 1 of lynch or pettiffer for hill-carter and using the money to upgrade my rookie back because none of them are performing and i dont want them in my 22. I was going to get thornton but after reading what you’ve said there I’m not entirely sure, any suggestions would be useful.
To Simon (the OTHER Simon above) i rekon you should trade down for hill and use the cash to upgrade another week performer. On the other hand porplyzia is a great pick so if you have another underperforming forward perhaps its worth the double trade. I think hill is marginally better value though.
(DT)
any thoughts on byron schammer?? i was hoping for more from him (he’s not even getting much game time, 60% TOG i think in rd 2). should i wait it out with him a little longer (break even is 60 so his price drop won’t hurt if it indeed does drop), or should i trade him for one of those cheap centres mentioned???
who do you think will hold their spot out of geary, jack, and bird?
Nice work m0nty!!
Has made me consider Grundy for SC. My 7th backman is really worrying me, as Brown hasn’t been that great and Scott DT didn’t play.
Nice summary there Monty.
I agree with your thoughts on Stokes. Seeing as you & Molly are both Hawks fans, you would have a better idea on their players than I would. I was thinking of making 2 trades in the fowards, but seeing as though Hawthorn have Lewis & Crawford to come back into the side, I can’t see Stokes playing in the second half of the season barring injuries & suspensions.
It looks like I will be trading Paul Stewart for Josh Hill this week.
I’d play Hill over Gamble, Fred.
Simon, congrats! You have to keep Lynch, he’ll come good. Pettifer was blanketed this week by Harding, which is not a great sign because Harding is a spud! Downgrading Pettifer and upgrading a rookie back sounds like a great idea.
Hey Monty,
Love the work you put into this site.
Here is my dilemma this week, I love the look of Hill and want him in but not sure if its worth it.
I can downgrade Jetta to Hill.
However my backline rookies are causing me headaches, with SDT, Hartlett, and Hansen giving me 0 last week. There doesn’t seem to be any decent upgrade I can make unless I downgrade someone like T Cloke to Hill…
I’d go with gamble fred, you’ve seen what he can do in a rout this week, no reason for that to change and Hill’s a small forward so even if he is a good 1 he’s going to be a bit inconsistent naturally.
Either Hill or Gamble would be safe options to make some quick cash before the values change next week. Don’t plan on them pulling big numbers for much longer though.
hey there anyone got any thoughts on what i should do ive got schammer in the mids and kosi in the rucks which both will drop in price should i down grade one and get a better player witth the other? eg kosi for cam cloke or king? or tuck for schammer and get cox for kosi my prefered option?
Monty, I have a conundrum… I took a risk on Dew. 4-6 weeks means im going to trade him and i dont mind that etc probably going to pick up hill etc BUT my problem stems from this: In DT i have Steve Johnson and in Supercoach I have Brendan fevola- In trading Dew i will have a swag of cash in both comps and was thinking this: Trading up on Johnson in DT to a more consistent Chapman and trading down from Fevola to pick up roughead and make more cash. These would be my first trades of the year, so im not worred about that-im more worried about whether or not S johnson and B fevola will actually be fantasy players this year. What are your thoughts?
i also have dew monty would it be bettter leavin schammer or kosi n trading dew for hill havent seen hill but his scores have been impressive
I’m assuming uv already got simmonds or ud trade kosi for him strudy? I’d get cox, he’s a superstar, and there are plenty of cheap options in the mids, tuck is a good one but he amy not retain his place so jsut keep that in mind, consider some of the rookies too.
Rod monty has already said he roeckons you should keep johnson, he’ll come good. As for fev who knows.
And strudy, in that case I’d probably lean more towards trading dew for hill/gamble and trading kosi for cox. worry about schammer next week he could still come good.
Hey guys,
Was wondering what you think of these options considering I held on to Lucas to see what would happen over the weekend and now Dew has gone down. My backline is pretty weak starting 2 rookies.
a) Dew->Hill and Lucas->Riewoldt or Chapman;
b) Lucas->Porps and Scott DT->Thornton or Osborne with Dew sitting on bench for a few weeks with Rioli start; or
c) Lucas->Hill and Scott DT->McPhee means Rioli and Hill start
thanks simon’s yeh ive already got simmonds but dew for hill then gettin coxa sounds good cheers
just found you reply in the sea of posts monty haha, thanks for the help i didn’t know anything about Harding so that helps.
Keep up the good work.
You have a lot of options there docks, its a bit difficult to say which is the best. Downgrading someone like lucas for hill does give you a lot fo cash but its a huge risk, a gun for a rookie. On the other hand none of the backline rookies are performing so people are looking to upgrage. I think b) may be your ebst option for now, but monty reckons thornton/porps scores may drop off after a while, could be a good mid-term fix though and both porps and thornton will make u cash.
I know im posting far too much i promise I’ll stop, just got 1 more question of my own.
I’m going to trade petiffer for Hill/gamble and with the cash i want to do 1 of 2 things which is best.
a)C. Wood (who is starting) for simmonds.
b) a starting backline rookie for any 1 of a number of performing backline players.
If i do a)i will do b) next week and vise-versa so which is a priority? ( and is either option jsut plain stupid?)
Can you post more things about supercoach
Dear Monty, Great advise above. I need to make some cash this week in my forwards so I can upgrade my backs. Similar problems as others with SDT, Jamison & Hartlett making up a pretty pathetic backline when none of them play. I have got Dew & Hawkins and I was going to trade one of them for Hill. Will Hawkins loose money based on his start to the year? Can you see him being dropped soon?
Also I have Leroy Jetta who had an ok Pre-season. Whats your thoughts on him, should I get rid of him instead of Hawkins or Dew this week? Is he a dud or will he improve?
The reason I am not getting rid of Dew is I think he will make money when he comes back, well at least he wont lose money while injured.
Any advise from anyone is greatly appreciated.
Thanks Rick
Here are some players with a BE of over 100
Steve Johnson 161
Kane Cornes 139
Chad Cornes 130
Matthew Pavlich 121
Nick Riewoldt 116
Jonothon Brown 120
Peter Burgoyne 146
with a breakeven of -58, dew will make you money when he plays his third game, its whether you want to hang onto him for the 4 weeks though
Jbro, Reiwoldt, Pac, Chad, Kane are all irrelevant when it comes to dropping players becayse a) they wioll bounce back and b) they can quite reasonably be expected to actually get those scores.
Thanks for the advise on Dew Brett.
Yeah I was leaning towards that option too Simon. Worst case Thornton doesn’t continue to perform and I use the cash I will make off of him in a few weeks to “upgrade” to an underperforming P. Burgoyne.
As for your question, if you really want to make a trade I would go opetion a.
There aren’t many cheap and performing rucks so I would get on Simmonds before his price sky rockets.
getting rid of peadophile is a risky option - he is a gun and can produce big numbers. not conviced on hill - would go with gamble
is stokes a good trade for ebert?
better options than stokes mitch (Hill, gamble, rioli). Hey what does everyone think of stanton? Is the no.1 tagger likely to keep going to watson or what? Because if he gets the tagger again he has to go.
I am thinking of trading Porplyzia for Chris Tarrant coz he is super awesome.
No. But seriously. I am thinking of upgrading Tyson Goldsack, and have $100k free. I was thinking of Kennelly before Kane Cornes tagges the fark out of him. Then i wad thinking Thornton until I read what Monty wrote.
Any comments from anybody?
I also have Schammer starting, but may perservere coz he may come good. Just look at Dyson (who I also have, 22 to 90odd this week)
i already have gamble and rioli but i wonna get sumone who is going to get me 70-90 every week
hill carter is by far a better option than stokes mitch. More likely to retain his position and score higher. As for u Burty kenelly will come good but perhaps not worth getting after round 2 when u really want to get on the big movers before they go up. Monty didn’t flat out turn-down thornton, jstu said he may be more short-term so dont be too dismissive of that option. players like Craig Bolton, Johncock, Brett jone have all ppushed their cases so there are heaps of options.
From what I have seen from the Carlton games, which admitedly isnt much as I am a Pies fan, Thornton doesnt seem to be getting the no. 1 big forward each week, which has enabled him to act in a quasi Joel Bowden role, sweeping across half back, racking up cheap ones, which Joel is famous for.
Based on that, I thought he may be a good pick up. Maybe i’ll get him and see what happens. Whats the wors that can happen.
he could rbeak his leg 5 mins in and then goldsack could rack up 900 in DT by kicking 70 goals.
Its unlikely but id be worried about that one
hey i’m going to trade kosi for either simmonds or cox? … whoz better value u’s reckon? .. i know cox is better & i can afford him… but is he worth $200,000 more than simmonds?
who is ur 2nd ruckman jhonny?
Hey Monty,
BIG decisions are needed to be made for my team this week. I’ve been very happy that I followed pre season form and reports and had gamble, hill, rioli, tippet, bird & palmer in my side. This week is a tough call and I want to make 2 trades to get cash cows:
1) Steve Johnson for Cameron Stokes
- Stokes is going to go up massive and Johnson will go down. I’m looking at a minimum $60,000 turnaround with this trade
2) Leuenberger for Simmonds/Gardiner
- Leuenberger hasn’t done enough and no i don’t have Simmonds (wanted to be different
Is Gardiner flying under the radar or Simmonds better?
3) Ricky Dyson for Jarryn Geary/Travis Tuck
- I know Dyson can be a DT gun but Geary and Tuck seem to be better cash cows. I don’t think Tuck will be doing this after Crawford/Lewis but was just thinking
Anyones advice would be appreciated.
Thanks Monty, you rule!!!!
jarrod id go with option 3. He is going to obviously play this week and will go up heaps hopefully if he can get at least 70.
I don’t know if there will be a spot avaliable when crawf and lewis come back so get him now and trade him round 5/6
G’Day Monty and Gang,
Same old story didn’t get to change reserves in round 1. Got Palmer starting, Bird and sadly Andrew Browne on pine.
Already going to trade Hartlett for Hill.
My dilemma is whether to punch out Browne for Tuck for the cash flow or to trade in Simmonds for Luenberger (currently start with Cox and Wood).
Leaning towards Simmonds at the present.
Hi Monty,
The the site guys, first post would love some help. Side looking ok except -
1) three backs not starting hansen, myers, selwood. What do i do? there doesnt seem to be any good options at this price & need a starter.
2) Mids okish except boak who is crap & armitage not starting. Do i bring in a tuck? suggestions? Mid price option?
3) forwards i have jetta, thoughts on him? Should i trade him for Hill? I also have tippett & rioli
Love your work
Cheers
can you make a new blog about SUPERCOACH
i’m thinking of trading t.cloke for pretty much any other forward, purely based on form. is this pointless so early? or is he just going to loose me cash after next week and limit my choices? ..thoughts anyone?
luenburger for simmonds is ur best option IMO jarrod, dyson will continue to perform and johnson will come good.
I know there’s already been a few questions about Schammer, but do you know what the deal is with him? I didn’t expect him to get massive scores, but i think i saw that the last game he only got about 60% TOG. (I was elated when he got 14 possies in the first half against Collingwood, but since he’s been craptacular).
And in case i do decide to get rid of him, who is most likely to hold their spot out of Geary, Bird, & Jack?
Shigella, go with tuck this week and get simmonds next week ebcause wood should increase in price whilst browne will not. If you cant afford to do both then get gearry or something instead of tuck.
“and richmond who provide no pressure on anyone”
hahahahahahah.
chris egan a keeper.. what do ya reckon ken? I’m hoping he will be the pick of the season along the same lines as carazzo was last year.
M0nty - what’s the deal with Lethal league - I came second overall last week?? Show me the money
Also there seems to be an issue when trading players - I have $30K available but when I go to add a player I only have $12 to spend??
hahaha chris egan no chance. My advice is to trade him asap cant believe anyone would pick such a nuffberger.
if he continues to play midfield dazzles he may score wellish, at least more than his price may suggest, i didnt see the game friday so hoping its an aberration. pick of the year? dont think so mate, ive already assigned that to matty luenberger. or should i say nuffberger?
Rick.. Re Hawkins. Even tho he hasnt been pulling big numbers, from what iv seen he hasnt done anything wrong and seems very team oriented. As long as the cats keep winning i would think they would be keen to get games into him. He is a star in the making. Having said that, my name isnt Mark Thompson.
What on earth does Steve Johnson have to do with James Kelly?
hey brett where did or how did u work out the break evens?
what happened to nickoski from wc this week? Why did he get such a low score? i didnt see the game.
Who to get for max rooke…nickoski or osborne im thinking
any thoughts?
steve johnson isnt goal hungry anymore. damn it. should i stick by him for one more week hoping that he plays well or trade him for porps? if i do the trade i will have heaps of money to fix my backline. (supercoach)
Hey Sam,
Nicoski played defensive this week (I think he was on Goodwin when he kicked a lot of goals). Unfortunately, that will be his story this year…Some weeks good and some not. That said I have him and will expect an ave of 70 til I get to uprade him.
Osborne prob a better pick because of his ave now, although it is unlikely to continue. If I had money in your position I would rather upgrade to a known gun.
Also Sam, I would not downgrade S.Johnson. There must be worse players in your team to downgrade, and there is no reason he wont continue like he did last year.
Thanks for the advise on Hawkins Flash.
Nicoski only went on to Goody in the 4th, he didnt have any major defensive role before then-he just couldnt find the ball.
Hi Monty,
Love the website, long time reader first time blogger.
My side is going okish scoring in the 1800’s thus far, need to improve in a few areas.
1) Three rookie backs not scoring hansen, myers & selwood. What do you suggest here there doesnt seem to be any good options?
2) Mids are ok except for Boak is average, do i trade him? suggestions mid price mids? Also have armitage from saints, is he likely to get a game? trade for tuck?
3) Forwards going ok as well was thinking of trading jetta for hill?
Thanks
Nathan Bock for the crows has done reasonable. Do you think it can last. I have plenty of cash and thinking about upgrading a rookie (selwood or A lee) for someone like bock. Money is not really this issue, what do you guys think?
Anyone know what happen to S thompson and hansen? I thought they were named.
Hi Monty,
Love the website, long time reader first time blogger.
My side is going okish scoring in the 1800’s thus far, need to improve in a few areas.
1) Three rookie backs not scoring hansen, myers & selwood. What do you suggest here there doesnt seem to be any good options?
2) Mids are ok except for Boak is average, do i trade hime? suggestions mid price mids? Also have armitage from saints, is he likely to get a game? trade for tuck?
3) Forwards going ok as well was thinking of trading jetta for hill?
Thanks
Monty, this page is great but the lethal league doesn’t work properly, for me anyway. It lets me trade out but not in. I have 2 blank spots in my team and $50,000 in the salary cap, which, i unfortunately can’t seem to use. I am currently top so I’m pretty keen to get it fixed up. What should I do?
Monty, great blog, but the lethal league doesn’t work properly, for me anyway. I am currently top, but I have 2 blank spots in my team now because it is letting me trade out, but not in. What should I do?
Hi Monty,
Wot do u reckon, i reckon Hurns a dud, dont know why i got him. So Osbourne would be the ideal replacment, who should i trade Hurn for?
Also I have Lucas still and have been playing tippet. I want to wait until chapman drops in price, or should I just get Porplyzia?
Higgo, I would hang on to Boak for a couple of weeks. Remember Port has just played the Cats and the Swans in the last two weeks (that probably goes for others sitting on Salopek and PBurgoyne, Pearce etc.), so he will no doubt improve. Port play a high possession game. Just haven’t been able to play it yet.
Hurn is a dud. If anyone has actually watched West Coast, you would recognise that he is actually one of the dumber footballers going around.
Thanks simple, any thoughts on the rest of my post?
XztatiK did you actually watch the game. Before giving the break down on Nicoski, from the start of the game he went straight to Mcleod and was tagging him as an attacking defender. Hence the reason for the bad score, West Coast were not going to kick to him as an attacking option. So before opening your mouth why don’t you get the facts right.
Also i found this great site that has all players listed break evens and movment values for both dt and sc the site http://www.xalia.com.au
Where has Osborne been playing? In the middle? Will Crawford and Lewis cut his stats?
Has Thornton turned into a Joel Bowden? He had a pretty good preseason playing in the Bowden mould.
Will Palmer back up with another good game?
Thanks
is the breakeven correct with the new pricing system?
Thanks simple any thoughts on the rest of my post?
i was wondering who i should trade for lachie hansen - nicoski or daniel bradshaw? do you have any other suggestions?
thanks for the help fro but i went with the johnson trade for porps. I needed the money to fix my backline- 2 players that scored 0 (rooke from cats, myers from bombers).
dt. Don’t expect Bradshaw to be getting 50’s all season. Matthews has said he’s still not fully fit and fireing at the moment but should hit his straps at about round 4 - 5. Nicoski, his first two rounds are what his whole season will be. Good one week, crap the next.
Thanks simple, any other thoughts on the rest of post?
yes mark it wasnt right at the start but it has been changed
Why bag out Nicoski? He’s finally injury free, he’ll finally get back to averaging around 70-80, and he may have a few bung weeks BUT you shouldnt have him in your team for any other reason than he is a back who will GO UP and you can trade up on him. priced at an average of 48, he’s already averaging 62-with a home game this week i would expect that to rise to 65-which will mean he will have one of the more effective price rises out of any of the players in the comp save for ellis, porps and osborne. On osbourne-he will be a gun this year, but yes, expect his figures to suffer with crawfs and lewis in the team– that said–he will make you a bucket load of cash… AND… Johnson has a home game against MELBOURNE this week-why would you trade him out?????? Rooke may play this week also, you dont know…
panic trading for the latest guy to be averaging a 100 is a certain way to die in this comp…
Mixed reviews here on Thornton and Osborne. To anyone considering these 2 remember the Brennan debacle last year… Average of 100 and something after 2 rounds… Total dud!
thats exactly right Fro!
Hey guys,
Would like some help on my forward line.
I would like to get Josh hill into my team as I don’t want to ‘miss the boat’.
Forward line is
Brad Johnson, Matthew Pavlich, Jonathan Brown, Barry Hall, Rioli, Nathan Thompson, Daniel Bradshaw. Res: Edwards, Tippett
Thinking of trading down one of the more expensive players (eg Brown) for Hill and using the money elsewhere.
what do you think ?
The Key to trading in the first two weeks is to set up your team to make as much money as possible. Yes trading good players is a waste of a trade but you can make lots of cash from your mistakes. Trade this player for an up and coming player(rookie). Once the star has bottomed out and the rookie has peaked trade them back. Example S.Johnson(Gee) for J.Hill(Bull) will make you 300,000. Johnson price will drop by about 50,000-75,000 Hill will raise by about 150,000-200,000(maybe more) then make the trade back and you have an inform Johnson and have made 200,000 to upgrade someone else.
Dear Eric,
Thats a pretty good forward line. The only reason for getting Hill would be to make some money when his value increases. I would never get rid of Brown, you just have to have him. Unless of course your midfiedl is weak. I would get rid of Hall or Johnson if you wanted to get rid of a high value player.
I would hold onto your gun forwards, get rid of Bradshaw or Thompson (prob Bradshaw) and then make money on Hill, Tippett and Co. and then upgrade your midfield or backs.
Thats just my 2 cents worth.
Well Eric, while I am putting my 2 bobs worth in…..
Do Not get rid of J Brown, B Johnson or M. Pav… or even Hall on last weeks performance. You pick up rookies to get gun players, not the other way round. If you want Hill I would trade either Thompson or Bradshaw or Edwards… All okay cash cows but not great scorers. And Hill should be a much better cash cow than all of them. I am leaning toward Bradshaw for no real reason apart that he competes with J Brown for points.
Eric i wouldnt be trading Brown out, he should be a year long prospect unless he gets injured. I would trade with Thompson or Bradshaw.
Why does everybody have to relate experiences this year, back to last year?? Priddis was an abberation last year, and people should stop fantasising about who the “Next Priddis” will be. Similarly, we know about the debacle for those picking up Brennan and Bock after round 2 last year, who flat lined after 2 good initial weeks.
That shouldnt stop people from picking up guys like Osborne and Thornton. JUST because Bock and Brennan hurt some people last year doesnt mean it will happen again.
If you are risk averse all season, you wont be winning any cash. Take a punt on someone I say and forget about last year.
PS Chris Tarrant and Justin Koschitske will be this years Priddis’
good advise Fro and Burty
I don’t see Thornton’s scoring as a fluke. Calrton’s game plan should enable him to keep scoring well, just don’t expect him to average you 100. You might be looking more around the 80 mark, and for a back, that’s not bad. The backs in general are definitely looking very weak this year, so I would take an average of 80-85 and load up in your forwards and centres when you have the chance.
Sam, what are you doing trading on a Tuesday! Rookie error. You don’t put your dinger on before you actually go on a date do you…?
i agree also, there is no way iwould trade JB
Your right Burty, you do need to take risks, but you need to look at the reasons players are scoring well as well as their history. Lasy year for example, Priddis was a sandover medallist by record margin without playing a lot of games. He was a young player underpriced… great value.
Osborne however is 25 playing his 6th (or so) season. He has averaged around 50-60 and has not really improved until this year. This fact and his age makes me wary.
Thornton may be better value because it appears he has had a role change, but I would not expect him to continue this form. Based on this and his price, there are better cash cows out there (that said i wish i had him, just wouldn’t pick him up now.)
Thanks Fro & Ricky1301,
All very good advice. I think it will have to be Hill for Brashaw for me.
Cheers and good luck !!!
I agree with you about the Backs Simple. I spent lots of money on P. Burgoyne and Mcphee. Hopefully Burgoyne lifts, but who knows how Mcphee will go now he is playing forward. Bad research pre season by me. At least I have Shaw who is fairly consistent.
Does anybody rate Johncock?? If you had the money would you buy him over Thornton, even though Thornton will make you more money when his value increases?
Johncock is a gun but in future he will have to compete with McLeod and Bock for points
trading out a gun and then trading them back in later is a complete waste of trading… Particularly when you look at the games this week… bulldogs vs saints– this will be hills first test versus a far more potent forward line and backline than either of his two previous opponents… If he plays up forward he has to contend with gram, s fisher, hudgton, blake, gilbert, l fisher, clarke–not too mention maguire and Goddard who could get names at any stage– If he floats down back to help out as he has been doing- then its riewoldt, gehrig, milne, kozzi,and schneider… he wont score as much this week- you wouldnt think–compared to johnson vs MEBOURNE for crying out loud. Why would you trade out someone so good prior to the first price shift?????? first two rounds-make sure your rookies are right and your mids are right… hill for johnson makes no sense AT ALL!
Wot do you guys think about Jetta, should i trade him for Hill? Will Jetta improve?
Love your work and was wondering if you can do a blog on players at the other end of the scale, who’s price is going to drop the most cause of bad performances in the first 2 weeks
hey ive got kosi and simmiond as rucks and havent got enuf cash to getkosi for coz so should i get a sandilands or someone or just keep kosi?
Whhat do you guys think about Jetta for Hill. Not sure, if Jetta improves you would probably say no?
StrangerDanger, ease up mate I was just trying to give some of the people with Nicoski some help. I went to that game and then watched the replay when I got home and fact is he spent the majority of his time off half-back as usual, he wasnt on McLeod for long at all. And the term is actually ‘defensive forward’ not ‘attacking defender’, (since Mcleod was in defence for adelaide, i presume you saw that?).
Oh and thanks for your tips on trading your premiums for rookies with high BE’s. Who would’ve thought of that???
For supercoach:
4 players Im thinking of trading:
1) John Meesen
2) Lachie Hanson
3) Micheal Johnson (Freo)
4) Brent Stanton
I have a fair bit of cash left over, do you think Johnson and Stanton will pick up, or should I trade them before they lose money. Or should I get rid of the rookies who aren’t playing or a combination?
Also if anybody is looking for another player in the fanfooty draft style games I’d love to join, email is: rohanlyle@gmail.com
Bert and Leigh Fisher out
Josh Hill and Heath Shaw in
Is that a good idea??
I would love your thoughts thanks guys
The ‘magic number’ Virtualsports uses for initial pricing has never been the same as the one they use for price changes.
In other words, the real breakeven scores are actually higher.
Should i downgrade Fev for Hill??? It will give me a spare 260k which i can upgrade boak with.
Monty, would it be worth trading out leunburger for cox seeing as cox will go up in price and i have close to a million in the bank while my other trade will be lucas our for hill.
would be great to get your thoughts.
thanks
hahaha, i love how passionate this place is.
rod - everything i’ve seen you say has been spot on. people get so excited about making money and perfecting their team early, they forget they’re gonna need those trades later down the track. to trade s.johnson now and then get him back later is madness.
And The Master, just on Kozzi, he’s up against the Dogs short backline this week, who will also be trying to cover Riewoldt and the G-Train. If ever he was gonna bounce back, it’d be this week. Unfortunately, if he doesn’t, it’s a big money loss for ya.
Im keen on trading Pearce for Tuck but monty made some good points about how port have been strangled so far. And will Tucky rack it up if Crawf, Lewis etc are back???
Yeah i am almost 100% going to trade pearce for murphy i think (unless someone can convince me otherwise which hasn’t happened yet). its pretty much the only trade i will make, unless i decide to get a rookie back in if hansen and scott DT aren’t named again.
I realise pearce has played the cats and sydney but at this stage murphy is just looking MUCH better
Monty, is the lethal league working properly? I can trade players out but not in, therefore I have 2 blank spots on my team for this week. It also says I have $50,000 left in my weekly salary, but when I attempt to trade in a player it says I have $27,000, not that I can get the player anyway. Whats the deal and what should I do??? I am currently top and am REALLY keen to get this resolved.
Murphy is definitely looking better, he got a modest 23 possessions last week but still managed 122 in DT. I’m glad i chose him, but i’m not glad i chose Schammer! what’s goin on with him? you reckon he’ll eventually lift?
also on thornton, i think if he’s got the potential to get those scores he’s worth buying, even if it’s not consistent. it’s a good thing he plays for carlton so the balls down there a lot too.
hahaha trading out johnson for hill then coffing hill later on for johnson is a sure fire way to burn all your trades by rnd 15. i have rioli and gamble, they’ll do me very well i wont have burnt a trade to get hill.
i also have egan, i took that risk and im gonna stick by my decision i think and save my trades for later rather than downgrading to hill. in fact i just had an epiphany, egan to hill might not be soo bad…ken just wrestling with himself here.
i cant see the dogs keeping up this incredible massibe DT scoring run much longer. thoughts?
Interested in Montys comments that Porps will drop off when Knights & Reilly return. Something I hadnt thought of. Was thinking of Porps as a long term player rather than a cash cow. Is it at all likely he will establish himself as elite this year with those players coming back
ken: here’s my thoughts… you’re a dickhead.
Hi Guys Thinking of trading Hurn out. Should i trade him for Thornton/Osbourne or give him another week and then pick up Pfeiffer or Harry Taylor newxt week as their prices won’t go for 2 weeks?
Cheer Jake
do you think it is worth using up a trade to get hill for nathan brown from collingwood? it will certainly make me alot of cash but is it worth using a trade on?
Can someone please tell me David Armitage is going to get a farking game. Having him sit on the bench, racking up donuts is killing both my DT and my SC.
I am pondering trading him. Geary is the obvious replacment, but I doubt he will get a regular game once the saints are at full strength. Craig Bird looks good, and given Melbourne’s early season ineptness (is that even a word?), I can see Cale Morton getting a few more games (note i already have Rhys Palmer)
Does craig bolton not get a look in for anybody’s team? He’s a quality player, has had a good start to the year and probably is relying on less variables to score solidly.
Warning on Murphy - Judd, Stevens and Scotland are yet to play well - and they will play well.
Beware - he is a great player but his scores will settle down.
Why do most people on this page seem so obsessed with DT but are clearly terrible at it. Trading S. Johnson this week is insane. Quality players such as him will come good, plus hes playing Melbourne. If ur rucks r not Cox and Simmonds, Lade is acceptable, ur an idiot. Porplyzia is gonna ave 80-85, he should b in ur team. And just because someone has had 2 good weeks doesnt make them good pick ups, u dont get the points they have already scored, obviously.
Lade is NOT acceptable!
Nothing wrong with a Cox and Lade combination, Lade is reliable, ave 80-85, still value for money. Though Simmonds is better
Ive got lade and simmonds starting, and for some insane reason i put kosi on my bench with gardi.
Thinking of trading kosi this week and dont know whether to A) trade him up to cox but that would mean 3 exp rucks on my team (same prob im already in)
or B) trade for cameron cloke or the like and make cash off this round and stay with simmonds/lade starting (but will prolly have to trade up for cox later, like everyone)
Any thoughts? Seems crazy not trying to make coin this round, cept theres no merit in getting carried away wasting trades this early..
Get rid of Kosi ASAP. Theres no point having that much money on the bench. Get Hampson on your bench. You’ll make $200,000, plus you have the option of trading him when he peaks in the low $200,000’s. I reckon its worth a trade, especially when it doesnt coast u any points.
Who’s the most likely to continue their form, Thornton, Roughead or Osbourne?
Any thoughts?
With Stokes (Hawthorn). If he scored say 1 (so as to trigger a change in value). What price would he be? Im wondering whether or not it’s worthwile to trade him in. I just want price change, not people’s thoughts on whether i should trade or not.
Does anyone know if the formula used to calculate the new prices is available, or something close to it? I know it’s based on a 3 week average…
cheers nick, thats the way ive been leaning too, and roughead for me
Jordox–thankyou…thats all ill say… haha, this place is passionate, and that particular discussion on S johnson just struck a cord-so thankyou.
Everybody we have found the DT GOD its….Nick he is a DT GOD. There is no doubt S.Johnson will do well but this game is about making money not losing money. Just like the stock market so sell stocks when their at their highest and buy them when they are at their lowest. The only reason you will run out of trades is because people do stupid cross trades with players that are valued around the same price.
No Strangerdanger, this game is about scoring the most and being able to do it for the whole season… Trading Johnson for Hill now is a mistake. You are assuming that Hill will take the mantle of Johnson as a premium forward-The only reason you want hill in your team is to make you cash to trade up your mids– if you subtract a quality premium like him out of your team you are only going to have to make it up later-HENCE WASTING YOUR TRADES. If you have 8 trades left come finals time and there are other forwards performing better than him, then OF COURSE you trade him– but you cant do shit with no trades—
That said– I havent made a trade yet this year yet i have Brendan Fevola in my SC line up and im not sure i want him on the field–yet having on the bench is wasting too much money. Im just interested to hear what people think of Fev and whether or not they consider him a premium forward anymore? If i was to trade him i have a couple of options i could trade up to say P chapman etc or down to say roughead etc–freeing up even more money. Please unleash on fev and let me know your thoughts>>>
Rod: One of my mates is in a similar position re: Fev and I believe he’s getting rid of him this week, downgrading. Its tough making calls on players after 2 weeks but I have doubts about his ability to perform as a premium fwd consistently.
Who is better value Hill or Gamble? I’m leaning towards Gamble as he’s $20k cheaper and playing Melb this week.
Would appreciate some thoughts on Pettifer. He’s played o.k in the first 2 rounds but I just wonder if I would be better off biting the bullett and spending a bit more and trading up to a Brad Johnson or Chapman into my forward line instead. Or do people here think that Pettifer is capable of some big numbers ?
Does that mean doing a straight trade Valenti to Hill isnt good?
I have never been a fan of Fev. If you can get Pavlich in your team, he is as consistent as almost any midfield player. I think if you can get him in your team get him.
sorry Rod, I meant to say Chapman, not Pavlich.
Hey lads great info all round!!
I’ve got peter burgoyne who is 388K who has been struggling and will go down in price. im thinking of trading him for someone else around the 300 to 350K to make some coin but still have a solid player. What are your thoughts on Gilbee? Any other ideas
StrangerDanger, u r a retard. The game is about scoring points not making money, why weaken ur starting 22? If u want to trade to make money use ur bench.
Hammer:- It’s a tough position to be in. Im pretty sure i dont want him, i just dont like the guy! I think id rather roughie or porps or chapman-players i like. I dont know– i have a good forwardline, he’s on the bench-so i just dont know if i want more cash as i have $300k already or whether i want chapman (coz of Melbourne). Anyhow–Hill or Gamble– quite a challenge in itself. I have to say base it on who your other rookies are-are they playing etc? I think you’ll find over the season, and this is only my opinion, that Gamble will be more consistent. Hill is a GREAT cash cow, and will be a gun-no doubt- BUT he plays for the bulldogs and is yet to be really tested. Where as Gamble plays for the cats, reigning premiers, and manages to get a game in their team…and scores that well… Peronsally, i would want both of them!
Matt:- Pettifer, should fire this year, BUT is not a premium forward, he should be in your team as quality mid who has the potential to go up. Have a look at your structure– how many rooks, mids, and premiums do you have in your forwardline? If you dont have either chapman or johnson in your forwardline, you would want to have some decent replacements.
Dan: Valenti for hill is a great trade in the 1st two rounds. Get your rookies right and you will be laughing. Valenti isnt yet worth nun’s expletive.
Rick:- I have Pavlich already mate. Im a huge fan of his.
Rick:- i posted before i read your correction. Cheers!
Rod, u clearly know what ur talking about, unlike StrangerDanger who is crap, get rid of Fev for Chaps, he is reliable and will get u consistent tons. Dont risk a future trade on the risky roughead
Thommo- Dont b stingy with ur premiums. Gilbee is in good form and will always do alright, but Cornes, Bowden, H Shaw and Milburn r the most reliable, go for one of them first if u dont already have them
Nick, thats all i needed to hear. Thankyou!
Anyone got an opinion on Heath Grundy? He was alright on the weekend and seems like he will b more consistent than the other cheap backs? I have selwood doing nothing on the bench at the moment, worth a trade?
A question or all of you:
If you could pick up one of the following 3 backs how would you get:
Thornton
Johncock
Roughhead
Thanks guys
Nick, I got Grundy at the begining of the year based on how cheap he was. I was suprised on the weekend with his score. I would hold onto him because he looks like he will play each week, unlike a few other player sin the similar price bracket
Cheers rick. There seems to be a big question, should I trade down a forward to get Hill and then which unreliable mid ranged back should I upgrade 2? This is a massively risky strategy, though it seems tempting you will lose points in search of big bucks. Personally I wouldnt do it. Though from the three you suggested Rick, I would say as a Crows supporter Johncock looks to b going alright so far, but not worth it IMO.
Nick:- what you know is that Grundy will go up this week and Selwood wont. In fact Selwood could only start earning you money at the end of rd 5 if he was selected this week. I would wait to see the selections, and swap him for a rookie who is permanent or Grundy if you like him etc…
Rick:- Depends who else you’ve got– but id be taking Johncock for longevity.
Rod. Thanks for your comments on Pettifer.
In answer to your question about my forward line structure, here is what I have; Pavlich, Pettifer, Burton, Porps, Hill, Gamble, Rioli, Bench: Tippett, Stewart.
I’ve gone for lots of rookies in my forward line in the hope they will go up in value so that I can trade up to to the likes of B.Johnson, Reiwoldt, Chappy, Brown or O’Keffe. I have 600k available but I am keen to keep plenty of powder dry for now.
Matt, great forward line, except for Pettifer, I dont really rate him. IMO Monty loses a lot of dream teaming credibility not playn a rookie forward (and not picking Cox). If I could go back in time my forward line would look like that, except with stokes in for stewart and a chappy for pettifer
I would also prefer Johncock out of the 3. he is very consistent. Although i would add that I am not going to make any changes to my backline at the moment because it is the most difficult position to get a feel for because no-one is really performing that well except for Thornotn & Osborune….both of which the jury is still out on. I’d rather wait to see who shows some consistency over 5 or 6 rounds and then trade accordingly. But if you have to make a defensive trade right now (and you can afford it) my gut feel is to look at guys like Chad Cornes, Heath Shaw, and Joel Bowden because these guys are about the best in the pack and have proven their consistency over several seasons. Just my 2 cents worth !
I cant trust the backs so I went with 5 premiums, Cornes, Bowden, Shaw, Milburn, Mcphee
DT GOD I would like to know how you go in the overall ranking considering you know everything about DT. what i forgot your a god. For a retard i’ve finished in the top 100 for the last 3 years so you cheap trying to win your crap league and let the big boys worry about the major prize.
Thanks Nick. I guess if I decide to trade Pettifer, I have 2 options. Trade up for Chappy or trade down for Stokes (and make some cash). My only concern about Stokes is whether he will keep getting a game. The coach seems to like the lad though.
I agree with Nick. Matt. Your forwardline scored you 602 last week, nothing wrong with that at this stage of the year and seeing which players you’ve got. I would ditch stewart for stokes–i wouldnt worry about your money situation mate, you’ll have plenty- i would get rid of pettifer for chappy or riewoldt, to add a bit of balance. Your rooks will earn you bucket loads of cash and enough of them should always be playing for you to never have a 0 etc The reason why you should upgarde is that your forwardline has too many players who’s scores could be affected by returning players–porps could suffer when knights and reilly are both playing etc You need a player to back them up in the sense that its ok if porps scores 70 OR 108. Pettifer wont support that
Stranger Danger- Iquit last year cause I was about 1,000 half way through, the year before I came 13th overall. Im winning the lethal league currently.
“For a retard i’ve finished in the top 100 for the last 3 years so you cheap trying to win your crap league and let the big boys worry about the major prize.”
A CHEAP prize from a crap league for the guy that can spot the grammatical error in the above sentence!
I’d take Stiffy Rick.
StrangerDanger you’re an idiot.
Rod, i look at the Gamble-Hill situation in a different way, i agree that it says a lot for Gamble that he can get a spot in the strongest side in the league but i’d rather have Hill who is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the WBD side if he can just keep up scores around 60-70 while Gamble is constantly watching his back with Mackie and Ottens returning and Prismall and David Johnson waiting for a chance.
Anyway I dont think you can go wrong with either player. Glad I have both. Now I just have to decide who to start lol…
umm ‘cheap’? is that it? YES!
now I’ve won more than StrangerDanger ever will, speaking of which, SD please give us your team name so we can see that you are a liar.
Gamble will get dropped, Hill will play 22. Take the gamble on Gamble but he will get dropped.
Thats a fair point Xztatik. Thats why i think its worth having both, because i think Gamble is going to score 50-90 every time he plays, and i think hill will make so much money its just not funny…
And congratulations on winning the Cheap prize from the crap league. Your prize consists of one full evening of typing on your computer how good you are at DT and where you came in the comp last year. Congrats!
Look-wait for teams, make sure Gamble is playing, if he is, make sure he’s on the field this week. It may change the week after, but geelong vs melbourne–you’d be crazy not to. Demons are going to have to produce a miracle to not let geelong score a record against them.
Hey I’m in a relatively similar situation to matt with pettiffer. I had a good score last week but i want to get on either hill or gamble because i feel as though i should be starting a rookie in my forwards and i could use the cash for an upgrade in my backs or to get simmonds (yes i dont have simmonds). Problem is pettiffer is probably my worst performing forward and he hasn’e been THAT terrible. Is it worth ditching him.
FWD line is: Brown, Porps, Burton, Hall, Pettiffer, Deledio, Lynch
Mike G: It doesn’t really matter if Gamble gets dropped, as long as he plays the next game. You most likely won’t be wanting Hill for much longer anyway so who cares if gamble gets dropped later on.
Thanks for your comments Rod. It makes alot of sense.
I think I have enough rookies so I have decided to trade Pettifer up to Chappy.
Not sure if I will trade Stewart for Stokes though. If I see Stokes named this week it will be extremly tempting. From what I have seen, Stewart seems a reasonable player and will probably get plenty of chances this year.
Hey boys (n’ girls)
Just joined a new DT league that starts this wk. Do you think I should go with cash cows and slowly upgrade them in the next 4-5 wks? Or should I create a team that will do good over time but may not make me much cash immediately?
I currently have cows such as: thornton, bolton, hill, porps, kelly, and medhurst, but was thinking what will happen if they all or most of them have shockers this wk and go up sweet F.A.?
Probably not much dymez, as the majority of those guys will actually need negative scores to lose value, which has about a .001% chance of happening. even if the majority only get 50 you will still make a fair bit of cash
Nice. I’m new with the whole BE side of things, but it’s slowly making sense.
It’s hard trying to pick between guys that may continue to pile on big scores 4 a while, and the guys who are a little less in cost will be trade bait straight after they play their 3 games.
It’s guys like medhurst, bolton and thornton especially that may well be worth the risk because they become straight trades for guys in the 320 bracket if they continue their form this wk.
But then if that does happen and they do score in the 80s and up, do you stick with them and hope they become keepers (and at the same time risk players you had in mind to trade for go up in value and out of reach). That’s the million dollar question I guess. And where actual football knoweledge comes into it more than DT knoweledge
Guys interested on your thoughts about a sideways trade. Stanton who i have for cross.
I have a policy of not trading guns but I am worried that Stanton will be heavily tagged this year so may need to re-assess. He showed last week that without the tag he can really rack them up!
I like the fact the fact that Stanton kicks it a lot more than he hand passes. Where for cross it is a stark contrast but he still scores well with tackles and marks.
Mighty Quinn, Stanton is a keeper i thought that was the decision in the podcast today. i’ve got both him and cross so that particular trade hasn’t crossed my mind but either way i think he’s a keeper.
Cross is a lot better value than stanton but i would be reluctant to trade a fit player like stanton..
In SC…
Didac and Gilmore = out
Cox and Hill = in
or
Symes and Waite/Hartlet = Out
Thornton and Osborne = in
Thoughts? I feel that Cox will rebound back to arount 525,000 through the course of the season.
G’day,
just wondering what the deal with aaron davey is?
He playing this week?
Looking to trade him have $80 000 in the bank?
who would be a good get keeping in mind i’d like to keep about $50 000 in the bank.
Whens Coughlan gonna be back?
Cheers
Dymez: Id be very surprised if Medhurst maintained his current average throughout the season, he has a history of being inconsistent. Maybe he will surprise us this year!
The Man: There is no way Aaron Davey is playing this week, i think the diagnosis was 3-4 weeks but Richo missed 3 months with a similar injury. I heard they’re getting the injury re-assessed/examined this week. Coughlan is playing VFL I think, shouldn’t be too far off (pending injuries and form)
Did a bit of searching around. Looks like the formula is something like the players 3 week average - (current score/3160). Well that was last years formula, there abouts.
yeah Hammer, Coughlan will play VFL the next few weeks.
Pez, I dont like either of those options, keep Symes, Gilmore and Didak and dont get Thornton. Anyone else you can trade for Hill?
XztatiK - These are my forwards - thus far Didac is the only one i feel that is tradeable, its not that he is poor its just that Hill is cash waiting to happen.
16. PORPLYZIA, Jason
(ADE) $349,500
$0 ($ 0)
17. HALL, Barry
(SYD) $424,400
$0 ($ 0)
18. BURTON, Brett
(ADE) $364,500
$0 ($ 0)
19. DIDAK, Alan
(COL) $370,500
$0 ($ 0)
20. BRADSHAW, Daniel
(BRL) $284,800
$0 ($ 0)
21. HAWKINS, Tom
(GEE) $278,400
$0 ($ 0)
22. TIPPETT, Kurt
(ADE) $94,200
$0 ($ 0)
29. RIOLI, Cyril
(HAW) $94,200
$0 ($ 0)
30. GAMBLE, Ryan
(GEE) $94,200
$0 ($ 0)
If I were you Pez, I’d bear in mind that with so many rookies in your line up, you could find yourself short later in the season through resting.
I’ve done the exact same thing, loaded up with rookies, it’s left me $700,000 to throw around, but if a coach decides to give another rookie a run, then I’m up the creek.
Never undervalue a “score” on the field, even if it’s small, just to have someone who is a guaranteed starter.
Just on Daveys injury,
It would be worth trading him out because of it being on going?
i was thinking of trading him for burton?
opening up the sal cap a fair bit?
What are your thoughts.
Cheers, Henry
pez i would definitely be trading Hawkins rather than didak.
That was in Dreamteam also.
Whats everyones thoughts on dew?? Is he worth keeping or traing him for Hill is a smart option?
Hi,
I have kozzi as a forward in SC(stupid I know). Would like to trade him for Hill. What does everyone think?
Here is rest of my forward line.
Brown
Franklin
Pavlich
Rioli
Thompson
Hawkins
–bench–
Tippett
Hartlett
i have 547,800 cash to work with
Just after your opnion guys. A mate of ine needs to imprve his back line so he s going to get rid of Judd and pick up a young midfield to free up some cash.
Do you think he should get Tuck or Ricky Dyson. Dysin is more expensive, but he is not convinced Tuck will play on a consistent basis.
Any advise is appreciated.
Thanks Guys
yes scott selwood is finally named in the wc starting 22!!!!!
just a quick one- bartel or cox as captain this week? .. i cant decide
duckboy1 i would trade hawkins instead of kosi for hill. And i take it you’re just looking for a cash cow because with the money u have in the bank u could easily grab another gun forward.
Hi,
What are your thoughts on T. Tuck vs R. Palmer? Who do u think has the better chance of staying in their team longer, and of course being in the position to score more DT points?
Dreamer… definitely go wuth Laura Palmer.. tuck will get less TOG with Crawf and Lewis back… and Dew will come back too
Yeah thanks Browns13… I think I will stick to my policy and keep Stanton. You are right he is a keeper.
thanks Quinn, sounds sound. Am looking to trade out Peake next week who has looked average at best this year. Do u think he’s worth sticking with at all?
Just wondering who i should put as capt this week?
Out of Mitchell, Hayes,J Brown, S Johnson or J Bowden?
I was thinking Johnson becasue they should kill melb but he has been in bad form…
Help out please.
Just wondering who i should put as capt this week?
Out of C Cornes, L Gilbee, H Shaw, J Brown, D Cox, M Pavlich, L Franklin, S Fisher, or B Stanton ?
I was thinking C Cornes because he usually plays well in derby’s but i heard he is going to tag Goodwin and he only got 66 last week
Help out please.
Bally: I would go with S Johnson because if i had any star Geelong players they would have to be the best option for this week for captain and don’t worry about his form as he will come back to form soon.
Wanting to make a trade…
Aaron Davey for Roughead.
It would open up my Salary cap to $163,800
to upgrade other players..My forward line would be
J. Brown, S. Johnson, Koschitzke, Porplyzia, D. Thomas, Roughead, Rioli
Good idea or should i keep davey?
Cheers
Bally, Mitchell is a safe option if you decide not to take the risk on StevieJ.
Darcy, Big Cox.
dont keep davey… or Kosi
Davey for Josh Hill?
What u reckon guys
Geary or Palmer, who would you start?
Thought id give Geary another go as Palmer might feel a bit of pressure in the derby?
G’day guys…
Who should i start out of Rioli and Gamble?
I imagine scores will be huge on Geelongs behalf so i was leaning towards him?
Cheers
Gday Henry,
Id go Gamble as Geelong are playing Melbourne
Would I be crazy to trade Dale Thomas for Josh Hill and then Scott Thompson to Heath Gundy?
Steve, Dale Thomas for Josh Hill fair enough,
Scott thompson for Heath Grundy, id go pfeiffer, proud or some other cash cow
Thanks Paul, I’ev already got Pfeiffer, Jake Edwards and Nathan Brown. Edwards and Thompson aren’t listed this round.
your mad to get rid of thomas he is durable and will get a lot of time in the midfield and forward to score points, surely there is another player you can use for such a trade…;
Yeah, it’s a tough decision, if I get rid of Thomas, then I can upgrade Thompson to Bock/Bolton. If I don’t then, I have no emergencies in the backline. But then,are emergencies more important than trades?
Bah! 20 minutes to go and I still haven’t made a decision. Improve my forward line in the short term to help my back line. Duh! Think I’ll just save the two trades and wear it. Trades are everything, surely.
Well doesn’t Brendan Fevola’s self imposed alcohol ban look like it’s bearing fruit.
Could it be because the game was a shoot out? Could it be because Chris Judd is starting to find his form?
Time will tell. Overall it was an interesting round for break evens, some “cash cows” still looking up if you couldn’t get on the wagon earlier too.
Looking forward to the next article, I can’t figure out the formula to punch into a spreadsheet to work out the prices and break evens to make some long range predictions but I’m keen to figure out what prices the current form of players will plateau at, the likes of Josh Hill STILL having a -100 break even for example.
why arent there any new blogs Monty???
Are lloyd and west injured? thats going to kill me this week!!!