(You may want to read the overall strategy reasoning before continuing)

High up in the thinking is Nathan G Brown, who’s retailing at $236k. An in-form Brown is a bargain at that price, but with sooo many injury worries, is it worth the risk? Of course, we’ll come back to this question if and when he plays. But when planning your forward-line strategy, don’t forget about Browny.

Best cheap rookies:

Fergus Watts ($94k): Given this bloke’s history of injuries, and St Kilda’s run of outs in that respect so far this season, you’d be forgiven for trying to avoid Watts. He broke his ankle after playing one game last season, and has had further worries this season. Nevertheless, is a talented key forward and likely to play this year; he’s a fourth-year player and thus has a mature body. There’s not a great deal else in the cheap forwards department, so in my opinion Watts is the best bet.

Mitch Morton ($118k): Get him this week, because he’s going to shoot up to around $150k after this week’s games. A very skilled player, and a good bet to break into the Eagles’ best 22, particularly with Mark Nicoski recovering from a shoulder injury.

Jack Riewoldt ($82k): Not sure why Jack hasn’t got a run so far this year, but he’s in there now. Didn’t do anything in his first game, but has enough experience at VFL level to reasonably expect he’ll make a go of it early on in the big league. Added to that is Richmond’s youth policy. Hopefully, Jack gets a run.

Beau Dowler ($82k): This is the bloke who was chosen before Paddy Ryder for the Hawks. He’s still feeling the effects of a pelvis injury sustained just before he was drafted, but played some games last year and should do so before the year’s end too. Not a guaranteed huge scorer, but a handy bet to get some games.

Chris Scott ($111k): Watch this one carefully. Scott is still recovering from a massive hip injury, but the Lions have got him on the list for a reason. If he’s fit, he’ll play – and if he plays, he’ll score ok. As yet, there’s no mention of him returning, but it’s one to keep your eye out for. IF he plays, that price is a bargain.

Leroy Jetta ($100k): Bit of a dark horse, and not the most reliable of choices. Small forwards rarely are – they’re inconsistent, and don’t pick up many stats. However, Jetta has already played this year, and when he recovers from a groin injury should get another run in the seniors.

Best upgrade targets:

Brad Johnson ($363k): Trust me, this is a great price for Johnson. He’s a champion Dream Teamer, who tends to play up the ground if the goals aren’t flowing, thus ensuring a good score no matter what the situation.

Matthew Pavlich ($310k): After some slow games, Pavlich is back to a rock-bottom price for a guy of his capacity. He’ll start to fire up as the Dockers regain their form, and is a great pickup at this price.

Barry Hall ($304k): Another who, like Pavlich, is simply at a rock-bottom price and shouldn’t be discounted.

Alan Didak ($280k): After scoring 80 in his first game back from injury, Didak has dropped off the pace somewhat. However, he’s a good bargain at that price, and should return to top flight (and good scores) later this season. Handy swap for a Franklin or Cloke, too, if that’s something you’re considering.

Ryan O’Keefe ($308k): Yet another rock-bottom priced forward. O’Keefe has slipped away from last year’s great form, but is worth considering as the Swans start to hop back into gear and improving their possession rates.

Jason Akermanis ($265k): Another cheapie. Aker is not the gun he once was, but he’s worth far more than this price. He’s inconsistent, but when he scores, he scores big time. Consider taking a chance - it could be the x-factor that gets you over the line in one or two matches.

Pretty much everyone on BigFooty knew that Ben Hudson was a must-have player this year, and there were a couple of other cheapies who’ve since risen to a more appropriate price. So, the time is right to upgrade to a ‘premium’ ruck – but who? Last year’s All-Australian ruckman is under $300k after a bad start to the year, and there are others more expensive with question marks hanging over their heads. I’m having real trouble picking just who to target here, but I’ll fill you in on my thoughts. (You may want to read my overall strategy reasonings before continuing).

Best cheap rookies:

Ivan Maric ($134k): Maric looked ok last year when he played a few games for Adelaide, and with Bhiglands out, I reckon he’s pretty certain to overtake Jon Griffin and become the second ruckman. However, in terms of value for money, I’m not sure he’s worth this much…

Matthew Leuenberger ($107k): Number four draft pick last year, and although young ruckman generally take time, word on the street is that Loonie could get a run this year. If that happens, his price will rise – he’s a possession-winning ruckman, like Dean Cox. But 107 is a fair bit to fork out for a guy who is far from a certainty to play

John Meesen ($82k): The risk here is that Meesen is behind Hudson and Maric in the Crows’ pecking order (boom boom), and after suffering a serious knee injury pre-season, may be behind Griffin as well. However, he’s solidly built, very talented, and a reasonable stat winner for a ruckman. On the other hand, he’s got very little history of good form in the SANFL. So in summary – he’s cheap, but a big risk

Aisake O’hAilpin ($69k): Now, now, calm down and here me out. I know Aisake isn’t even on a senior list yet, but Pagan loves him and he’s been in good form in the VFL. I reckon the Blues see him playing ruck for a few years to come, and I reckon they’ll take the chance to give him serious gametime this year. It doesn’t hurt that Cain Ackland is in such pathetic form at the moment (and they resorted to a young, skinny Josh Kennedy in the ruck last weekend against
Adelaide). Bring on the Irishman!

Best upgrade targets:

Dean Cox ($347k): Here’s where it gets interesting. Cox is in my opinion clearly the most reliable ruckman in Dream Team, capable of consistent big scores. But he’s injured, and having that amount of money on the bench every second week is a recipe for disaster. Worth seeing how he’s going with the injury before picking him

Jeff White ($350k): White has been a star for the Demons so far this year. However, he has a history of injuries, too, and after being burnt a couple of years ago I’m reluctant to jump on board

Josh Fraser ($363k): In form at the moment, and this won’t last for the whole season. Could be a good scorer, but be aware it won’t stay at this level forever

Brendan Lade ($292k): Certain bet to rise in price, but will he score enough to make it worthwhile? I’m not in it for value increases, I want the best scorer I can get. Not sure if Lade is my man this year, even though Brogan’s injuries have cemented his gametime

Hamish McIntosh ($298k): Wish I had him at the start of the year, but I reckon he’ll run out of steam as the year rolls on. No thanks

Jamie Charman ($256k): I really rate this bloke, but he’s having a shocker so far. See analysis for Lade

David Hille ($274k): Another who’s certain to rise in price, but for some reason I like Hille as a reliable scoring option. The Dons always give him gametime, (although if Laycock can get fit and firing his matchtime will fall), and he’s a goalkicker. The Laycock question is one that I’m not willing to risk, though

Well, there we have it. No real definitive answers from me. However, if I have to nominate my verdict, I reckon I’ll go with Cox, and if he’s hurt I’ll go with Fraser

Player of the week: Luke McPharlin (150)

No-one could top McPharlin’s Friday night game, where he pulled in a whopping amount of marks (from memory, around 20). I didn’t watch the game, and can’t give much context to McPharlin’s score except I haven’t seen him name in a single best players list so far. This means his dead-set excellent fantasy score is even better. Honourable mentions: Tarkyn Lockyer (150), Kane Cornes (142), Cameron Bruce (135), Stephen Gilham (121), Scott Lucas (138)

Biggest disappointment: Heath Shaw (46). From what I have heard, Shaw was tagged off half-back on Saturday night as the Lions sought to shut him out of it. It clearly worked – Shaw had a massive downer, and will sink in price over the coming weeks. Honourable mentions in this category go to Sam Mitchell (48), Lance Franklin (27), and Scott West, whose score of 65 is comparable in drop to every other one mentioned here.

Other points of interest:

Adam Goodes had a pretty convincing return to form against the Bulldogs, scoring 110, which will see his price rise to around $272k. That’s still a verrrry reasonable price for someone of his talent. Peter Everitt also had a return to form, scoring 91, although that may be due to the Dogs’ ruck division which was totally outclassed

Scott Pendlebury popped up with another 84, keeping up a super-consistent season. His lowest score so far has been 70-odd – that’s fantastic

Jimmy Bartel registered a very respectable 111, but it could have been far better after he was on 72 at half-time. It was a similar story everywhere across the ground – the Cats were ripping it til half-time and then faded somewhat. Matthew Stokes did really well with 94 (including seven tackles, which fantasy coaches love), and for Port Nathan Krakouer bagged 75 – his best game to date. Shaun Burgoyne, meanwhile, got 87 which is his best game in four weeks. He’s now marginally more expensive than Goodes, which is still ultra-cheap. Get on him

Brock McLean got an even hundred in his return to AFL for the Demons, an excellent effort in his first game back from injury. Ricky Petterd, meanwhile, got 55 which is his lowest score in four games so far. His price will still rise some, though

Shaun Higgins scored 18 the week after being nominated for the Rising Star award. Crash…

Kent Kingsley nabbed a so-so 60 points in his first AFL game, which is about what you could reasonably expect from the King. Any takers here? I think not…

Fev scored 58 in a very low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon. Nathan Basset, take a bow. Nick Dal Santo, the night before, scored 81 but it won’t stop his price falling away to $333k, which is pretty tempting if not for the cheaper players (Goodes, S. Burgoyne).

Sam Gilbert registered his second 90+ in a row, which means he has to score –73 next week to stay at the same price. This kid is looking fantastic – did anyone predict it? Any bets on how long it will last? For me, hmmm, not that long.

Finally, Kane Tenace scored 94 in the Cats’ win over Port Adelaide, which is his highest score ever. Now, this dude looks a bit ominous. He’s always been talented, but finally looks to have sorted out his kicking, and the results are showing. He racked up huge numbers in the VFL for a few weeks in a row earlier this year, and he may be just about to really turn the corner in AFL as well

No, I’m not talking about me and my teams, although if I don’t pull the finger out soon it’s not going to be pretty. I’m talking about Brett Montgomery who today announces his retirement from AFL football… and who will be enshrined as the answer to the following trivia question:

Who had the worst fantasy scoring season in the history of the AFL, since full statistical records were kept?

Yes, after scoring a respectable 75 in DT and 28 in SC in one preseason game this year, Monty could only manage a handball clanger and a free against in round 1 against Geelong before coming down with what would eventually be a career-ending injury, leaving his season tally at -1 in DT and a whopping -11 in SC. Monty, I salute you. Your name shall always be a signpost of fantasy mediocrity and disaster.

Hey, wait a minute…

In one of the more cringe-inducing late selection changes of the year, Kent Kingsley is likely to make his Tiger debut in place of Matthew Richardson against the Bomber on Saturday according to the Hun. Is Kingsley a candidate for fantasy coaches looking for an upgrade? Surprisingly, there are some numbers that say yes.

He may get a big boost this week because the Bombers are actually Kingsley’s best opponent by far, with an average almost 20 points better than his career numbers. That Bomber average is still only 78.6, though. In the following three weeks he would face Brisbane, Fremantle and Melbourne, two of which he also scores well against.

Then again, a dose of reality here please. This is Kent Kingsley we’re talking about. Playing for the Tigers, not the Cats. If you thought Richo was frustrating, wait until you see Kingsley in the yellow and black. There is a “Richo groove” on the forward pockets at the MCG where he leads to the boundary line week after week, but Kingsley’s going to take that one step further and try to take every single shot at goal from outside the white paint. He’ll pause for photo ops and Sherrin signage with kids at the fence after every glorious point.

It will be awesome.

You may want to read my overall strategy reasoning before continuing.

Best cheap rookies:

David Armitage ($89k): Very highly rated at the Saints, and encouragingly, rotated through the midfield in his first game last week. Lenny Hayes’ return doesn’t augur well for his game time, but then again, Leigh Montagna broke his jaw. If another Saint midfielder goes down with injury, get on him as fast as you can.

Beau Muston ($82k): The Hawks really rate this one. He was in the mix before round one, (before Ellis got the nod ahead of him) and since then hasn’t played. He’ll no doubt get a run this year, (youth policy), and he’s a reasonable chance to keep his spot. As a free-running flanker, loves the uncontested stats.

Mitch Morton ($117k): Classy, classy player. I don’t know how the Eagles keep coming up with them. Make no mistake – Morton is destined for big things, and I reckon West Coast will find room for him very soon. Played his first game for the year two weeks ago, after injuring a knee in the pre-season.

Travis Boak ($103k): Top-five pick last year, obviously, and has been in solid form in the SANFL. I have no doubt Port will give him a crack this year.

Bryce Campbell ($82k): With all the hype around Froggy Davey (I mean Alwyn) this year, Campbell could have been just as good a Dream Team recruit early on. He’s a mature-age first-year player, like Davey, but has been injured until now. Pity, because if he’d got a run it would probably have worked out well. He’s an inside midfielder, Sam Mitchell-style, and I assume is pretty prolific when it comes to stats.

Best upgrade options:

(These first few are the more expensive top-shelf players. The latter bunch are cheaper, more speculative upgrade targets).

Chris Judd ($396k): Gun. I reckon he’s the most consistent Dream Teamer there is. Worth getting.

Kane Cornes ($386k): Should drop this week, but not much. Loves the possessions, and a proven DT star. Not much risk here either.

Cameron Bruce ($375k): Will benefit from Brock McLean’s return to Melbourne, and slightly cheaper than he’s worth right now. Excellent choice.

Sam Mitchell ($380k): In better form than ever for the Hawks, racking up the numbers and pushing himself every week. Wants to be the next Hawks captain.

Simon Goodwin ($337k): Without doubt the cheapest of the in-form midfielders, after some shockers earlier this season including one score of just 4. That’s all in the past, his injury concerns are gone, and he’s ready to fire up. Very smart choice, this one.

Andrew Carrazzo ($344k): Wondering how much more Carrazzo could go up; not much, I reckon. However, he’s playing wonderful football and scoring very well. Not a popular choice, which helps distinguish your team. But make no mistake – we’re in the ‘speculative’ stage of proceedings now.

Steven Salopek ($291k): Like Kane Cornes, loves to get the ball, and is having a poor start to the year. Hasn’t got a lot of publicity, so a rather sly choice. Set to go up.

Shaun Burgoyne ($282k): Will go down in price this week, so ‘wait there’ for a bit. Nevertheless, has had a run of shockers, and his value is approaching the lowest it will ever be. I reckon he’ll get back into top form, although he’ll be rather inconsistent, as the year goes on. Excellent value for money.

Adam Goodes ($257k): Going to rise in price, so this is the week. However, even with a significant rise, will still be as cheap as all buggery. But I wouldn’t recommend Goodes, I’m a bit too worried about the bad form, which I reckon will last for a while yet.

Daniel Kerr ($296k): Now that he’s suspended, you can rest easy for two weeks, safe in the knowledge that while you sort out your backs and forwards, this brilliant opportunity to get Kerr for less than $300k will still exist. Don’t forget – this bloke was killing it earlier in the season. He’s had some bad weeks, some shockers, in a row, but don’t let that stop you.

Andrew Mackie ($301k): Unusual choice, I know. But Mackie has been a real play-maker for the Cats this season, running off half-back. If he can cement that position (and he’s a long way towards doing that, with very little fanfare) watch out. He’ll be a great Dream Team pickup. However, there are injury worries (he missed last week, and is in doubt for this week).

In addition to Bulldogs Ryan Griffen and Jordan McMahon being ruled out for round 9, the Herald-Sun reports that fantasy stalwart Brad Johnson is “50/50″ and Luke Darcy is also doubtful for the Manuka Oval clash against the Swans. Griffen and McMahon have short-term corked thighs, while Darcy’s hip is under scrutiny… and while the Hun says BJ has an ankle problem, the Age says it’s a thigh. Against fantasy killers Sydney, Johnson’s typically solid scoring record was under threat, but this now completely ruins any captaincy thoughts that any DT/SC coach may have been having about him.

Elsewhere in the forwards, Nathan G. Brown is likely to kit up for Coburg this week, which is worth keeping an eye on. And the Adelaide Advertiser says Mark Ricciuto is pushing for selection this week. Few coaches would be brave enough to draft Roo any time soon, but if he does get slotted back into full forward, it will mean good things for Nathan Bock who will get shifted back out to the half-forward line where his fantasy scoring will be boosted.

Best cheap rookies:

James Frawley ($82k): Classy player. Showed good form for the pre-season (as opposed to Petterd) and will benefit from Rivers recovering from injury. May not play every game, but is the best chance to do so from this lot.

Richard Cole ($112k): Sheeds loves this bloke. As an Essendon man, I am very relieved Collingwood picked him before we could in the 2001 ‘superdraft’ – he came two picks after Luke Molan. But I digress. Cole is talented enough to be in our best 22, and as such is a real bargain at that price. Lachlan Hansen (cough) is just 10 grand cheaper. Now, Cole has never been a big DT scorer, but he’s easily better than 112k. Will bounce in price after this week.

Andrejs Everitt ($82k): I know he’s young, and as skinny as a rake, but Everitt has been in excellent form in the VFL and if nothing else should get some ‘blooding’ games later this year. He’s a playmaker off half-back, so is capable of grabbing the stats.

Mitchell Thorp ($100k): Slightly higher price than other rookies, because of his high draft pick status. Trust me, the Hawks are privately in raptures about this bloke. Best of all, for us DTers, is that he’s actually a key forward as opposed to a dour defensive backman. God knows why they’ve put him in this category – but it could be to your benefit. Personally, I am going to get Thorp, but as a forward.

Nathan Brown (Collingwood) ($85k): Another early draft pick, who did play some senior games in the pre-season but hasn’t been seen or heard of since. However, his brother has shown something for West Coast, and Nathan was the more highly-rated of the twins.

Best upgrade options:

Two of the top three scoring backmen to date – Chad Cornes and Heath Shaw – will both fallll in price in coming weeks, so it’s worth waiting for that. Otherwise, consider these blokes:

Michael Johnson ($269k): Not much publicity due to missing the first five matches of the season, but Johnson is a chance to start racking up some bigger numbers if he jumps into the midfield. Keep a close eye on him.

Good news to come from the Saints’ camp. Nick Riewoldt’s rumoured injury scans have amounted to little, as can be seen in this article from today’s Herald Sun:

Nick Riewoldt is believed to have suffered a hamstring scare late in the loss to Hawthorn on Saturday night, but he has been declared fit after precautionary scans.

Lenny Hayes is also a chance to play after suffering a broken collarbone, but the bad news is that Jason Gram won’t play, due to a back complaint. This could set Lethal Leigh Fisher up for another 140+ score - but I’m not betting on it.

The real story, Dream Team-wise, is that Fergus Watts is in the squad that’s flown to Perth. This kid has always been a talent, and has really struggled with injuries for the last two seasons. But I know for a fact he was in the squad of last year’s Dream Team winner in the AFL comp - he is very highly rated. Keep your eye out.

Editor’s note: Tom, don’t forget Xavier Clarke, whose Windy Hill flu has magically transformed into a calf strain that will put him out for two to four weeks, and Clinton Jones who won’t recover from his collarbone injury for another month. Personally I am going to try never to draft a Saint ever again.

When making your strategic mid-season moves, here’s some tips on what to look for.

Upgrading:

A very important choice. Just like Jimmy Bartel and Jordan Lewis exploded out of the box with some huge scores early in the season, a similar burst may see someone available at $350k be the next massive scorer.

You may also want to look at the cheaper guns who’ve fallen away in price, like Adam Goodes or Shaun Burgoyne, who are both well below the $300k mark. This frees up more cash for other upgrades, since these players have probably bottomed out in price.

But this tactic is fraught with risk; even if Goodes recovers to score around 80-odd, rising up to around $310k, it’s still not the output you need to really start blitzing it. I would only go down this road if you’ve got the trades in reserve for further upgrades, in case the performance doesn’t return to absolute elite levels.

Downgrading:

You might be tempted to chuck any old bargain-priced unknown in your team, freeing up some cash to buy a gun. But if you pick your rookies very slyly, it gives you some handy benefits:

They play regularly, and are a reliable back-up. The right rookies, (let’s face it, they’re usually top-20 draft picks), will slot straight into their side’s 22. This means they play most games, providing you with a ready-made inclusion to cover one- or two-week injuries.

They rise in price. Duh, I hear you say. Well, yeah, but if they rise enough and you’ve got the trades, you can do another upgrade in the last few weeks of the year. Converting a Travis Cloke to a Scott Lucas could be the difference between you winning and losing an all-important final.

Leave something for injuries:

Another no-brainer, but don’t use all your trades for upgrades! It’ll all go down the toilet if a couple of wrong turns hit your team and you end up playing three or four ‘donut’ players (= score 0) every week.