FanFooty blog

Instead of the regular Boys on the Bubble post this week, since almost everyone’s on the bubble let’s just look at players with a negative breakeven. Breakeven has become a part of AFL fantasy football terminology: it refers to the score that a player must score this week in order for their price in a salary cap competition not to drop. 40 players have negative breakevens in the AFL Dream Team competition this week, meaning that they are the best sideways trade targets if you want to offload an injured or underperforming player on your team. Some of them are worth picking up this week, others not so much. Let’s go through them in a position-by-position breakdown.

Backs
Michael Osborne, $239,200, BE of -49, avg of 107
Bret Thornton, $249,200, BE of -45, avg of 108.5
Jake Edwards, $83,500, BE of -34, avg of 45.5
Alipate Carlile, $139,500, BE of -33, avg of 64.5
Max Hudghton, $150,700, BE of -22, avg of 63
Nathan Carroll, $229,100, BE of -10, avg of 84
Heath Grundy, $122,100, BE of -17, avg of 50.5
Jarryd Roughead, $226,300, BE of -16, avg of 86

Like many of you, I’m suffering from having a poor set of back rookies due in part to the 70 minutes of madness before round 1. The most noticeable thing about this list is that there is only one rookie in it, due in part to pre-season fantasy favourites getting little to no love from AFL coaches: Albert Proud, Darren Pfeiffer and Scott D. Thompson have played only one game and thus don’t qualify yet, and we haven’t even seen David Myers, Eric McKenzie or Lachie Hansen. Nathan J. Brown has a breakeven of 0 but he’s more of an SC prospect than a DT one.

I suppose we can group these eight players into two lots of four. Osborne, Carroll, Roughead and Thornton are in the upper tier of pricing, while the others are closer to rookie prices. People are already starting to ask about Osborne and Thornton, so here’s my opinion: both of these players are flashes in the pan. Thornton has played St Kilda, who provide no pressure on backmen because they all flood into the opposition forward line, and Richmond, who provide no pressure on anyone. His next three opponents are Essendon, Collingwood and Melbourne, so I could see him scoring reasonably well in all three of those games, but after that Carlton’s draw really tightens up. Be happy if you were lucky enough to select him at the start. Don’t expect him to deliver DT tons all year. On Osborne, you have to discount his score against Melbourne since it was such a rout, and the Freo game was pretty open and easy too. I would want to see him with Lewis and Crawford back in the side, I don’t think he can keep it up when the Hawks have their #1 midfield rotation on the park. As for Roughead and Carroll: neither of them are fantasy players. It’s a sad thing, I wouldn’t take any of these options.

So then you have Carlile, Hudghton, Grundy and Edwards. No to the first two, they are key position backmen and they rarely deliver consistent scores. Grundy and Edwards are more interesting to me. I think Grundy has been ignored somewhat in the pre-season, and it’s not often that you find a player that cheap who is named in his team’s first XVIII. He’s more likely to keep his spot than Edwards, and he is scoring more. He’s almost $40,000 more expensive, of course, and it’s a sign of the poor quality of this year’s fantasy backs that we’re even having to make this choice… nevertheless I’d go Grundy over Edwards if I had to make the choice (and I had the cash).

Centres
Jarryn Geary, $83,500, BE of -78, avg of 67.5
Travis Tuck, $138,100, BE of -68, avg of 81.5
Kieran Jack, $91,200, BE of -66, avg of 64
Sam Lonergan, $83,500, BE of -60, avg of 58.5
David Mackay, $83,500, BE of -37, avg of 47
Craig Bird, $83,500, BE of -32, avg of 44.5
Cale Morton, $111,500, BE of -23, avg of 50
Courtenay Dempsey, $133,800, BE of -18, avg of 55
Matt Thomas, $170,500, BE of -12, avg of 64.5
Lindsay Thomas, $197,200, BE of -11, avg of 73.5
Dylan Addison, $172,900, BE of -5, avg of 62
Adam Ramanauskas, $220,600, BE of -4, avg of 78
James Kelly, $333,100, BE of -2, avg of 116
Osborne (as above)

We can take Dempsey out due to his hamstring injury, and leave Thomas to the forwards since he qualifies there too. That injury to Dempsey is a shame, because everyone’s looking for this year’s Matt Priddis, who at this stage last year was priced at $175,500, and I was ready to anoint Courtenay as the new prince. Sadly, there may not be a Priddis this year… unless maybe it’s Tuck. I was on board with Tuck, Geary and Bird in this pre-season and also Jack in Super Coach, as many of you were, so you won’t get any argument from me about whether those four are the real deal. Now that Paul Roos has had a look at Bird in the midfield he should keep him there – Bird smashed former Rising Star Danyle Pearce on Sunday. Jack should also keep his place after throwing his body in Bloods-style and concussing himself twice. Tuck top scored for the Hawks in a dominant performance, while Geary has survived fantasy killers Sydney and capitalised on Carlton to be the most-sought-after fantasy rookie centre. As for the other rookie-priced midfielders, Lonergan really fell away in Round 2, while Mackay and Morton are only producing bench-worthy scores at best. Thomas and Addison are racking up some decent numbers at a price band that not many fantasy coaches would have considered, and probably would not have room for now. Kelly is a blip who will fall back when Steve Johnson hits form, while I would not recommend Ramanauskas based on his round 2 score.

Rucks
Michael Gardiner, $145,500, BE of -23, avg of 61.5
Cameron Cloke, $227,300, BE of -16, avg of 86.5
Trent West, $83,500, BE of -16, avg of 36.5
Troy Simmonds, $236,700, BE of -11, avg of 87

We all knew Simmonds was going to be better than his price suggested, and he’s exceeded even those expectations with some damn good scores. If he keeps this up he’s a consideration to be a keeper. Cloke is the big surprise here, although you’d have to worry that Matthew Kreuzer and Cain Ackland will cut into his production once they suit up.

Forwards
Josh Hill, $103,400, BE of -107, avg of 89
Cameron Stokes, $72,600, BE of -90, avg of 70
Ryan Gamble, $83,500, BE of -81, avg of 69
Cyril Rioli, $83,500, BE of -79, avg of 68
Stuart Dew, $162,800, BE of -58, avg of 85
Matt Campbell, $170,700, BE of -45, avg of 81
Leigh Harding, $151,500, BE of -29, avg of 66.5
Kurt Tippett, $83,500, BE of -27, avg of 42
Paul Medhurst, $240,700, BE of -16, avg of 91
Colin Garland, $91,200, BE of -16, avg of 39
Paul Stewart, $83,500, BE of -14, avg of 35.5
Jason Porplyzia, $256,200, BE of -9, avg of 92.5
Jay Schulz, $191,800, BE of -4, avg of 68
Bernie Vince, $168,700, BE of -2, avg of 59
Nathan Thompson, $178,400, BE of -1, avg of 62
Thomas, Grundy and Roughead (as above)

Hill is the obvious standout here, especially for those of us who took a chance on Dew (no no, that’s just a bit of grit in my eye, I’m not crying really… :’( ). He’s safe as a downgrade target from a disappointing mid-pricer. Very few of you would have missed out on at least two of Rioli, Tippett, Hill and Gamble already. Stokes has some very tasty numbers, although I still worry about how many games the Hawks will actually give him considering his youth and body shape, it’s not a very endurance-loaded frame he’s got there I would have thought. Garland and Stewart have dropped away and aren’t worth considering at this stage.

Of the mid-priced forwards, Porplyzia is the choice for obvious reasons, mostly having to do with injuries to Chris Knights and Brent Reilly forcing the hand of Crows coach Neil Craig who would otherwise be very stingy with TOG for his younger players. Expect Porps to drop off once those players return, by which time he should have made a tidy profit for you. Thomas, Campbell and Harding have had some soft opponents in the first two rounds and that won’t continue. Medhurst and to a lesser extent Schulz are the classic rollercoaster players for fantasy, and a big dipper is never far away so I wouldn’t pay a ticket for the ride. Vince and Thompson have been disappointing, especially this week when both couldn’t capitalise on their teams dominating forward entries – I wouldn’t jump off just yet because they are going to earn money, but I’d consider benching them based on matchups, e.g. Vince in R4 at Aurora vs Hawthorn and Thompson in R5 vs Collingwood where young Brown is a solid matchup for him.

Next week we’ll be back to the normal BOTB format. Happy trading!

One of the most important set of choices you’re going to make all year with your salary cap fantasy team is what to do with the rookies in your team this week and next week. This is especially true given the 70 minutes of madness last week meant that many, many coaches weren’t able to get the right set of rookies into their squad of 30 in the first place. Here’s a guide to the decisions you’ll no doubt be making.

Backs. Big problems here during round 1, which was a surprise given the pre-season performances of many hot young prospects. Instead of the plethora that we all expected to be able to choose from, the only rookie defenders who ended up pulling on a guernsey were Scott D. Thompson, Jake Edwards, Nathan J. Brown and Adam Hartlett. This week many coaches sighed with relief to see the names of Albert Proud, Lachie Hansen, Harry Taylor and Garrick Ibbotson on AFL team sheets, removing the need to trade out those players. However, Hartlett has been suspended and now Scott DT has been dropped!

Who to start in Dream Team (in order): Hansen, Edwards, Proud, Ibbotson, Brown, Taylor.
Who to start in Super Coach (in order): Brown, Hansen, Taylor, Proud, Edwards, Ibbotson.

Midfielders. A fair few were caught out by surprise non-selections during the madness, though Rhys Palmer, Chris Masten and Clint Bartram are among the rookies who were named this week to escape the fantasy chopping block. Some excellent performers here in round 1 but also some duds, most notably the very popular Craig Bird. None of the centre rookies got dropped this week despite rumblings about several players in the weeks ahead, like Travis Tuck and Sam Lonergan.

Who to start in Dream Team (in order): Jarryn Geary, Keiran Jack, Bartram, Cale Morton, Courtenay Dempsey, Tuck, Masten, Palmer, Bird, Brad Ebert, Lonergan.
Who to start in Super Coach (in order): Jack, Geary, Morton, Dempsey, Bartram, Palmer, Masten, Tuck, Bird, Lonergan, Ebert.

Forwards. I went into the season thinking that Kurt Tippett and Cyril Rioli were the two standout forward rookies, and I didn’t even like Tippett yet I put him in my side due to lack of choice. Turns out the forwards are where the action is at with rookies this year: Josh Hill, Colin Garland, Paul Stewart, Ryan Gamble and even Cameron Stokes all delivered decent scores in round 1, and don’t forget the double eligibility of Edwards, Hartlett and Brown from the backs. This week we’ve got Lachlan Henderson, Ben Ross and Chris Mayne joining the party.

Who to start in Dream Team (in order): Garland, Hill, Gamble, Edwards, Rioli, Tippett, Stewart, Henderson, Brown, Stokes, Mayne, Isaac Weetra, Heath Grundy, Ross.
Who to start in Super Coach (in order): Hill, Garland, Gamble, Tippett, Henderson, Stewart, Rioli, Brown, Edwards, Mayne, Stokes, Ross, Weetra, Grundy.

Since I’ve already gone through AFL Dream Team 2007 winner Steve Morfesse’s team for 2008, after a suggestion from coggers I guess it makes sense to look at the 2008 Super Coach side of 2007 SC winner Casha. Here’s his starting Casha’s Killers EDT squad:

Backs: Heath Shaw, Andrew McLeod, Lindsay Gilbee, Jake King, Martin Mattner, Brad Symes, Mark Nicoski, Nathan J. Brown, Scott D. Thompson.
Centres: Nick Dal Santo, Lenny Hayes, Nathan Jones, Andrew Swallow, Chance Bateman, Nick Stevens, Bachar Houli, Craig Bird.
Rucks: Justin Koschitzke, Troy Simmonds, Matthew Kreuzer, Shaun Hampson.
Forwards: Matthew Pavlich, Nathan G. Brown, Brett Deledio, Alan Didak, Stuart Dew, Nathan Thompson, Leroy Jetta, Cyril Rioli, Kurt Tippett.

This is almost the complete opposite of the Peckin Away team strategy which won DT last year. Where Steve starts five rookies, Casha starts none. Casha spends big on only six premium-priced players, where many others would have 10-12. The fact that Houli starts on his bench only underlines how little Casha values rookies in his structure.

This method requires a huge amount of faith in mid-priced players. Some of them look like genius picks based on round 1 performances, such as Dew, Nathan Thompson, King and Bateman. Others are not so hot, like Swallow, Brown and Didak. His round 1 score was just inside the top 30,000 so he has a lot of ground to make up. It will be interesting to see how many premiums he can manage to trade up to by season’s end… his trade targets will have to deliver in spades!

Those of you who bought the NAB Cup ’08 AFL Record would have been interested to see an article about Steve Morfesse, winner of the 2007 AFL Dream Team with his Peckin Away squad. Amongst tales of his derring-do were snippets about how he only made one trade before round 8 due to his travelling in Europe, how much he valued his bench and how much research he did before the season. This year, Steve’s Peckin Away team starts as follows:

Backs: Chad Cornes, Joel Bowden, Heath Shaw, Brett Jones, Martin Mattner, Adam Hartlett, Jake Edwards, Scott D. Thompson, Albert Proud.
Centres: Jimmy Bartel, Kane Cornes, Daniel Cross, Nick Stevens, Ricky Dyson, Kieran Jack, Craig Bird, Cale Morton.
Rucks: Dean Cox, Troy Simmonds, Cameron Wood, Matthew Kreuzer.
Forwards: Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, Jonathan Brown, Brett Deledio, Jason Porplyzia, Cyril Rioli, Kurt Tippett, Ryan Gamble, Jarryd Morton.

I like this team a lot, especially from a structural point of view. He’s starting five rookies, which is consistent with the high-risk strategy that wins championships. You could point at Dyson, Deledio and Hartlett as poor picks given their round 1 performances, but that’s not the point – the structure is the thing that gets you there. I particularly like how he has spent big on Kornes and Jimmy, in line with his comments in the AFL Record article about how he likes to buy “the absolute best players in the game”. This is where I differ in thinking from those who are on the bandwagons of both Lenny Hayes and Cross due to their prices being slightly deflated compared to their best previous form, as opposed to spending top dollar to get Kane or Jimmy. I have tried to follow Steve’s lead and not pinched pennies with my premiums.

The one big flaw in Steve’s team based on round 1 scores is that too much faith is being placed in mid-priced younger players and not enough in mid-priced older players whose prices are discounted due to recent long-term injuries. Stuart Dew, Brett Burton, Nathan Thompson, Daniel Bradshaw, Tadhg Kennelly, Mark Nicoski… these names are under-represented in elite teams but they all delivered on the Easter weekend. Then again, it’s a long season and those old bones may start creaking again while the young pups are still jumping around. We shall see!

Long-term injuries to your players in round 1 really suck. Scott Lucas in particular is a hard luck story for the fantasy coaches who bought him, since his injury history is nearly spotless. Sean Rusling has a history of shoulder injuries, and at least Brent Reilly played out the game for a decent score.

Rusling is probably the easiest to replace. Three other forwards returning from major injury showed that they can deliver solid scoring this year: Stuart Dew, Daniel Bradshaw and Nathan Thompson. Assuming you don’t have all three of them already… in which case you probably don’t need my help!… load up on one of these proven performers for around the same or less price than Rusling depending on the competition.

Reilly was reasonably expensive to begin with, so you’ve got a lot of options in the centres to replace him. I like Marc Murphy at just under the same DT price. Chance Bateman would be a distinctive player if you got him. Looking at around the $200,000 mark in DT, Lindsay Thomas, Bachar Houli and Richard Douglas all had good round 1 starts, though I rate Houli higher than the other two. Also, don’t forget Kieran Jack – if he can deliver on the notoriously fantasy-unfriendly SCG this week, he should be a primary trade target for every fantasy coach.

Lucas is where the pain really starts to bite. He’s priced just under the top tier of fantasy forwards, so you probably can’t upgrade him to a Brad Johnson type without making a second trade in week 1 – and you should try to avoid that if possible. Most of the hyped up mid-price forwards failed to fire in week 1. Much of the discussion about a single sideways trade has centred on Matthew Lloyd, but I am always wary about full forwards, especially in DT. I would also be suspicious of Brett Burton‘s DT ton, coming as it did in a high-possession goalfest where the Birdman was gifted a couple of goals. The Crows aren’t likely to get beaten 19 goals to 18 again this season, they’ll no doubt go back to the Wall strategy this week against the Eagles and Burton won’t get nearly as much opportunity. Meanwhile, Ryan O’Keefe seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy this season in most of the teams I’ve seen but after his decent score against the Saints in a terribly crowded lockdown environment I think he deserves serious consideration to be the #1 replacement target for Lucas.

One strategy I would offer up for consideration, especially for Lucas, is to sub in one of your bench rookies this week in place of your LTI player, to give you another week to assess the replacement market. Rioli and Tippett have shown that they can produce decent scores, so you’d only lose 20-40 points in making a decision that could end up costing you hundreds… or making you hundreds!

If there is one piece of advice I would give this week for those of you thinking about trading it is this: don’t. Well, unless you are forced into it by long-term injury, as is the case if you have Scott Lucas, Brent Reilly or Sean Rusling. Commiserations if so. In particular, give these players a week more:

Brett Deledio: I always thought Lids was a much better SC prospect than DT this year, and his scores in round 1 reflect that. If you do have him in DT don’t despair, as he remains a quality player. The Tigers were too Richo-conscious on Thursday and they will adjust to bring smaller forwards like Deledio into the game.

Bryce Gibbs: I have him in both my DT and SC sides and I’m giving him another week at least… but he’s on notice! Gibbs tagged Foley in the middle all night, which is an improvement over the back pocket role he got last year, but still not his ideal role of outside receiver. It’s a worry that Nick Stevens and Chris Judd seem to be looked at far more than any other Carlton midfielder for handball and kick receives, with Judd especially being the first go-to man. If Gibbs can’t manage at least 60 this week against the Saints he’s out of my teams.

Jason Gram: he’s not going to get a hard tag from a ferocious Swans stopper every week. He’ll be right, especially when Brendon Goddard returns from injury to free him up – Goddard has been playing well for Casey Scorpions so he’s not far away.

Adam Goodes: media speculation, fueled by coach Paul Roos, has Goodes possibly tagging Kane Cornes this week, something which kickstarted his season last year. Even if that doesn’t quite wake him up, do not trade him. He will come home like a train as he always does, you just have to hope that his fires get stoked up earlier rather than later.

Craig Bird: Roos inexplicably used him as a forward pocket, which is rather like using Tiger Woods as a bunker scraper. Roos has said that he’ll keep playing the kids next week, so at least wait and see if the coach pulls the finger out and sticks Bird in the guts where he belongs.

Brad Symes: 6 frees against was a very poor result, especially in SC. Apart from his first quarter against the Dogs where he scored -2 in DT, his numbers weren’t actually that bad. Hold the line and see if his scores settle down.

Brent Stanton: Matthew Knights’ first coaching display included a lot of skulduggery around Stanton. Rawlings went to Stanton as tagger before the opening bounce, and Knights promptly brought him off to try to break it, hoping that Rawlings would shift onto Watson. Dean Laidley was stubborn, and kept Rawlings off for as long as Stanton was off. Knights blinked first, and by the time Stanton got on the field Watson was in full cry and Stanton couldn’t pick up the pace of the game. All this ducks and drakes was entertaining for the football purists, and I suppose you could say Knights won the chess battle because he came away with the four points, but that little lesson wouldn’t have escaped him. Rest assured Stanton won’t be warming the pine at the start of next week’s game against Geelong.

Backs:
Chad Cornes (vc), Joel Bowden, Andrew McLeod, Martin Mattner, Brad Symes, Daniel Bradshaw, Nathan J. Brown.
Scott D. Thompson (e), Albert Proud.

Midfielders:
Adam Goodes (c), Nick Stevens, Bryce Gibbs, Bachar Houli, Travis Tuck, Kieran Jack.
Craig Bird (e), Jarryn Geary.

Rucks
Jeff White, Darren Jolly.
Matthew Kreuzer, Shaun Hampson.

Forwards:
Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, Brad Johnson, Jonathan Brown, Steve Johnson, Brett Deledio, Stuart Dew.
Kurt Tippett (e), Cyril Rioli.

I’m much happier with this team than my DT team, notwithstanding Gibbs’ round 1 performance. He’s easily replaceable.

For those few of you who had been hanging out to see it, here it is.

Backs:
Chad Cornes (vc), Joel Bowden, Heath Shaw, Brad Symes, Mark Nicoski, Xavier Ellis, Scott D. Thompson.
Lachie Hansen, Albert Proud.

Midfielders:
Kane Cornes (c), Nathan Jones, Nick Stevens, Bryce Gibbs, Travis Tuck, Craig Bird.
Jarryn Geary (e), Cale Morton.

Rucks:
Jeff White, Troy Simmonds.
Cameron Wood, Matthew Kreuzer.

Forwards:
Jonathan Brown, Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, Steve Johnson, Brad Johnson, Stuart Dew, Nathan Thompson.
Kurt Tippett (e), Cyril Rioli.

I’m not entirely happy with it. Gibbs has let me down already, albeit he did play in the middle for most of the game which is an improvement over back pocket. Another 50-odd and Gibbs is highly likely to get subbed out before round 3 for whoever looks more like this year’s Matt Priddis. I would have liked more time to go over the rookies who are actually playing in round 1… but that’s a topic for another post.

B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Grant Birchall
HB: Rick Ladson, Trent Croad, Thomas Murphy
C: Stuart Dew, Sam Mitchell, Clinton Young
HF: Cyril Rioli, Tim Boyle, Chance Bateman
F: Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin
Foll: Simon Taylor, Brad Sewell, Travis Tuck
Inter (from): Robert Campbell, Tim Clarke, Xavier Ellis, Josh J. Kennedy, Jarryd Morton, Michael Osborne, Cameron Stokes

B: Paul Wheatley, Nathan Carroll, Colin Garland
HB: Ricky Petterd, Daniel Bell, James McDonald
C: Brad Green, Brock McLean, Simon Buckley
HF: Cameron Bruce, Brad Miller, Adem Yze
F: Michael Newton, David Neitz, Russell Robertson
Foll: Jeff White, Aaron Davey, Nathan Jones
Inter: Mark Jamar, Jace Bode, James Frawley, Chris A. Johnson, Brent Moloney, Cale Morton, Isaac Weetra