Arguably the most surprising selection for round 13 is Collingwood naming Harry O’Brien after a shoulder dislocation in round 11 that was listed as having him out for at least another two weeks. Over at Nick’s there are rumblings that the whole thing is a furphy, the lads at Lulie St Dash think it’s a case of Mick’s mind games, and the Pie fans also wonder if Alan Didak will recover emotionally from his recent brush with the constabulary.

- Over at Red & White Online there is some gnashing of teeth at the exclusion of Heath Grundy because there is a huge Barry Hall-sized hole at full forward that needs to be filled. Peter Everitt is the fan favourite to be the shag on a rock, which would not only mean better things in fantasy terms for Darren Jolly but would also hurt Spida’s numbers, remembering of course that Jonathan Brown had a dirty day in much the same role last round at Skilled Stadium.
- The naming of Michael Newton gave the long-suffering Demon supporters at Demonology something to cheer about, as he has become a fan darling since being picked in the 2004 draft despite not getting a senior game before now. Not a huge Gray/Westhoff fantasy buzz about the boy, though.
- Hawks fans are mostly in agreement on BigFooty that the final changes on Sunday will be Lance Franklin in for Xavier Ellis. Slight chance of Mitchell Thorp being selected for his first game with Michael Osborne being the other bench player likely to be sacrificed.
- Similarly, no one at BomberBlitz is fooled by the naming of Brent Stanton who is a monty to be replaced by either Ricky Dyson or Angus Monfries, though Andrew Lovett may also be a late withdrawal so both Dyson and Monfries may play.
- Debate at Saintsational centres on the ruck, which the Saints did not bolster despite the injury to Justin Koschitzke. Michael Rix and Jason Blake will go up against Adam Pattison and a returning Troy Simmonds who has had a very limited preparation after major injury. Plenty of fantasy coaches will have their beady eyes firmly fixed on Simmonds’ performance against such weak opposition: if he can’t beat this lot, he’s not going to be worth picking up.
- A “slight doubt” on Aaron Edwards may mean that Djaran Whyman will survive the cut to make his AFL debut according to some iffy speculation on The Searching Kangaroo.
- The poor buggers at TalkingCarlton are whinging about a number of selection issues, with the prospect of Cain Ackland and Setanta O’hAilpin going up against Aaron Sandilands not filling anyone with confidence. Some speculation about the omission of Luke Blackwell whose six games so far this season had actually been very impressive in fantasy currency compared to his cheap price, but scores of 32 and 17 sealed his fate. The opinions of the fans as to Blackwell’s skill and workrate cast doubt on his future as a fantasy prospect.
- And finally, all is sweetness and light at Cat’s Claw with no hint of injury concerns down at Geelong. One wonders how long that will last…

UPDATE: Today’s Herald Sun reckons Hall could miss the rest of this season in a worst-case scenario. Not good, not good:

“The next stage may be, if we don’t think he can improve, to play him differently,” Roos said. “Or the next stage after that is maybe he doesn’t play again this year, which hopefully doesn’t happen.

This is one biiiig week for injuries. Barry Hall has been ruled out for this week’s match against Geelong - and the worrying thing is it sounds like it could be longer:

Sydney Swans coach Paul Roos said today that Hall was suffering from groin soreness and hopefully this would only see him missing from action for one week… “Hopefully with the weeks rest we will see him back next week for the Fremantle game.”

“Hopefully”, huh. Heard that before. About Nigel Lappin, earlier this year. I don’t think there’s any clear winners in the Swans squad from Hall’s injury - there’s been no-one step up in his recent run of bad form.

Anyway, Hall is owned by 34,190 DT coaches right now. This means a fair few coaches will venture into Emergency Land this week to cover Chris Judd and Justin Koschitzke’s injuries. God forbid that Matthew Pavlich or The Chad come down with a Windy Hill Virus - it will mean a round of DT survival of the fittest.

At least none of these guys are playing funny buggers with selections. That’s the one positive to come out of all this.

Well folks, there’s a few notable injuries to take into account at the moment.

Firstly, Chris Judd won’t play this week against Adelaide, and a rumour on BigFooty suggests he’ll miss 4 weeks (although that seems far-fetched). Brett Burton will miss another game for the Crows, and as this AAP story says, Simon Goodwin is also highly doubtful:

Burton (knee) has already been ruled out of Adelaide’s side to tackle the reigning premier at AAMI Stadium on Sunday, with influential midfielder Simon Goodwin (knee) also likely to be sidelined.

Brett Peake broke his collarbone for the second time this year in the WAFL last weekend, which means he should be a handy choice in Dream Team ‘08 after a bad start to this year left him with a season average of 47.

And while there’s been some speculation that Barry Hall will be “rested” (ie dropped), this article from Rohan Connolly indicates it’s all a bit of bluff. It was always looking unlikely, since Nick Davis and Michael O’Loughlin are uncertain starters for the Swans in their huge game against Geelong.

Dean Polo’s year is finished - he’ll need a shoulder reconstruction after Friday night’s game.

Elsewhere, Daniel Wells and Lance Franklin are good chances of playing, while Rhyce Shaw, James Clement and Adem Yze won’t. David Neitz is 50-50.

Edit: Justin Koschitzke has done a hamstring at training, and will miss this weekend’s match against Richmond. Will it be one week, or will Kosi’s usual luck with injuries persist, leaving the second-most-popular Dream Team player into fantasy wasteland?

Player of the week: Luke Hodge (149). Hodge racked up his fairly massive score two Fridays ago, in the first match of round 12 against the Blues, and it ended up being the highest of the round. From memory, he scored something like 60 points in the last quarter, showing a dead-rubber dedication that Ricky Ponting would be proud of.

Honourable mentions: Brad Sewell (143), Gary Ablett (139), Domenic Cassissi (133)

Biggest disappointment: Brendan Fevola (38). The biggest dud also came in the first game of the round, as Fev struggled against a smooth Hawks midfield machine. He’s now down to $237k, and will drop further since his breakeven is 102.

Other points of interest:

Barry Hall was very lucky not to end up with a Fev-like score this week; his total of 66 included around 40 points in the last quarter. It’s hard to judge where Hall is at - I can’t question his endeavour, but he’s spilling easy marks… all the time… Then again, the Swans midfield wasn’t in great touch on Saturday night.

- The good news is that if you’re willing to jump, there are several good replacements for Hall. Scott Lucas is cheap, Jonathan Brown is cheap, and Nathan G Brown looks in sharp nick, scoring a classy 88 in his first game back from injury.

- Other Tigers also had a good night in the win over Melbourne - Jake King scored his sixth +80 in a row, while Matthew Richardson top-scored with 128 (a great effort considering he kicked twice as many behinds as goals). Graeme Polak scored 117 - his second ton in a row, and third in the past four games - but Kane Johnson had a dud match, scoring just 60.

- For the Dees, it wasn’t as pretty. Jeff White knocked up 124 - nudging out Cox as the highest-scoring ruck for the round - but Cameron Bruce scored just 79, and James McDonald only 73. Brad Green registered 62, while hard nuts Brock McLean and Nathan Jones fared worst of all, scoring 50 and 48 respectively. Byron Pickett had a lowly 40 on his return to AFL, and Adem Yze had 17, which was affected by an injury that should keep him sidelined for a few weeks. One bright spark was Paul Johnson, who looked ok in gathering 74, his highest score ever. Johnson has good agility for a big bloke, and is one I’m thinking about for Dream Team 2008.

- Surprisingly, the Magpies’ midfield had a bad night (similar to the Demons) but ended up winning… Dane Swan scored 65, which means his price will slump and he’ll be in hot demand, while Scott Burns scored 66 and Tarkyn Lockyer scored 72. Josh Fraser scored 40, while Brett Kirk cleaned up with 116 and Adam Goodes ran back into some form, scoring 93 - his second-best score this season.

- The rumble in the West produced some big scores - Justin Koschitzke registered 113, his highest since round 17, 2005. Another to score well (relatively…) was Raphael Clarke, who racked up 77 - his highest since round 5, 2005. His brother Xavier scored just 38. Daniel Kerr and Matt Priddis both enjoyed more opportunity through Judd’

- Other points of interest were highlighted last week

It’s going to be hard not to link the DT Talk video podcast every week now because it’s turning into a ripper little show, but this week I have more reason than most, mainly because I appear in it! After a hilarious skit about the Jimmy Bartel/Matthew Scarlett kick-to-kick during round 12, Roy sets out the tough questions starting at about three minutes in. I have a swing at them via satellite, and there are a few shameful revelations along the way.

Most of the rest of the show centres around Roy’s relationship with Nathan Bock, which has broken down after 11 weeks of romantic turmoil with more insults and tantrums than a Hilton family dinner. Uncle Chop Chop takes his schtick to another level with some advice for Simon Black on how to deal with the “Pink Pig”, a.k.a. Cameron Ling. (Note to all Geelong players who live near me: I didn’t give Lingy that nickname, you’ll have to look up Chop next time you play at Aurora.)

Please note: there is no ‘Player of the Week’ and ‘Biggest Disappointment’ declarations this week – I’ll do them next week once all eight games have been played. We’re all about equality here at FanFooty!

Points of interest:  

Warren Tredrea’s great game against Essendon was either a long time coming or a flash in the pan, depending on who you talk to. Tredrea scored 88, but luckily his previous shocking form meant he only rose 8k, to $194k which means he’s still as cheap as chips. However, his breakeven is just 19 which means significant rises are only a few goals away. Port have the Lions next – is Tredrea a good bet at this price? That’s the hot question of the moment.

Joel Selwood continued his excellent debut season, scoring a career-high 121 against
Brisbane. The wet conditions suited the midfielder, and it’s interesting to note that he now has an identical average to that of Marc Murphy during both their first eight games. Considering all the hype about Murphy last year, Selwood is doing very well and probably not attracting the same fanfare. Owners of Gary Ablett will be pleased – he scored about 50 final-quarter points for a match total of 139, pipping Jimmy Bartel who pulled another hundred out with 129. The news wasn’t so good for other Cats players – Cameron Ling scored 69, Andrew Mackie registered 71, Corey Enright scored just 39, and young gun Kane Tenace had a disappointing 58.

Getting back to Bartel – personally, I think he’s topped out in price right now (which is a dangerous thing to say…) He’s up 11k to $456k, but his breakeven next week is 117. That’s after recent scores of 111 (Port), 150 (Saints), 117 (Crows) and now 129. He’s topped out. Kane Cornes is probably another who’s close to a price plateau; his breakeven is 121.

While those to are at the top of the rollercoaster, several other good midfielders are on their way down-town. Simon Black scored just 53 against the Cats, and is now priced at $312k with a breakeven of 155 – he’ll probably end up about $280k in two weeks. Jordan Lewis scored 67 – his third disappointing week in a row – while Mark Ricciuto scored 39 against the Kangaroos, meaning he slipped 27k. He’s now $267k with a breakeven of 160.

It’s not just midfielders who are feeling the damage. Scott Lucas fell nearly 30k to be $302k, (breakeven: 144) and teammate Matthew Lloyd is down to $288k with a breakeven of 130. Jonathan Brown is now $310k with a breakeven of 126 (he scored 64 against the Cats), and Brendan Fevola’s measly 38 against Hawthorn means he is down to just $237k, with a breakeven of over 118. Oh dear.

One final point: Adam Cooney did well in Daniel Cross’ absence, scoring 103 against the Fremantle midfield. It was Cooney’s second ton in a row – the first time he’s done that since round 10 & 11 two years ago. Could he be about to explode? He’s good value at $323k but has a breakeven of just 13… Discuss.

Hmm. After a medial ligament strain that had sideline reporters talking of a 4-6 week layoff last Saturday, Simon Goodwin is apparently a big chance to front up against the Kangaroos on Saturday night:

Goodwin, who has a low grade sprain of a medial ligament in his left knee, has completed some training in the past two days and seems certain to join the rest of the team on Friday morning’s flight to Brisbane. “He’s a real chance to play,” coach Neil Craig said.

After Heath Shaw’s Lazarus job last weekend I’ve given up predicting player health. The clubs are too good at obfuscation to let us mere mortals know wtf is going on. The good news is that the Crows will train at 3.30pm on Friday so if he pulls up lame again that will give fantasy coaches plenty of time to make other plans. Hope you didn’t pull the trade trigger too early!

UPDATE: Crows rule Goodwin out of clash… typical!

I enjoy reading the other fantasy AFL blogs out there, of which there are few and those that are out there tend to be rarely updated. DT Talk stands out of the pack as the second-best (behind us of course!) and they’ve gone the extra yard this week by launching a vidcast. It’s ten minutes of hardcore fantasy action with Calvin, Roy and W-Dog (a.k.a. Warnie), who appear to be Tasmanians who have imbibed too much Cascade Boag’s but in fact are bloody superheroes.

Episode #1 includes features such as “Overachievers, Happy-Withs and Axe Wounds”, “Ten Questions”, some highly appropriate pieces of advice for AFL players on whether to handball and how often to tackle, and “Chop’s Chopping Block” with a cutting cameo from a lovely, pleasant-looking lad called Chop. (Warning: a fair amount of colourful language, especially from Hutchy soundalike Calvin.)

I look forward to seeing more from this crew on their page over at YouTube, although I don’t quite think they’ll get picked up to work for official AFL outlets like Tom did…

Choco Williams and Warren Tredrea gave a press conference today, discussing Wozza’s recent poor form and his future at the club. You can read the report here, but the most interesting point is below:

Tredrea … reiterated the club’s long-held view that he would start to play somewhere nearer his peak in the second half of 2007.

If Tredrea can come good - and not 100-average good, but 80-average good - he’ll be a definite bargain right now at $186k, with further drops likely. (However, at those prices even bad scores don’t take a heap off, so Tredrea probably won’t fall a great deal.)

But even though he’s a cheapie who may well come good, Tredrea is probably too risky for many coaches out there. If you’re in need of a boost, I’d recomment the punt, but otherwise it’s worth steering clear for now.

With Barry Hall at $274k, Aker at $249k, and Ryan O’Keefe at $294k, there’s plenty of other (more reliable) forwards who will do very well for a good price.

Last week we told you how Round 11 Dream Team scores would be calculated into a State of Origin competition… Well, the scores are in, and congrats to the Redbacks for winning this State of Origin clash!

Later this year we may do it in a more exhaustive format, looking at 22 players instead of merely 4 for each team, but nevertheless here’s the results.

Team (back, centre, ruck, forward):

SOUTH AUST: total = 516. Brian Harris (WBD) 161, Scott Thompson (ADE) 143, Brendon Lade (PTA) 84, Matthew Pavlich (FRE) 128

VIC: Total = 484. Dustin Fletcher (ESS) 130, Matthew Boyd (WBD) 138, Peter Everitt (SYD) 102, Brad Johnson (WBD) 114

WEST AUST: Total 446. Brett Jones (WCE) 124, Peter Bell (FRE) 134, Dean Cox (WCE) 86, Lance Franklin (HAW) 102

ALLIES: Total = 443. Josh Drummond (BRI) 111, James Hird (ESS) 116, Jamie Charman (BRI) 92, Russell Robertson (MEL) 114

** NB: Cut out the captain-scoring-double thing, due to Harris being the highest scorer this week by a mile. That function was intended to complicate the results, not exaggerate them.