FanFooty

Make Or Break: Round 6

Make Or Break is a new feature I’m testing out on this blog, and on next week’s Coaches Box podcast, where I try and predict whether certain players will beat their B/E or breakeven number (the Dream Team score they need to get to so that their price does not fall). To make it challenging, I’ll only choose twelve players which grimlock’s FFGenie program gives between around a 40-60% chance to break even… and then I’ll mark myself each week to see if I can beat the Genie!

Matthew Pavlich, FRE FWD: $354400, 90 B/E, 97.4 avg for 2007, 87.3 avg in last 3
If you don’t have him you might be eyeing him off this week as an upgrade target after his dip in price. However, this week he comes up against the Lions at home, and apart from the fact that Freo has never won at the Gabba, the Lions like to flood and Pav didn’t cope all that well with the Crows flooding last week.
FFGenie says: MAKE – 52.0%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Jonathan Brown, BRL FWD: $351300, 71 B/E, 80 avg for 2007, 90.0 avg in last 3
Lock this one in, Brown’s a shoe-in for 71. Still pretty damn expensive as an upgrade target though, so it would be difficult to find someone worth selling off in your team to get him.
FFGenie says: MAKE – 54.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Justin Sherman, BRL CTR: $260400, 59 B/E, 59.6 avg for 2007, 57.3 avg in last 3
This one is a coin flip based on those numbers, but the bigger story is that the Shermanator has been given a defensive role this season so his fantasy production has really stalled. If Matthews ever finds it in his heart to include Sherman in midfield rotations again he will dominate, but until then he’s going to disappoint.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 43.5%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Xavier Clarke, STK BAC: $232600, 69 B/E, 69.2 avg for 2007, 61.3 avg in last 3
Plenty of coaches drafted in the X-Man to their backlines this year, either at the start or after he snagged a ton in the first week, but since then he has been shifted around to cover for the Saints’ terrible injury list. This week he has been named on the half forward flank, which is a true indicator of his current role, and one which will dampen his pointscoring potential. Thankfully he’s playing the Blues this week, which should see his numbers boosted enough to get him over the line.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 44.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Jordan McMahon, WBD BAC: $321300, 88 B/E, 87.8 avg for 2007, 91.7 avg in last 3
The wide spaces of Subiaco suit some teams and players more than others, but I don’t think McMahon will get enough room to move with the hard-tackling Eagles forward line to make that rather high number.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 34.9%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Paul Chapman, GEE FWD: $371600, 102 B/E, 101.6 avg for 2007, 97.7 avg in last 3
Listeners to the Coaches Box podcast will know that I sweated over Chappy’s game last week because the bugger scored just enough to hand my team a league defeat. Against the Tigers you can mark him down for another big lazy ton.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 39.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Brett Ebert, PTA FWD: $247000, 71 B/E, 69.8 avg for 2007, 57.7 avg in last 3
Ebert’s impressive early season form, carried on from late last season, has evaporated with the return of Warren Tredrea. He’s not going to figure in fantasy calculations in the near future.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 38.1%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Brad Johnson, WBD FWD: $368800, 106 B/E, 104 avg for 2007, 91.3 avg in last 3
BJ has struggled mightily in recent weeks, especially with his kicking. It is testament to his greatness as a fantasy forward that he has only been dropping 15-20 points off his average during that time. Expect him to take advantage of the wide wings at Subiaco with plenty of leading and marking up the ground.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 37.8%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Shaun Burgoyne, PTA CTR: $343600, 89 B/E, 87.4 avg for 2007, 91.0 avg in last 3
After a sub-60 in the first week, Junior Burger hasn’t dipped below 86, so I’d back him to at least match 89 this week, especially against the decimated Demons.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 35.2%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Simon Black, BRL CTR: $318900, 88 B/E, 86.2 avg for 2007, 77.7 avg in last 3
I have to agree with the raw numbers on this one. Many coaches picked up Black based on his excellent NAB Cup form or his 119 in Round 1, and have been suffering ever since. Unfortunately it’s not going to get any better, especially this week with the Freo midfield machine in town.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 36.2%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Ben Fixter, BRL CTR: $219300, 69 B/E, 67.4 avg for 2007, 60.3 avg in last 3
Fixter has been a surprise packet this year, building on a very nice fantasy year in 2006 by going to the next level. However, he is named on the bench again this week, which is rarely a good indicator for fantasy purposes, and his last two weeks have not been quite as good as his first two.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 37.3%. m0nty says: BREAK.

Richard Tambling, RIC CTR: $268900, 77 B/E, 70.8 avg for 2007, 85.3 avg in last 3
Bling could bust through his B/E score in a quarter and then not touch it for the rest of the game, he’s that kind of player. He’s had three poor weeks and two good ones, so he’s hard to pick. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that against the Cats under the Dome, he’s going to make it… though there’s every chance he’ll stink it up.
FFGenie says: BREAK – 35.0%. m0nty says: MAKE.

Feel free to make your own predictions in the comments, and we’ll see who can do the best!

6 Comments

  1. PermsPanthas

    May 4, 2007 at 1:49 pm

    I like the look of Luke Power to MAKE .. He has underperformed the whole year and is starting to look like he is getting going.

    Put the one and only D Kerr on your list for a make – legendary status and such a consistent performer. He will be a big contributor to thrashing the Dogs – How can Brad Johnson score well, when the Eagles get most of the midfield posessions – there’s no one to kick it to him

    I hope one of the VFL Dream Teamers sees this !

  2. Phillip Molly Malone

    May 5, 2007 at 2:35 am

    Not a good start due. 0/1 on the x-man.
    Better luck tomorrow!
    Molly

  3. m0nty

    May 5, 2007 at 2:41 am

    Mmm, at least FFGenie made the same mistake.

  4. grimlock

    May 5, 2007 at 3:24 pm

    Great idea m0nty. However, the data from your FFGenie instance is incorrect. You need to use the latest multiplier/percentage after getting the data for each round. Right click on any row in the table, select “Edit Multiplier/Percentage” and press the “Calculate” button.

    It changes the BE slightly for each player and hence the BE % calculated by FFGenie.

    E.g. FFGenie says that X.Clarke has a 44% chance of breaking even so it was right! :p

  5. m0nty

    May 6, 2007 at 1:35 am

    So far it’s FFGenie 3/4, m0nty 1/4. I’ve got a bit of ground to make up!

  6. Paddy

    May 7, 2007 at 9:49 pm

    Gday Monty

    Firstly, gotta say i love your site. Everything I wanna know and more…

    Just curious how you work out what the player’s Break Even number is?