Player of the week: Leigh Fisher. Take a bow, Fish. Your half-time score of 104 was good enough, but you followed up to finish with 147 points, in a quality Dream Team display that will have every one of your owners bursting with happiness. You may have infuriated every single fan at the MCG, but it was a perfect DT game: Plenty of stats (18 marks, every single one uncontested) and no impact so the opposition doesn’t worry about shutting you down. The only down side is your final quarter, which netted just five points, as you only registered a kick and a handball.

Biggest disappointment: The Sydney - Port Adelaide game. Too many guns scored poorly in this game, so I’m giving this title to the whole bloody match instead. Consider this: Chad Cornes = 38. Ryan O’Keefe = 37. Danyle Pearce = 48. Adam Goodes = 65 (not as bad as some of his scores this year, but still bad). Shaun Burgoyne and Steven Salopek = 55 each. Brendon Lade = 46. Warren Tredrea = 33 (I know he’s injured, but 33 is a shocker). And to top it off, the normally reliable Brett Kirk got 31. Yup folks, that match was a piss-poor one for pretty much every DT coach. The only respite came through the genuine guns of Kane Cornes, Nick Malceski, and Tadhg Kennelly, who all scored decently.

Other points of interest:

• Richmond’s young ruck/forward Adam Pattison helped himself to 107 points in their honourable Friday night loss to Adelaide. Patto has been much maligned, but there’s no way Plough will drop him from now on, and he does actually have some considerable talent for a big bloke. He could well be beginning a mid-season form patch after hitting his gears. Cameron Howat also did well with 96 , and he is a performer who has slipped under the radar of a lot of DT coaches

• The Johnsons – Steve and Michael – both topped the ton in Saturday’s Geelong v Freo match. The forward (Steve) and back (Michael) both have midfield potential, in my opinion, and both are worth careful consideration when you’re going about your upgrade plans over the next few weeks. Steve is better value, although Mick has more potential for consistently big scores. Keep an eye on this blog in the coming days for more

• Another worth watching is Kane Tenace, who recorded 79. Tenace has been in blistering form in the VFL, but as we all know that doesn’t always translate well into the big league. There have always been doubts about his kicking, but if he can keep racking up numbers like that consistently, not a single DT coach will care

• Andrew Carrazzo kept up his steady form, scoring 115 in the Blues’ loss to the Roos. Meanwhile, Lindsay Thomas and Matt Campbell both didn’t disgrace themselves for North Melbourne, with Thomas scoring 78 in his return from injury, and Campbell getting 65 after a single-figure game last week against Essendon

• Leon Davis snared a surprising 92, which was his best game since round eight last year. Just don’t expect the same situation next week – small forwards, like Davis, are notoriously unreliable

• At the other end of the scale, Dane Swan had a bad day by his standards, collecting just 76 against the Bulldogs. Swan is a proven DT performer, and his sky-high price will plummet as a result of that, so keep him in mind. Daniel Kerr’s price should also fall (even if it was his best game in four weeks), although you should not do anything about drafting him in until the tribunal has sorted through its paperwork after his clash with Cameron Bruce

• Jared Brennan scored his third under-30 game for the year, to go with his two 100+ efforts. This bloke is the most inconsistent DT player going around – and I’m happy to debate that with anyone

• Adam Campbell, from Fremantle, scored just 16, a week after kicking four goals against Hawthorn

• Young Queenslander Sam Gilbert, for the Saints, was a good player on Saturday night, racking up 95 points. Another banana-bender, the highly-rated David Armitage, looked composed out in the middle although didn’t win a heap of ball in his debut game. Armitage scored 46

Gee writes:

Hey with 284900 to spend on a C, who is the better long term buy after round 7? Young (Haw), Murphy (car), Winderlich (Ess), Cooney (Wbd) or goodes (Syd)

First of all, I would not touch Adam Goodes. He is obviously struggling with injury, and the Swans’ strategy of playing its stars through injury is not paying off. Plus my co-host of the Coaches Box podcast, Molly, said in Episode #4 that Goodes had a poor year after his first Brownlow so there’s a trend happening.

I don’t like Adam Cooney as a fantasy player. In a position where you would expect scoring consistency, Cooney too often turns in a shocker, as he has for two of the past three weeks. When he’s good he’s very very good, but when he’s bad he’s rotten, as the saying goes. You can find players who will give you much less grief.

Marc Murphy managed to rescue his scoring this week to a respectable 97, but two 60-or-lesses in the past month just doesn’t cut it. His role in the Blues midfield is too important, and there aren’t enough good mids around him to take the tagging pressure off him. He’s going to hold his value but not much else.

The last two, Clinton Young and Jason Winderlich, have had similar seasons: a jump in fantasy production over last year then a short-term injury which hurt their scoring for a week, but they have both bounced back strong from those setbacks and look to be excellent value for the rest of the season. Either of those two would be a great pickup. Personally I prefer the Hawk but then again, I’m biased.

Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.

Old, Slow Starters

Alan Didak, COL FWD: $325,900, 127 BE, 69 avg
Jason Johnson, ESS CTR: $341,900, 97 BE, 90.5 avg

Didak had some fantasy wraps on him coming into the season but a long-term injury has nixed his value. Johnson burnt a lot of coaches last year with his poor early form and spotty selection issues, so it’s going to take a lot of consecutive tons or 90+s for confidence to be restored in him.

Struggle Street

Peter Street, WBD RUC: $219,700, 96 BE, 41.5 avg

Nup. No. Nada. Uh uh.

The Prodigal Son

Steve Johnson, GEE FWD: $263,900, 41 BE, 87 avg

Johnson has a bee in his bonnet after being suspended by his teammates for off-field indiscretions for the first five rounds, which has seen a jump in his production. His numbers are dodgy though, since the previous week his 97 was gathered in a 157-point win where practically every Cat player had a good fantasy day, and this week’s 79 is more like the top end of his scoring potential. Look elsewhere for value in the forwards.

Pre-Season Potential

Matt White, RIC CTR: $197,400, 60 BE, 50.5 avg
Matt Thomas, PTA CTR: $183,100, 43 BE, 53 avg

Both of these Matts were taken in the first round of last year’s pre-season draft, but they are taking a while to come on. I’ve been watching White more closely, and it’s probably a sign that he’s not such hot stuff that he hasn’t got more of a run for the Tigers given how poorly their first 22 has played this season. Thomas is probably suffering more from opportunity than anything, and given he scored 32 this week he might get dropped. Both players won’t figure in fantasy calculations this year, but are worth keeping an eye on for 2008 when they enter their crucial third year.

The Next Fiora?

Shane Birss, STK CTR: $174,100, 20 BE, 61 avg

Those who saw Aaron Fiora explode this season at the Saints and cursed themselves for missing out might also be looking at fellow two-club player Birss and wondering if the same thing will happen. However, Birss’s numbers aren’t so flash and his selection is spotty at best. Better value elsewhere.

Another Lamb To The Slaughter

Matthew Warnock, MEL BAC: $98,200, -10 BE, 45 avg

Demons backs are still getting plenty of the ball, and Warnock was looking good after his round 6 score of 61, but a 29 in round 7 means he’s only good for a bench spot… and this is the wrong week for Warnock to be on the bubble because there’s a far better prospect in his position.

The Rookie Centres

Kieren Jack, SYD CTR: $69,600, -13 BE, 35 avg
Ross Young, CAR CTR: $69,600, -34 BE, 45.5 avg

Bench fodder only. But are you really looking for bench fodder in your centres at this stage of the season? Probably not. You’d rather be jumping on some mid-tiers or upgrading to a premium at this stage, if you are looking at your centres at all.

The Rookie Forwards

Adam Campbell, FRE FWD: $82,500, -27 BE, 47.5 avg
Jarrod Harbrow, WBD FWD: $69,600, -28 BE, 42.5 avg

Campbell arguably won the Dockers the game this week against Hawthorn, so he deserves at least a look by fantasy coaches because he’s most likely won himself a spot in the team for the next little while on that performance. I bet plenty of coaches will be looking at a straight Campbell-for-Campbell swap, Matt for Adam, after Matt’s paltry 8 this week. It would be a gamble, nevertheless, since a 40 and a 55 are hardly 22 material. Harbrow may turn out to be better cash cow material in the end - I’d say it’s a 50/50 proposition about which player will be better value - and that extra $12,900 will probably come in handy so plenty of coaches will go for the Bulldog.

Bubble Boy Of The Week

Joey Jesse, I’m Not Angry Any More

Jesse W. Smith, KAN BAC: $91,600, -81 BE, 78 avg

Can’t argue with that average, price or breakeven. JWS is going to make his way into thousands of teams this week… certainly into mine to replace the injured Brendon Goddard! Those who held onto Justin Koschitzke, Nathan Bock, Xavier Clarke or Andrew Raines through their tribulations might also decide that they have topped out, and JWS is the perfect exchange.

Player of the week: Tyson Edwards. In his 250^th game, Edwards was everywhere. Goodwin and Knights started stronger, but Edwards ran out the game better to rack up plenty of touches, and a good goal, after the match was sealed; perfect for DT coaches. He’s an interesting choice – not many coaches have him, but he’s a pretty consistent performer who feasts on the possessions. Could be a very useful upgrade in weeks to come

Apologies: Andrew Carazzo, Heath Black, Brett Deledio

Biggest disappointment: Cain Ackland. With Cam Cloke out, plenty would have expected Ackland to shoulder more of the load, racking up a few more points. Instead, Ackland was second-choice ruck to a skinny Irishman, and scored a measly 24 points. Matthew Pavlich should consider himself lucky that a late goal took him up to 43, handing this ‘award’ to Ackland, while Daniel Wells and Brendon Goddard were ineligible due to injury.

Other points of interest:

Luke Ball cracked the ton for the first time this season, with an incredible 56 points scored through tackles. His count of 14 tackles was more than double the next best of six, from
Sydney’s Brett Kirk who is no tackling slouch himself. Keep that in mind, gang – a good tackler racks up the points. Even Steven Milne had more kicks than Ball, but he only scored 76

Kouta’s return to footy didn’t do anything for his DT prospects – a measly 18 was all that he has to show for it

Jimmy Bartel again played a brilliant DT game, racking up 118 against the Weagles. Everyone’s harping about Daniel Kerr’s “doughnut” in the second half yesterday, but 61 isn’t exactly bad for half a game’s work. Don’t be fooled – Kerr got several tackles in the second half, even if he didn’t touch the pill. And on that note, keep an eye on Kerr’s price after next week, since he needs to score over 160 to avoid dropping even lower

Daniel Cross and Brad Johnson, the machine men, again both topped 100 for the Dogs. Scott West, surprisingly, had a downer with 70-odd, while Adam Cooney was back in the money with 93. For the Dees, Colin Sylvia showed why a pre-season will make him a gun if he ever has one, scoring 112, but Brent Moloney’s shocker of just 30 will see his price plummet.

Adam Goodes dropped slightly in price, but appeared to regain some of his touch on Saturday night, I thought. It’s welcome news to many DT coaches who will be eyeing him off at the cheap-as-chips price of $256k. It won’t get lower – his break-even this week is just 64.

Nathan G. Brown says he’s aiming for a Round 10 comeback, after continuing soreness in his left leg which he broke last year. Brown made the call on The Footy Show last night - the first newsworthy comment to come from eight episodes this year.

At $235,600, Brown represents excellent value for Dream Team coaches, even accounting for his injury worries. He was in cracking pre-season form, and that price is a Monty (boom boom) to rise - if he can make it on the park.

There’s a few cheap-ish forwards around, including Warren Tredrea, but Brown would be a certain addition to pretty much every elite Dream Team. He could be a very handy trade target in a few weeks time - but don’t count on anything. It’s too risky to factor him into your upgrade/downgrade plans.

the vanberlo monologues (nice name mate!) from BigFooty writes:

Monty, as the respected runner of fanfooty.com i value your opinion. I posted this on the forums but i didn’t get any decent replys. The question is, is lockyer or fletcher better to get considering the 10 point difference in average and the 50,000 difference in price?

A loyal fan, gilbee

Okay, so you’re trying to choose between two players who have stepped up markedly this year. Tarkyn Lockyer is on $385,600 and averaging 107.5, while Dustin Fletcher is priced at $339,000 with an average of 97.8.

You probably can’t go wrong with either player, but I think Fletcher is a little better value for money. Fletcher’s breakeven score this week is 57 compared to Lockyer’s 80, and the FFGenie program rates Lockyer’s “real price” (based on his 2007 scoring) as only $11k more than his actual price, while Fletcher still has $21k to make up. Outside of the raw numbers, you have to worry a bit more about Fletcher’s aging body, but then again you also have to worry a bit about Collingwood dropping away after the April/May period, which they did last year and is a bit of a long-term trend for them.

I’d give it to Fletcher by a long nose. Spend that extra $50,000 on upgrading your rookies, that’s my advice.

Player of the week: Lance Franklin. Apologies to Nick Dal Santo, who equalled Franklin’s very nice score of 136, but for the unexpected factor and sheer surprise, Lance takes the cake. His price has just got over the $300k mark, a jump of over $80k this season, and last weekend’s performance looked terrific. Will it keep up? Who knows. Those coaches who own him will be happy with 90 a week, let alone 130+. Interesting, though, that while Buddy has all guns blazing this season, his partner in crime Jarryd Roughead has had a shithouse start. He’s averaging less than 40, and has actually dropped $45k on the start of the year. Oh dear.

Biggest disappointment: Brett Deledio. Paul Hasleby, consider yourself lucky. The Haze had a shocker, scoring just 29 against Brisbane, but Lids was nowhere to be seen as the Tigers were smashed by the Cats. His crapness wasn’t a good sign for the future, and with his price sinking below $260k, he’s not one you want right now.

Other points of interest:

- Aaron Edwards had a nice 95 against the Swans on Saturday night; Edwards is looking better with every game. Pretty soon, as Alwyn Davey’s blistering form starts to fade, Edwards may become the pin-up boy (man? He’s 23…) of this year’s cash-cow draftees

- The Shaw brothers topped 100, each, for the second week in a row. They’re in mental form, racking up stats at will across the half-back line. Kudos to anyone who has them both

- Justin Koschitzke had a day out against Carlton, with the 103 being easily his best game for the year. He’s in a lot of teams, is old Kosi, and some will be considering a trade to free up cash. Don’t do it – it’s a wasted trade. He’s got far more improvement to come, yet. Let’s hope Gardiner stays injured for a while

- Another lad who’s owned by a heap of coaches, Chris Judd, had a brilliant match against the Bulldogs, scoring 127 with some fine numbers; 34 possessions, and six tackles. Despite this, his price has actually fallen 14k this year

- Adam Cooney followed up last week’s shocker with a mediocre 66. Could be a handy trade acquisition if his poor form continues for a third week in a row, and his price falls away

- The biggest mystery in DT this year, Nigel Lappin, scored a great 101 against Fremantle. His price is going to riiiise up this week, so if you’re going to plunge, now’s no time to hesitate

- In the Cats – Tigers massacre, Geelong had a massive six players score over 100; Gabbo (Gary Ablett) starred with 129, but Mr Mackie, Milburn, Joel Corey, Ottens and Enright all backed up. Stunning stuff. Surprisingly, Jim Bartel, one of the top scorers this year, didn’t crack 100, while Paul Chapman scored 70, with about 69 of those coming in a huge first quarter

- Finally, I could have given the BD (biggest disappointment) tag to Nick Davis, who scored merely three (yep, you read it right). That’s awful for a guy who was worth $280k (it’s now $250). But I felt like a Tiger deserved it this week

Before I go: I’ll be doing some analysis over the next few weeks, position-by-position, around the best cash cow options; downgrading and upgrading. Watch this space

- Tom

Make Or Break is a new feature I’m testing out on this blog, and on next week’s Coaches Box podcast, where I try and predict whether certain players will beat their B/E or breakeven number (the Dream Team score they need to get to so that their price does not fall). To make it challenging, I’ll only choose twelve players which grimlock’s FFGenie program gives between around a 40-60% chance to break even… and then I’ll mark myself each week to see if I can beat the Genie!

Matthew Pavlich, FRE FWD: $354400, 90 B/E, 97.4 avg for 2007, 87.3 avg in last 3
If you don’t have him you might be eyeing him off this week as an upgrade target after his dip in price. However, this week he comes up against the Lions at home, and apart from the fact that Freo has never won at the Gabba, the Lions like to flood and Pav didn’t cope all that well with the Crows flooding last week.
FFGenie says: MAKE - 52.0%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Jonathan Brown, BRL FWD: $351300, 71 B/E, 80 avg for 2007, 90.0 avg in last 3
Lock this one in, Brown’s a shoe-in for 71. Still pretty damn expensive as an upgrade target though, so it would be difficult to find someone worth selling off in your team to get him.
FFGenie says: MAKE - 54.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Justin Sherman, BRL CTR: $260400, 59 B/E, 59.6 avg for 2007, 57.3 avg in last 3
This one is a coin flip based on those numbers, but the bigger story is that the Shermanator has been given a defensive role this season so his fantasy production has really stalled. If Matthews ever finds it in his heart to include Sherman in midfield rotations again he will dominate, but until then he’s going to disappoint.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 43.5%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Xavier Clarke, STK BAC: $232600, 69 B/E, 69.2 avg for 2007, 61.3 avg in last 3
Plenty of coaches drafted in the X-Man to their backlines this year, either at the start or after he snagged a ton in the first week, but since then he has been shifted around to cover for the Saints’ terrible injury list. This week he has been named on the half forward flank, which is a true indicator of his current role, and one which will dampen his pointscoring potential. Thankfully he’s playing the Blues this week, which should see his numbers boosted enough to get him over the line.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 44.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Jordan McMahon, WBD BAC: $321300, 88 B/E, 87.8 avg for 2007, 91.7 avg in last 3
The wide spaces of Subiaco suit some teams and players more than others, but I don’t think McMahon will get enough room to move with the hard-tackling Eagles forward line to make that rather high number.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 34.9%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Paul Chapman, GEE FWD: $371600, 102 B/E, 101.6 avg for 2007, 97.7 avg in last 3
Listeners to the Coaches Box podcast will know that I sweated over Chappy’s game last week because the bugger scored just enough to hand my team a league defeat. Against the Tigers you can mark him down for another big lazy ton.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 39.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Brett Ebert, PTA FWD: $247000, 71 B/E, 69.8 avg for 2007, 57.7 avg in last 3
Ebert’s impressive early season form, carried on from late last season, has evaporated with the return of Warren Tredrea. He’s not going to figure in fantasy calculations in the near future.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 38.1%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Brad Johnson, WBD FWD: $368800, 106 B/E, 104 avg for 2007, 91.3 avg in last 3
BJ has struggled mightily in recent weeks, especially with his kicking. It is testament to his greatness as a fantasy forward that he has only been dropping 15-20 points off his average during that time. Expect him to take advantage of the wide wings at Subiaco with plenty of leading and marking up the ground.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 37.8%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Shaun Burgoyne, PTA CTR: $343600, 89 B/E, 87.4 avg for 2007, 91.0 avg in last 3
After a sub-60 in the first week, Junior Burger hasn’t dipped below 86, so I’d back him to at least match 89 this week, especially against the decimated Demons.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 35.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Simon Black, BRL CTR: $318900, 88 B/E, 86.2 avg for 2007, 77.7 avg in last 3
I have to agree with the raw numbers on this one. Many coaches picked up Black based on his excellent NAB Cup form or his 119 in Round 1, and have been suffering ever since. Unfortunately it’s not going to get any better, especially this week with the Freo midfield machine in town.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 36.2%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Ben Fixter, BRL CTR: $219300, 69 B/E, 67.4 avg for 2007, 60.3 avg in last 3
Fixter has been a surprise packet this year, building on a very nice fantasy year in 2006 by going to the next level. However, he is named on the bench again this week, which is rarely a good indicator for fantasy purposes, and his last two weeks have not been quite as good as his first two.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 37.3%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Richard Tambling, RIC CTR: $268900, 77 B/E, 70.8 avg for 2007, 85.3 avg in last 3
Bling could bust through his B/E score in a quarter and then not touch it for the rest of the game, he’s that kind of player. He’s had three poor weeks and two good ones, so he’s hard to pick. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that against the Cats under the Dome, he’s going to make it… though there’s every chance he’ll stink it up.
FFGenie says: BREAK - 35.0%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Feel free to make your own predictions in the comments, and we’ll see who can do the best!

daniel writes:

i was wondering where i can submit my team for it to be reviewed…it would be greatly appreciated to get some feedback from someone who really knows what they are talking about….

Team: Danz DEEstroyers
Coach: Daniel
Competition: Dream Team
As at round: 5
Ranking: 592
Money Left: $14,800

Backs: Jordan McMahon, Jess Sinclair, Grant Birchall, Darren Milburn, Joel Bowden, Jed Adcock, Justin Koschitzke, Xavier Ellis, David Trotter

Centres: Scott West, Cameron Bruce, Kane Cornes, Sam Mitchell, David Rodan, Joel Selwood, Bryce Gibbs, Richard Hadley

Rucks: Aaron Sandilands, Dean Cox, Ben Hudson, Patrick Ryder

Forwards: Chad Cornes, Matthew Lloyd, Dale Thomas, Angus Monfries, Damon White, Lance Franklin, Alwyn Davey, Tom Hawkins, Aaron Edwards

I like this team! A ranking of 592 is just reward for a team this good. Unlike most teams I’ve seen, Daniel has gone with two premium rucks, which is guaranteed to get a high score from me. Patrick Ryder on the bench is also a good get, I don’t think many people would have picked him as a fantasy sleeper this year. No doubt a lot of that high ranking has been due to solid captain choices, and with West and Kornes in your side you never have to suffer a dud captain’s score.

The only query I’d have on this team is that it’s too top-heavy in the centres, with four premiums and only two rookies, while the forwards are filled with less than impressive mid-tiers. Lloyd has underperformed badly this year and that was predictable given the extent of his injury last year, though in Dan’s defence not many would have predicted that Kevin Sheedy would use Lloyd up the field in a different role. Monfries is too inconsistent to merit a long-term spot. White just doesn’t get enough of the ball to be a decent fantasy player… I’m guessing Dan was taking the chance that he’d step up this season in the early-season absence of Warren Tredrea but that didn’t quite work out.

The big advantage to Dan’s strategy is that there are two golden trade targets coming up in the next couple of weeks. Dan is in an excellent position to buy the aforementioned Tredrea and Nick Riewoldt, probably getting rid of White and Monfries in the process. After that, all he needs is to upgrade Lloyd to a true premium like Matthew Pavlich and he can leave everything but his rookies alone.

-1 for Lloyd and -0.5 for Monfries and White, giving a score of 8/10… which looks rather harsh in retrospect. A solid team that a lot of coaches could learn from. Good luck Dan!

Jase84 writes:

Hey guys, I have a total of 13 trades left for the season. I want to know whether or nor I should keep Marc Murphy or get rid of him. Money isn’t really an issue with plenty of cash cows.

Marc Murphy should be the least of your problems. He is averaging 79, which is about what he averaged last year. His price did go down this week but it is $700 up for the year, which in DT terms means it’s pretty much flat.

You may be thinking that that is not good enough, but you have 30 positions on your roster and only 20 trades, so that means that you need a large number of players to be completely dependable every week. All fantasy sides need at least a handful of players who might not have the potential to be superstars, but they can be relied upon to put in 22 solid games. Murphy is one of these: a set-and-forget type of player. Keep him in your lineup and forget about him… worry about your other positions.