Boys On The Bubble is a weekly feature looking at players who played their second game on the weekend and thus are eligible to change in price this week if they’re picked again. The B/E number below stands for Break Even, referring to the Dream Team score that the player must make to have his price rise after his third game.
Old, Slow Starters
Alan Didak, COL FWD: $325,900, 127 BE, 69 avg
Jason Johnson, ESS CTR: $341,900, 97 BE, 90.5 avg
Didak had some fantasy wraps on him coming into the season but a long-term injury has nixed his value. Johnson burnt a lot of coaches last year with his poor early form and spotty selection issues, so it’s going to take a lot of consecutive tons or 90+s for confidence to be restored in him.
Struggle Street
Peter Street, WBD RUC: $219,700, 96 BE, 41.5 avg
Nup. No. Nada. Uh uh.
The Prodigal Son
Steve Johnson, GEE FWD: $263,900, 41 BE, 87 avg
Johnson has a bee in his bonnet after being suspended by his teammates for off-field indiscretions for the first five rounds, which has seen a jump in his production. His numbers are dodgy though, since the previous week his 97 was gathered in a 157-point win where practically every Cat player had a good fantasy day, and this week’s 79 is more like the top end of his scoring potential. Look elsewhere for value in the forwards.
Pre-Season Potential
Matt White, RIC CTR: $197,400, 60 BE, 50.5 avg
Matt Thomas, PTA CTR: $183,100, 43 BE, 53 avg
Both of these Matts were taken in the first round of last year’s pre-season draft, but they are taking a while to come on. I’ve been watching White more closely, and it’s probably a sign that he’s not such hot stuff that he hasn’t got more of a run for the Tigers given how poorly their first 22 has played this season. Thomas is probably suffering more from opportunity than anything, and given he scored 32 this week he might get dropped. Both players won’t figure in fantasy calculations this year, but are worth keeping an eye on for 2008 when they enter their crucial third year.
The Next Fiora?
Shane Birss, STK CTR: $174,100, 20 BE, 61 avg
Those who saw Aaron Fiora explode this season at the Saints and cursed themselves for missing out might also be looking at fellow two-club player Birss and wondering if the same thing will happen. However, Birss’s numbers aren’t so flash and his selection is spotty at best. Better value elsewhere.
Another Lamb To The Slaughter
Matthew Warnock, MEL BAC: $98,200, -10 BE, 45 avg
Demons backs are still getting plenty of the ball, and Warnock was looking good after his round 6 score of 61, but a 29 in round 7 means he’s only good for a bench spot… and this is the wrong week for Warnock to be on the bubble because there’s a far better prospect in his position.
The Rookie Centres
Kieren Jack, SYD CTR: $69,600, -13 BE, 35 avg
Ross Young, CAR CTR: $69,600, -34 BE, 45.5 avg
Bench fodder only. But are you really looking for bench fodder in your centres at this stage of the season? Probably not. You’d rather be jumping on some mid-tiers or upgrading to a premium at this stage, if you are looking at your centres at all.
The Rookie Forwards
Adam Campbell, FRE FWD: $82,500, -27 BE, 47.5 avg
Jarrod Harbrow, WBD FWD: $69,600, -28 BE, 42.5 avg
Campbell arguably won the Dockers the game this week against Hawthorn, so he deserves at least a look by fantasy coaches because he’s most likely won himself a spot in the team for the next little while on that performance. I bet plenty of coaches will be looking at a straight Campbell-for-Campbell swap, Matt for Adam, after Matt’s paltry 8 this week. It would be a gamble, nevertheless, since a 40 and a 55 are hardly 22 material. Harbrow may turn out to be better cash cow material in the end - I’d say it’s a 50/50 proposition about which player will be better value - and that extra $12,900 will probably come in handy so plenty of coaches will go for the Bulldog.
Bubble Boy Of The Week
Joey Jesse, I’m Not Angry Any More
Jesse W. Smith, KAN BAC: $91,600, -81 BE, 78 avg
Can’t argue with that average, price or breakeven. JWS is going to make his way into thousands of teams this week… certainly into mine to replace the injured Brendon Goddard! Those who held onto Justin Koschitzke, Nathan Bock, Xavier Clarke or Andrew Raines through their tribulations might also decide that they have topped out, and JWS is the perfect exchange.

Trade Kosi now? You’d be mad wouldnt ya?!
How could Jesse Smith’s BE be 81 considering his average and his value?
BTW Love the site!
How could Jesse Smith’s B.E be 81 considering his average and value?
And Steve Johnson, in the VFL anyway, was starting to drift into the midfield, picking up plenty of numbers.
The man is on a mission, I reckon. While he costs 263, he’s worth around 300, and will average around 80 ish.
It’s a pity that his low-price week coincides with (Nick) Riewoldt being as cheap as buggery.
I have a backline that looks like this:
Cornes
Mcphee
Gilbee
Adcock
GODDARD
Kozzie
Boyle
Im a little confused as to whether or not replace Goddard with, say, a Heath Shaw type scorer, or perhaps down grade in value to a Jessie Smith or brett jones or beau waters type player and then upgrade my midfield… e.g get rid of rodan for cross or bartel etc… would anyone care to give me some advice on the matter?
I too am considering the Rodan trade, now that Goodwin is staggeringly cheap considering his history - however, i almost feel bad trading a player that has earned me so much money!!
On the backline factor - ive had JWS since round one, so am VERY happy on his scores… although, his 101 this week was (i feel) mainly because he moved into the position in the centre of the injured Wells. So could be very good value for the next 6 weeks whilst Wells is out…
I also have Goddard (dammit!), and have gone with the upgrade option! I chose Lockyer, due to his consistent scores, and the fact it’s his 150th game - the team should play the ball to him!
My main question though, is, Has Bock had his day?? Or is he gonna return to form?? any opinions?? I have enough cash to upgrade him to Ashley Hansen… Good idea?? Cos i done wanna trade him and he gets 116 again…
(i traded C. Cornes after round two, and have regretted it since!!)
I was in that same predicament this week…
I had Goddard, and decided on the upgrade (however, i did have a spare $168000) and already own JWS.
I feel at this stage of the year, the upgrade is a better option, and some of those champion backliners are having great seasons. Someone like Lockyer for example is having a great year (in the MIDFIELD!!), and celebrates his 150th game this week - a reason for the team to give him more than his fair share of the ball!!
As for the midfield… i too am tempted with upgrading Rodan with my spare $68,000 for someone like Goodwin…
But also, Bock is annoying the hell out of me…
So my question is:
Do i trade Bock for Ashley Hansen??
Or Rodan for Goodwin??
And what has happened to Bock?? After 3 fantastic games, he can barely get his hands on the darn thing!! Anyone able to fill me in???
i say give bock time, adelaide are doing a lot of reshuffling, and if you listen to Nathan bassett this week, he made a comment of them restructuring where everyone played to compensate for their injury list. Bock is quality, and im not saying rodan isnt, but rodan will never earn in the DT comp what goodwin has the potential to earn. Goodwin, when playing well, could be worth a cross, or dare i say it, a bartel…
Bock is in my forward line and I don’t have the patience to keep him. Especially when he has a B/E of 100 this round. I’ll probably be doing a Bock - > Riewoldt trade after freeing up some cash from Campbell - > Harbrow
If I had another trade I’d be picking up Jesse Smith in my backline too
I have
Cornes
Fletcher
Shaw
Gilbee
Waters
Adcock
Birchall
But I want to free up cash sitting in Lachlan Hansen on my bench at 110k - take this cash for a centre top-tier upgrade