Long-term injuries to your players in round 1 really suck. Scott Lucas in particular is a hard luck story for the fantasy coaches who bought him, since his injury history is nearly spotless. Sean Rusling has a history of shoulder injuries, and at least Brent Reilly played out the game for a decent score.
Rusling is probably the easiest to replace. Three other forwards returning from major injury showed that they can deliver solid scoring this year: Stuart Dew, Daniel Bradshaw and Nathan Thompson. Assuming you don’t have all three of them already… in which case you probably don’t need my help!… load up on one of these proven performers for around the same or less price than Rusling depending on the competition.
Reilly was reasonably expensive to begin with, so you’ve got a lot of options in the centres to replace him. I like Marc Murphy at just under the same DT price. Chance Bateman would be a distinctive player if you got him. Looking at around the $200,000 mark in DT, Lindsay Thomas, Bachar Houli and Richard Douglas all had good round 1 starts, though I rate Houli higher than the other two. Also, don’t forget Kieran Jack - if he can deliver on the notoriously fantasy-unfriendly SCG this week, he should be a primary trade target for every fantasy coach.
Lucas is where the pain really starts to bite. He’s priced just under the top tier of fantasy forwards, so you probably can’t upgrade him to a Brad Johnson type without making a second trade in week 1 - and you should try to avoid that if possible. Most of the hyped up mid-price forwards failed to fire in week 1. Much of the discussion about a single sideways trade has centred on Matthew Lloyd, but I am always wary about full forwards, especially in DT. I would also be suspicious of Brett Burton’s DT ton, coming as it did in a high-possession goalfest where the Birdman was gifted a couple of goals. The Crows aren’t likely to get beaten 19 goals to 18 again this season, they’ll no doubt go back to the Wall strategy this week against the Eagles and Burton won’t get nearly as much opportunity. Meanwhile, Ryan O’Keefe seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy this season in most of the teams I’ve seen but after his decent score against the Saints in a terribly crowded lockdown environment I think he deserves serious consideration to be the #1 replacement target for Lucas.
One strategy I would offer up for consideration, especially for Lucas, is to sub in one of your bench rookies this week in place of your LTI player, to give you another week to assess the replacement market. Rioli and Tippett have shown that they can produce decent scores, so you’d only lose 20-40 points in making a decision that could end up costing you hundreds… or making you hundreds!
Good call on O’Keefe, always been a proven performer. I’d also be wary of Lloyd, if he doesn’t kick a bag of 5 or 6 will get sub 60 scores.
what about buddy franklin for lucas?
Not bad, jdog.
What is your impression of Fev? And if Im to trade him out do you think trading him for a Jetta is a good idea as it would also loosen up a lot of cash to upgrade players later?
Hey monty I see you mentioned that none of the EDTers have ROK which I find interesting, I would also find it interesting who the EDTers did pick in their side, anyway you can make this happen?
If you’ve got Fev you have to stick with him, Webby. Way too early to jump off.
Adam, I’ll see what I can do.
hey monty just wondering any tips for trading bird for kieran jack? or is it not worth the trade?
Too early for that call, young gun. Wait a week.
thanks monty.
Monty
With Lucas set to hold his value of approx $385k, would it be a good move to play your rookies for the next 2 weeks (providing they are scoring ok i.e Hill, Rioli and Tippett) and hope that Steve Johnson may drop in price such that he ended up close to Lucas?
just wondering what are your thoughts on porplyzia in the forward line instead of burton? he seems to be doing well enough and seems like the crows will be playing a younger midfield this year which should see him getting gametime there
That’s an interesting question, Barry. If Steve Johnson was to score 71 in each of his next two games he’d drop to 386200, only 2000 ahead of Lucas. However, with Geelong playing Essendon and then Melbourne, I think SJ’s more likely to average 170 in those two! If you can last until round 5 Geelong have St Kilda and Sydney, so he might go down again. A risky strategy I think - ROK, Lloyd or Buddy look like better bets to me.
simplicity: I hadn’t rated Porps previously, but the injury to Reilly will probably see him get more midfield rotation. Personally I don’t like any Crows forwards, but that’s just my taste.
Any ideas on what to do with aaron davey if he continues to hobble around the ground and just give up on the play like he did against hawthorn? I was thinkin about saving a bit of cash and pickin up porps, but might just wait a week as I’ve already traded for lucas this week…
Too early to dump Davey.
How about the comments made by roos about goodes taggin kornes? I got both of them in my DT, and for some reason i think this year is gonna be a carbon copy of last year for AG37. Don’t know if i wanna leave that another wk. especially when i could just upgrade him to cooney who should tear the melb. engine room apart
Don’t make decisions based on one game, dymez. It’s all hearsay and coaches playing mind games in the media. I’m keeping Goodes in my SC side all year barring injury, he always comes good. Not making him captain again any time soon though…
Hope they don’t cancel eachother out and both score 50 or less, it seems like games @ SCG are taylor made for low DT scores, damn u SCG! Who would u put as (C) outta cox, bjohno or pav this week considering their opponents?
hey monty, similar to the aaron davey thing; any comments on d.wells from Mondays game? just didn’t look interested in the sherrin half the day, even the commentators were on his back. or is he just another round one anomaly?
Did notice that too penguin. Now i’m not racist, but is this an indigineous player thing? We’ve seen it in the past with burgoyne’s, mark williams, and buddy franklin, among others, that they love doing the flashy things but when they hit a flat point in the game they don’t fight through it they just go “walk-about”. Could this be a subject to look at when selecting players to trade for/drop?
can’t say i thought of it that way dymez, and like you i’m not racist. however, this is an interesting point. in saying this i did stick with wells early last year and he started to come good, until he got injured.. also, my other vice from the weekend was embley’s below-average performance. does anyone know if he was being tagged or just didn’t come to the party?
Did Roos say Goodes would take Kane or Chad? because it was Chad that got him fired up last year wasnt it?
Think roos was talkin about kane. Which to me is a stupid move, because kane has been known to break tags by going and tagging someone himself! I think it was when they played geelong last year and ling tagged kane then kane went and tagged either bartel or gablett leaving a port midfielder free for a few play phases. But yeah X i think you’re right about it bein chad who stoked AG37’s fire
Wells is not a fantasy player.
Don’t beleive embley was being tagged… One of my mates was watching the game religiously for both embley and JB, and from what i remember him saying, I think embley just didnt find his feet in the game, and got dragged 3 or 4 times. He’s good when he’s on sweeping up n’ down the wing but I think he just got a bit out-shone by guys like nicoski and other running players who were getting first hands on the ball and uncontested marks
Nice post Monty
I have Lucas, and had already decided to hold off on trading him out as in prev years have always been a sucker for jumping on one game wonders. I’m thinking either J Brown or B Johnson - both guns but reckon if you wait one more week you might get an indication if one of them will jump in price so get on then - or if Brown has a R2 shocker (here’s hoping against the Maggies) - he might go down in price after R3 and grab a bargain. Very risky but even Bartel can get 70 odd in DT apparently.
As for Porpy - I already have him so dont need to trade for him - but with Reilly out - he will never have a better opportunity then now to step up
thanks dymez, just wasn’t sure coz i didnt catch any of the game and was crushed to see embleys measly 51! ..not to mention wells topped it off for my midfield.
i’ll give them a few more games though.. as the bottom-line is is that its only round one. how much judgment can we all make really?
Hi Monty,
What are your thoughts on sitting Reilly on the bench until he’s back from injury rather than trading him out? I should be able to cover him with me bench players. I already have to trade out Lucas so I have to ration it out!
Cheers
That’s tough to have both Lucas and Reilly in the same team, Jarmayhem. I think 6 weeks is too long to wait though. There’s no guarantee that it will be 6 weeks anyway, there could be complications, and he probably won’t be as good when he returns either. You’ll have to burn those two trades, I’m afraid.
Oh jars you’d be spewin wouldn’t ya? You’re the 1st person i’ve seen with 2 outta the 4 guys go down over the wkend in their side. Have u traded lucas out yet? Or still deciding who 2 drop out of the 2?
hey Monty
I have bartram and MacNamara on my bench just wondering whether is worth trading one of them considering niether got a game?
Cheers
Hey dymez and monty,
Not only do I have both, but I’m the only guy in my league with either! I’m sitting on both at the moment and was going to wait until after this weeks scores for trade options. Though I think Lucas for O’Keefe may happen this week…
I rekon you should never have picked such a dud team in the first place timbo haha.
Jars if you got some mullah in your bank I’d go Reilly for Jobe Watson/Mcveigh type, on the basis that teams will copy cat the roos and tag out stanton. And Lucas for either lloyd, buddy or even des headland. You should really look at your targeted players next few rounds too, visualise who their opponents would be, and pick the guy who matches up best against whatever teams
U really did copp a swift 1 to the balls didn’t ya jars! The only upside outta all of that is, atleast your trades 4 the 1st few weeks are already made up for u. No pulling your hair out, atleast not for the 1st 3 rounds
tdawg: wait for the round 2 teams.
dymez who you got rucking?
Cox and simmonds brother. But nothin on the bench Trent west and renouff from hawkas.
Monty any idea why Ed Barlow didn’t get a game?
i heard was supposed to be up for a big year…
dymez you pick up any good rookies based on round 1 results?
you rekon stanton will be tagged out like that every game dymez? Because if thats true I’m going to be in trouble deciding my trades next week. Any opinion on B.Hall monty?
Who do you think would be a better captain this week - cox, the smiling assassin BJ, or Pavlich? Taking these 3 facts into consideration…
1- Cox is up against the young inexperienced crows ruck lineup of griffin, tippett, and possibly maric.
2- Johno comes up against a medioker at best melbourne defense where he would line up against carroll, bell, or miller
3- Pav is facing a depleted hawthorn back-line, in which jacobs (retired) and Croad (bung wrist) will both be absent, 2 players who would normally get the job on the big boy. Can gilham or thomas murphey even hope to contain him?
i second that eagles08. ive got him on my team and i thought he was a shoe in to get a game rd 1? monty?
go cox, griffin struggled and maric is injured til round 4.
Only 2 trades i did over 2 different teams were Lucas for Headland, and Trav tuck for dempsey. I only had tuck in my team for round 1 because hawks were missing their guns and i thought he might touch the pill a bit.
And as for stant, why not tag him out, look how frustrated he got with rawlings yesterday! But with jobes’ and mcveigh puttin up numbers like that, the focus may shift away from stant. I beleive stanton is the most damaging out of the 3 though, very smart player
Yeah cox is penciled in as cappo, but just thought some people may know something i don’t that might say otherwise.
Who’s everyone’s favourite pick-up from R1? Who did YOU pick up that made you feel like a minor genius?
pretty happy with kennelly and brock.
how about you?
hey monty,
i have reilly in my team with $77,500 in the bank. Im not sure which player to select but im thinking of getting one of priddis, watson, murphy or mclean.
What is your opinion on who i should get keeping in mind i have to trade out lucas?
Your help would be much appreciated
Priddis is clearly the best of those four, bigmac.
I’d have to say the obvious choice would be nicoski(97) and also tredrea(83) got me a lot more points than most players around his price range. Spewin i dropped dew before the start of the season, didn’t want to penny pinch all that much so i got tredrea goin on dew’s horrible NAB cup game i went to see against the crows… You win some you lose some hey… Tredders did score 25 points over what his price suggests though
You think priddis is a proven 380 price tag this year, with no ice-man or judd? I spose time will tell, but I liked what i saw saturday night. Also liked kerr’s early form in the match, man that guy is a ball magnet
ive got ed barlow monty, are you a fan?
well if stanton is tagged then i may have to ditch him for someone else next week, same goes for dyson if hed oesnt perform. This elaves me ltitel room to get those super-value players i missed out on. Still no-one got an opinion on Barry Hall?
I’m not a fan of Barlow if he’s not named to play, john.
I don’t buy all that crap about Barry Hall from last year, ‘obstructed vision’ and stuff, I just think he’s getting old and is no longer the force he used to be.
i hope you’re wrong xztatik, this is the first time i’ve had him.
dymez, i know u’ve already decided but had to agree with cox as captain. he always kills the crows, and now with no biglands or hudson, oh boy. I wanted to correct whoever said Maric is injured though, I didn’t think that was the case. Moran broke a finger, perhaps thats who ur thinking of. I could be wrong tho.
Oh and the player i was most happy with, N. Thompson looked great, but was particuarly pleased with Houli from Essendon. Looking good and picked up Rising Star Nomination!
I cant believe that some of u blokes hav made trades this early in the week! U guys r suposed to be pro’s!! If u hav ever played real footy u will know how easy it is to twang a hammy or roll an ankle at training!! And even if u havnt played u should know anyway!!
As for the blokes im most happy with so far… Hawkins, Porps and Nicoski.
gotta say, i was stoked about putting geary in over bird this week! he even outscored some of my “elite” midfielders such as goodes, embley, stevens & bartel (just).. hopefully its a sign of big things to come for him.
Yes Jordox, Maric is fine, he was named in the squad vs. WBD but Tippett and Griff got the nod.
Geary could do the exact same thing as what DEAN POLO from Richmond did last year or the year before.
He has a brilliant game (scored 120 ) and then failed to do anything after that
Wouldn’t say that Mitch, Polo averaged 68 points over 17 games in 2006 and earnt a lot of people a lot of money. I’d be very happy if Geary could do the same this year.
One guy i think doesn’t get a lot of credit and is a points scorer is Adam cooney. If he is not the no.1 midfielder at the bulldogs then he is very close.
I also liked Birchall (solid scorer and durable)and Rok from sydney.
Lost out on macintosh though.
DONT TRADE!!
What are you guys doing?????
Have faith in your selections. Your bench players with fantastic preseason form WILL play soon.
Imagine trading Palmer for Geary this week and Geary gets the boot in round 4 and Palmer plays every game for the Dockers from Round 3 onwards. Have faith.
Hold off on trading Lucas and Reilly until next week.
Save those trades.
Hey monty, how are you doing?
just a quick question, wondering how you went in DT this week?
and whether you thought it would be worth buying Bartel at the start of the year as very reliable captain material for the whole season
Regards Mark
Adam Cooney is a scardy cat… He is an excelent player when the ball is in front of him or when he has got it in his hands but i saw him squib a contest last year that he had to go for… Ball going over his head… He should have backed back and taken a mark but pulled out cause he knew there was an opposition player coming… Daniel Cross wouldnt have hesitated!!
I have Scotty Lucas and need to get rid of him. I also have $0 spare cash at the moment… yes…$0 exactly!!
What i am thinking of doing is trading Lucas for someone slightyl cheaper, say an Alan Didak who is quite cheap, and should be back to his All-Australian form of 2006 (if he stays out of trouble). That frees up some cash, which i could use before the start of round 3 to pick up / impriove my backline. I am concerned that Tyson Goldsack (20 points in round 1) may not be the great buy that I thouht he was, and i could use the money from Lucas’ sale to upgrade Goldy to maybe Kerry Anne Kenelly from Sydney.
Any comments??
hey monty i dont normally make trades to early in the week but was over excitied and traded fev for nathan thompson and lockie hansen for nickosi what do you think?
i know you didnt ask me strudy23, but i think anyone who trades before the teams are out is insane.
And i don’t think you should have jumped off fev after one game. I can only see him improving from last year with judd and stevens and co now kicking it to him.
ha, i agree with flash up there. so many trades so soon!
Interesting no one mentioned Giansiracusa. Got a big score round one and is about the right price range.
3- Pav is facing a depleted hawthorn back-line, in which jacobs (retired) and Croad (bung wrist) will both be absent, 2 players who would normally get the job on the big boy. Can gilham or thomas murphey even hope to contain him?
Think that you’d find that Campbell Brown will most likely pick up Pavlich. Undersized but never gives up so never out of the contest.
So Monty,
Any opinion on Didak as a potential cheaper replacement for Lucas as per my message above.
cheers
Prediction…. Brown to get suspended again for punching Pavlich in the head.
Will Nathan Eagleton play this week? Seems to be no info on injuryupdate.com.au but heard he didn’t finish against the Crows??
If anything Burty– trade Lucas for Dale Thomas. Thomas will spend far more time in the midfield and is a monty (excuse the pun) to go up in value… this is if you like the collingwood blokes. I do as they are well coached, and you know they will always chase. Thomas or cloke for Lucas, make some cash and trade up later in the season… ONLY if you like collingwood. Otherwise look at Burton and Co etc Didak may have a great year, but will not be what those other three can be scoring wise
hey, since stuart dew is injured i need to trade him of course but i dont know who to get dew is $162,800 and i have $130,400 to spare so all up its $293,200 and i was thinking about getting porplyzia who is $256,200 cause hes been getting hundreds or i was thinking josh hill cause hes been getting about 90 every week and hes $103,400 and that would give me a $189,800 left over for if i need to make another trade later on but i was worried about josh hill cause he might be inconsistent since hes new. can anyone tell me their opinion and who they would get?
Check out the latest blog entry, Simon.
oh sorry Monty